It has been a wild regular season from many different perspectives on the PGA TOUR, and it comes to a close this week at what should be a thrilling tournament in Greensboro, North Carolina. Most of the drama will come from players trying to make a last-minute push for the postseason. The FedExCup playoffs have a slightly different format this season, and the main change is that only the top 70 players will qualify for next week’s playoff opener at the St. Jude Championship, while the other players will get a few weeks off before playing for their PGA TOUR cards throughout the fall events.
Last year, Tom Kim burst onto the scene with a win at this event and jumped right into the playoffs. He won’t be able to defend his title defense this year, though, after suffering a sprained ankle at The Open Championship, where he still ground out a tie for second. In the absence of Kim, the players who finished in the top five and are back this year include Sungjae Im, Ben Griffin, Max McGreavy, Taylor Moore, and Russell Henley.
Most of this week’s field consists of players right around that top-70 line. Austin Eckroat comes into the week at No. 70, right on the bubble just behind Cam Davis, Ben Griffin, J.J. Spaun, and Vincent Norrman, who are currently in position to make the playoffs. Just outside the top 70 coming into the week are Ben Taylor, Garrick Higgo, and K.H. Lee. With all the points available at this event, though, there’s sure to be plenty of players moving in and out of the playoffs. Some of the biggest names who need strong showings to advance are Justin Thomas, Shane Lowry, and Adam Scott.
While it’s always fun to watch those players on the bubble battle to make the playoffs, the highest-ranked golfers in action this week are also crucial for fantasy purposes. The highest-ranked player in the field in the Official World Golf Rankings is Sam Burns, while Si Woo Kim is the highest-ranked player in the FedExCup standings, just ahead of Burns, Adam Schenk, Denny McCarthy, and Chris Kirk.
The Wyndham Championship has been played at Sedgefield Country Club since 2008, and the famous Donald Ross design continues to be one of the most recognizable for hardcore golf fans. To see what skills lead to success on this track, check out Matt Vincenzi’s stats preview.
This weekly GPP post focuses on players with lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success. The picks here are designed to go against the grain and take advantage of players that may be overlooked or not selected due to risk factors.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk if it raises the lineup’s ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that usually lead to large-field success.
GPP contests are contests that have large numbers of entries and pay out huge prizes to the top few percent. Since this week is a major, the largest GPP on DraftKings is the $1M Summer Sand Trap, which awards $200K to first place.
The players highlighted will be good options if they deliver in all formats, but they come with risk factors that usually keep them from being the safest plays. Safety and reliability should be the focus of lineups in cash and double-up contests, where finishing in the top spot isn’t quite as important. To find specific guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
Usually, I rely on the Stroked Gained Model, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players that gain shots on approach since week-to-week putting performance can be highly volatile, even for the best players on the PGA TOUR.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
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High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Russell Henley $10,200
There are four players with salaries of at least $10K and 10 players with salaries of at least $9K in the field this week. Henley is my preferred pay-up option from the top of the salary structure due to his course history and current form, which combine to give him a very high ceiling.
Henley has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in the entire field, just behind Hideki Matsuyama. Henley not only comes at a discount compared to Matsuyama and Sungjae Im, but he also has lower projected ownership.
Even though he has the fifth-highest projected ownership in the field, Henley still projects to be under-owned compared to his ceiling, his projection, and his Perfect%. In fact, Henley brings the fifth-highest SimLeverage in the field. He also has the third-best odds in Vegas to win the tournament and the second-best to finish in the top 10, so getting him at the fifth-highest ownership brings some decent leverage.
Henley is coming off a missed cut at The Open Championship, but he was playing well prior to that tournament, especially on low-scoring courses like Sedgefield. Henley posted top 20s in seven of his previous nine tournaments before struggling at Hoy Lake. Over his past 10 tournaments, he has an average Plus/Minus of 7.61 DraftKings points.
He also brings a great history to this track. Henley has finished in the top 10 for three straight years. The course fits his ability to drive the ball accurately to set up good approach shots to small greens. If his putter cooperates, the noted SG: Approach specialist could be looking at his fourth straight top 10 at Sedgefield and possibly even his second PGA TOUR win of the season.
Si Woo Kim $9,000
Kim is another strong fit for this course, and he has already claimed one victory at the venue back in 2016. He also lost in a playoff in 2021 and finished in the top 10 on two other trips. While it seems like he’s been around a while, he’s still just 28 years old and entering the prime of his PGA TOUR career.
Throughout his career, Kim has often been a volatile option offering extreme results. He can contend and even dominate on any course when at his best, but he can also miss the cut in any tournament. That kind of volatility can scare off some fantasy players, but for GPP, it’s worth the risk to get such a high ceiling. Kim has the fourth-highest ceiling projection in the entire field this week and the highest of any player priced below $10K.
This year he has actually been more consistent than usual, making the cut in 19 of his 24 events and posting nine top 25s. He also claimed his fourth PGA TOUR win this year, all the way back at the Sony Open in Hawaii in January.
