The PGA TOUR is back in action for the final tournament before the FedExCup Playoffs. The top 70 players in the FedExCup standings qualify for the playoffs that begin next week. Players outside the top 70 will get a few weeks off before the FedExCup Fall when they get another chance to secure their PGA TOUR cards for next season.
The final sprint to qualify for the playoffs will take place at Sedgefield Country Club during this week’s Wyndham Championship. The event dates all the way back to 1938, when it began as the Greater Greensboro Open, and it has been played at Sedgefield since 2008. In 2007, the event locked into this spot in the calendar and has offered plenty of drama while giving players a chance to jump-start a playoff run. Coming down the stretch on Sunday, players will be watching both the leaderboard for this tournament along their projected FedExCup finish to see if they’ll qualify for next week or not.
Lucas Glover started his big run last year at this event, getting a win and carrying his momentum all the way through the TOUR Championship. Glover comes into his title defense again in need of a bit of a boost, beginning at No. 76 in the standings. Overall, 40 of the top 70 in the FedExCup standings will tee it up in Greensboro. Coming into the week, Frenchman Victor Perez sits at No. 71 and is one of about 20 players who played at the Olympics and will turn around and tee it up in Greensboro.
Many of the biggest names will not play this week as they prepare for a three-tournament playoff run, but there are plenty of players looking to play their win into that top 70. Almost all the players ranked 50-90 are in the field this week, providing plenty of fluidity in the rankings and plenty of drama. At the top of the DraftKings salary structure, Sungjae Im, Shane Lowry, Billy Horschel, and Si Woo Kim are the four players with six-figure salaries.
The course they’ll face is a par 70 designed by Donald Ross. Even though it has the signature small and undulating greens that Ross is known for, it usually yields low scores, with the winner at -20 or lower in seven of the last eight years. Since nine of the 12 par-4s are less than 445 yards, many approach shots are with short irons and wedges, so players with good short games typically show well at this venue. The top metrics to target this week include Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Par 4, and Strokes Gained putting on Bermuda greens.
The focus of this post is strong GPP options who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain, looking for under-owned options.
All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Stroked Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
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Billy Horschel $10,200
Of the big names in the field, Horschel comes in with the best SimLeverage. He has the 10th-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections and the 10th-highest Perfect% in the field, but his projected ownership is extremely low at under 15%, which is enough to make him a nice contrarian pay-up option.
Horschel definitely has the course history to be a strong consideration here. He has made the cut in 10 of his 11 career appearances at the venue with five top 25s, four top 10s, and a runner-up finish in 2020. Since then, he finished 27th in 2022 and fourth last year.
He also has some strong momentum coming into the week after finishing runner-up at The Open Championship in his last start. He withdrew just before the 3M Open, so fantasy players may not trust him after that late switch, but his form when he has taken the course has been pretty solid overall lately. Billy Ho ranks third in the field in Total Strokes Gained over the last six months and in the top 20 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green over his last 12 rounds.
If coming back to the Bermuda of Sedgefield’s unique greens is enough to jump-start his putter, Horschel could step up and deliver another great week heading into the playoffs.
Davis Thompson $9,200
Thompson has been one of the breakout stars of the season, and he’s very affordable at barely over $9,000 with an extremely high ceiling. Even though he’s a chalkier play than I would like, he still has a positive SimLeverage and offers too much potential to pass up at this price.
Before the PGA TOUR headed to Scotland for two weeks, Thompson completed an impressive run of three straight top 10s, which culminated in his first career PGA TOUR win at the John Deere Classic. He made the cut at both the Scottish Open and The Open Championship before getting a couple of weeks off. He’ll return to action this week at Sedgefield, where he finished T22 last year.
Thompson leads the field in Total Strokes Gained over the last 20 rounds and the last 50 rounds and ranks second in the field in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green over his last 36 rounds. He has shown off a well-balanced game and risen to No. 24 in the FedExCup standings. He should be set for a deep playoff run, but his ability to go low in a hurry should fit this course well.
Of the players under $10,000, he has the highest Perfect%, which gives him the third-highest in the entire field. He also has the fourth-highest median and ceiling projection in the entire field, so getting him for only the eighth-highest salary is a good place to start your lineup builds either in balanced or stars & scrubs constructions.
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Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Cameron Davis $8,900
Davis snuck up a little bit with his win at the Rocket Mortgage Classic just over a month ago, but he backed that up with a pair of top-26 finishes at the Scottish Open and the 3M Open. On the season, he has made 15 of 19 cuts with six top 25s.
At Sedgefield, Davis has an outstanding track record with three top 25s in three appearances, including a high point of a T7 last year. Davis leads the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over his last 12 rounds and is also in the top 10 in Total Strokes Gained and Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green over that span.
