At FantasyLabs, Bargain Rating is a metric we use to compare the relative costs of players on DraftKings and FanDuel using percentile rankings. It features prominently in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically our industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.
This week, I will be applying Bargain Rating concepts to the Week 4 XFL slate in order to identify the top values.
Be sure to check out our Week 4 XFL fantasy projections, which will be updated based on injury reports and depth chart news as we head into the weekend.
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XFL Quarterbacks
DraftKings: BattleHawks QB Jordan Ta’amu ($9,500, 100% Bargain Rating)
Jordan Ta’amu was featured in this same space last week as the top overall bargain on FanDuel, and he shows up again in Week 4, this time as the top overall bargain on DraftKings. Priced as the QB3 on FanDuel, Ta’amu is the QB5 on DraftKings, where he’s a whopping $2,500 cheaper than Roughnecks quarterback P.J. Walker.
Ta’amu did his fantasy investors no favors in Week 3 with a six-point performance, but it’s easy to explain away his poor fantasy production. Due to game script — the BattleHawks led the Guardians 23-3 at halftime — Ta’amu had just 18 pass attempts, whereas he had 37 in Week 2. He also ran the ball only three times in Week 3, down from 17 in Weeks 1-2.
But Ta’amu might have similar usage in Week 4, as the BattleHawks are currently 12-point home favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook against the Dragons. If St. Louis gets out to another early lead, the ‘Hawks are likely to take the ball out of Ta’amu’s hands and lean on the run. For that reason, Ta’amu will be best deployed in guaranteed prize pools only, despite his excellent Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
FanDuel: Defenders QB Cardale Jones ($19, 93% Bargain Rating)
On the topic of expensive quarterbacks who busted in Week 3, I present Cardale Jones. Unlike Ta’amu, who simply didn’t see much action, Jones had a poor fantasy performance because he played terribly. He threw four interceptions and was regularly inaccurate. As Tony Marquis notes in his Week 4 air yards piece, of all the air yards Jones threw last week, 99 went out of bounds, 71 landed more than five yards away from a receiver and 76 were intercepted.
After cruising through home games against inferior opponents in Weeks 1-2, Cardale failed his first real test against the Wildcats in Week 3. DFS players now have to decide which Cardale is the real one: The MVP candidate we saw in Weeks 1-2, or the third-stringer we saw Week 3. Or a combination of the two?
Although the Defenders are on the road once again in Week 4, they are facing a Vipers defense that has allowed an XFL-high nine touchdowns this season. If Jones struggles again this week, it will be time to sound the alarm, but I am viewing him as a bounceback candidate, particularly on FanDuel, where he is priced as a mid-range option at $19. Backup Tyree Jackson relieved Jones last week in the fourth quarter and was utilized on point-after-touchdown attempts in Week 1. It’s possible that Jones will have less leeway for mistakes this weekend, and if so, we could see Jackson come into the game earlier if Jones struggles. For that reason, Jones is a risky cash game option but an excellent tournament play on FanDuel.
XFL Running Backs
DraftKings: Dragons RB Trey Williams (DraftKings: $4,400, 77% Bargain Rating)
Atop the DraftKings bargain list this week are several speculative players priced at the $3,000 minimum, including Nick Brossette, Justin Stockton, Khalid Abdullah and Lenard Tillery, but all these players have zero-point floors and are best utilized as dart throws pending further injury news.
With at least 12 opportunities (rushes plus targets) in each game this season, Trey Williams is worthy of consideration on DraftKings, where he is priced as the RB13. On the surface, this is an abysmal spot for Williams, who plays as part of a three-back committee on a team currently listed as a 12-point road dog. But if Seattle does fall behind St. Louis, the team could lean more heavily on Williams, the team’s best pass-catching back (eight receptions on nine targets).
The Dragons have targeted backs on at least 20% of their pass attempts in each of their two losses. Williams could get 4-5 targets against the BattleHawks this weekend in addition to his rushing workload.
FanDuel: Defenders RB Donnel Pumphrey ($14, 88% Bargain Rating)
Jones isn’t the only Defender underpriced on FanDuel after last week’s blowout loss to the Wildcats. The top Bargain Rating on FanDuel at running back belongs to Jhurell Pressley (shoulder), but at the time of this writing, Pressley is uncertain to play in Week 4 after popping up on this week’s injury report. If Pressley is out or limited, teammate Donnel Pumphrey will be a strong option, especially on FanDuel at $14.
In XFL DFS, it’s difficult to find trustworthy options at running back, but Pumphrey’s usage through Weeks 1-3 has made him one of the most reliable at the position. While his rushing workload has fluctuated between 4-12 carries, Pumphrey has seen at least three targets in every game this season. If Pressley is unable to go, Pumphrey could get 12-plus carries, and that volume would make him an intriguing option in all formats.
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XFL Wide Receivers
DraftKings: DeAndre Thompkins ($5,200, 87% Bargain Rating)
On more than half of the teams in the Week 3 DraftKings $300,000 Saturday Special tournament, DeAndre Thompkins did not make many new fans with his 2.8 fantasy points. Given his dud performance, Thompkins will almost certainly have a reduced ownership rate in Week 4 despite being $500 cheaper.
Although Thompkins saw only three targets in Week 3, he was on the field for 79% of DC’s pass attempts, an 8% increase from the previous week (per Pro Football Focus). Perhaps more important than his disappointing box score stats was his solidification of a full-time role in the offense. If you buy into a Defenders bounceback in Week 4, Thompkins approaches must-play status on DraftKings.
FanDuel: Mekale McKay ($13, 90% Bargain Rating)
For the third consecutive week, Mekale McKay stands out as a major bargain on FanDuel. Despite seeing only 12 targets in Weeks 1-3, McKay is more expensive than alpha receivers Keenan Reynolds and Daniel Williams on DraftKings, while on FanDuel he is priced alongside teammate Austin Duke, who has been on the field for only 34 total snaps this season.
It feels gross rostering any Guardians player after the team imploded in Weeks 2-3, but McKay remains the most likely fantasy contributor for New York. Although McKay saw only two targets last week, the team was forced to use all three of its quarterbacks after starter Matt McGloin exited in the first half with a thorax injury and backup Marquise Williams gave way to third-stringer Luis Perez in the fourth quarter due to ineffectiveness.
If New York back at home in Week 4 somehow has a functional offense, McKay could significantly outperform his cheap FanDuel salary.
Credit: Joe Scarnici/Getty Images.
Pictured: Cardale Jones