His ownership projection is barely over 10%, but he has the seventh-shortest odds in the field for a top-10 finish, according to Vegas. It’s also worth noting that his win in Detroit came on a Donald Ross design where he had a good course history, especially with his flat stick. He will look to follow a similar script this week, and he’s a great fantasy option under $9,000 if he can post another big week.
Nicolai Hojgaard $8,200
Hojgaard is the first of my picks for this week who starts outside the top 70 and is looking to move up the standings. Hojgaard starts 80th, so he’ll need to at least make the cut and post a strong finish to be set up for his FedExCup Playoff debut.
Last year, he surged to a T14 at this event, but he didn’t qualify for the playoffs since he was playing on Special Temporary Membership. The 23-year-old Dane has made the cut in six straight events including a top 10 at the Olympics last week. In that start at Le Golf National, he set the course record on Saturday and came up just short of a medal. He has already had plenty of international success, including made cuts recently at the Scottish Open and The Open Championship and three DP World Tour victories.
Hojgaard has the fifth-highest ceiling projection of players under $9,000 and the second-highest SimLeverage of the 11 players priced in the $8,000s. His ownership projection is just under 10%, but his potential upside is much higher than the other players with similar ownership numbers. He has been very strong on approach lately, gaining multiple strokes on approach in five of his last six starts, and his putting at Sedgefield last year was exceptional. If his putter cooperates like it did last year, he could be set up for a breakthrough win this week.
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Value PGA DFS Picks
Eric Cole $7,700
Last year’s Rookie of the Year hasn’t had the season he would have hoped for, but he does come into this week at No. 54 in the FedExCup standings. After a slow start, he has picked things up with five straight made cuts, including top 10s at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and the John Deere Classic, before making the cut in each of the two Scottish events.
Cole has the second-highest SimLeverage and the fourth-highest Leverage of all players in the $7,000s since his ownership projection is under 2.5%. He has the ninth-highest Perfect% in the price range as well. He ranks seventh in the field in both Total Strokes Gained and Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green over the last 16 rounds, and his short game has been back on point.
Last year, Cole finished in the top 15 at this event, which makes sense since the setup allows him to rely on his excellent wedge and short-iron game. He also has putted well on this surface, and he should be able to build on his strong finishes in Detroit and Quad Cities to secure a spot in the playoffs. He makes a lot of sense for DFS at this price since his ownership projection is so low, and he has the potential to go off.
C.T. Pan $7,000
As we get lower into the salary structure, it’s time to swing for the fences with a few of these GPP picks. Pan has shown a very high ceiling when he’s at the top of his game, but he has also been wildly inconsistent and dealt with some injuries. There’s a chance that playing at Sedgefield will be enough to vault him into a high finish.
He finished in the top 20 at the Olympics last week after posting a runner-up finish at the John Deere Classic early in July. However, those were his only top 25s since the Mexico Open, where he spiked for a third-place finish.
Pan starts the week at No. 89 in the FedExCup standings, so he will need a big week at Sedgefield to get into the playoffs. The good news for Pan and his fantasy prospects is that he has a great history at this course. He finished co-runner-up at this event in 2018 behind Brandt Snedeker back in 2018 and has made the cut in five of his six appearances with a WD in 2022, the only time he failed to play the weekend.
His recent form and tendency to have spike weeks make him worth a look at only $7,000.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Ben Kohles $6,900
Kohles has the highest SimLeverage of the 92 players under $7,000 once again this week. He continues to be a cut-making machine, making nine cuts in his last 10 tournaments. He finished runner-up back at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson and exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of those 10 events.
Last season, Kohles earned Korn Ferry Tour Player of the Year honors, and he is in a good position to keep his full-time PGA TOUR card. He comes into the week 81st in the FedExCup standings and has made the cut in two of his three career appearances at the Wyndham, including two years ago in his most recent appearance. Another strong showing could move him above the line and into the playoffs.
Kohles has the third-highest Perfect% under $7,000, so even though his floor remains low, he’s worth taking a shot on with his extremely low ownership projection of only 1%.
Brandon Wu $6,300
Wu is another player who has had good spike weeks in low-scoring events, and he always has a high ceiling for his salary. He missed the cut at the Barracuda Championship and 3M Open in his last two events, but before that, he posted a top 10 at the ISCO Championship on the DP World Tour. That finish came at the end of a run of 4-of-5 made cuts.
After being a standout star at Stanford, Wu hasn’t quite hit it big on the PGA TOUR yet. He has flashed upside, though, and could use a strong finish to climb up the standings to either force his way into the playoffs or at least his standing heading into the Fall Series. Wu has made the cut in each of his two career appearances at Sedgefield with a top 10 in 2022 and a T58 last year.
He has the fifth-highest SimLeverage of the players under $6,500 and the 11th-highest ceiling projection. He ranks in the top 12 in this field in Strokes Gained: Putting over his last 12 rounds, and his previous high points and strong course history make him stand out as my favorite long-shot play of the week.