He missed the cut at the Travelers and The Open Championship in his two most recent starts, which is part of the reason why he comes in with a more palatable salary and ownership projection. His has still shown a high ceiling if you look back a little further, with a runner-up finish at the Byron Nelson and a top five at the Memorial.
Kim is projected for 18% ownership but is in 19% of optimal lineups in the sims. Only Justin Thomas and players priced over $10K have higher Perfect%, so Kim looks to be poised to outperform his ownership and his salary.
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Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Cameron Davis $8,800
Davis has the highest SimLeverage in the entire field and comes in with a surprisingly low ownership projection of just 6%. Many of the golfers priced around him, like Kim, Stephen Jaeger, Denny McCarthy, and Aaron Rai, all check in with over twice that much projection ownership.
Despite that low ownership, Davis has the second-highest ceiling projection of all players under $9K. He actually has the exact same Vegas odds as Jaeger and Alex Smalley but comes with less than half their projected ownership.
While dealing with an illness early in the season, Davis struggled and missed multiple cuts. He has looked much better lately and made the cut in three of his four tournaments since the U.S. Open, including posting an impressive top 10 last week at the 3M Open, which he finished off with a 65 on Sunday. While he hasn’t been as consistent as some of the other options around this salary, he brings plenty of momentum after that strong Sunday finish.
At this event, Davis has posted a top 25 in each of his two previous appearances in 2019 and 2020.
He’s a little like Si Woo Kim in that he tends to be very boom-or-bust, but I love his upside at this price and ownership.
Chris Kirk $8,200
The only other player priced between $8K and $9K with a positive SimLeverage of more than 1% is Chris Kirk, who is another strong leverage play to consider. He is projected for 13% ownership but is in over 15% of optimal lineups. Davis and Kirk are in more optimal lineups than any of the other players priced under $9K despite their low ownership projections, and Kirk has the third-highest ceiling projection of players under $9K as well.
Kirk has a long history at this tournament, making the cut in six of his seven appearances with a pair of top 25s. His best career finish was a T11 in 2018.
After that season, Kirk had multiple down years but has surged back into relevancy with a bounce-back season. He won The Honda Classic in a playoff which was one of his four top 10s and seven top 25s. Even though he missed the cut at The Open Championship, Kirk made the cut and finished in the top 25 at the Rocket Mortgage and the John Deere Classic in his two most recent events in the U.S.
Playing Kirk isn’t as flashy as some other plays in this salary range, but he’s a proven option on this course and seems to be being overlooked.
Value PGA DFS Picks
Vincent Norrman $7,800
Norrman got his breakthrough win at the Barbasol Championship three weeks ago, and the 25-year-old Swede has continued to post strong finishes. He finished T25 at the Barracuda Championship and T50 last week at the 3M Open. He has made the cut in seven of his past 10 tournaments and climbed up to 66th in FedExCup standings. Another strong finish this week will move the rookie into the playoffs.
Last week, he struggled on the greens at TPC Twin Cities but finished second in the field in SG: Off The Tee and sixth in SG: Approach. If his irons stay so sharp and his putter comes around, he could contend again at Sedgefield.
Despite his recent success, Norrman is projected for under 7% ownership. He has the highest SimLeverage of any player under $8K and the sixth-highest SimLeverage in the entire field. He also ranks in the top five of players under $8K in ceiling projection, median projection, and floor projection.
Kevin Yu $7,000
I’m going back to Yu for a second straight week after he made the cut and finished T37 as a player just over $7K last week. His salary dropped $100, and he brings the highest projected Plus/Minus and the most projected Points per Salary in the entire field this week.
Yu has been limited to just nine events in 2023 due to injury, but he has shown a high ceiling when in action. He has made six cuts in that span, highlighted by finishing T6 at the John Deere Classic and T7 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am back in February. His limited events will probably keep him out of the playoffs, but with a good week at Sedgefield followed by a strong Fall Series, he should be able to keep his PGA TOUR card.
Last week, Yu looked fantastic on Saturday, shooting a 29 on the front nine but stumbled on Sunday with a +1. He’s still seeking consistency in his game, but at this price, he’s a great swing for the fences with plenty of upside. He’s projected for under 6% ownership, which gives him the fifth-highest SimLeverage of all players under $8K.
A couple of other great values to consider in this price range are Nickolas Lindheim and M.J. Daffue.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Peter Kuest $6,800
Kuest is in this week’s tournament on a sponsor exemption after earning Special Temporary Membership with a strong run of results earlier this summer. The BYU standout has made the cut in six of his seven PGA TOUR events since May, with a T4 at the Rocket Mortgage and a T17 at the John Deere Classic as his best two finishes of the year.
His strong recent form helps Kuest match five Pro Trends this week, while no other player under $7K matches more than three. He has the second-highest SimLeverage for all players priced under $7K and the fifth-highest ceiling projection. No player under $7K shows up in more optimal lineups in our sims.
Kuest’s length off the tee has been impressive during his recent run of form, and his game should fit the demands of Sedgefield this week. Last year, Kim used his Special Temporary Membership to get the win at the Wyndham, and Kuest will look to follow that template this week.
C.T. Pan $6,700
For the last sleeper pick of this week, let’s take a look at Pan, who has been very inconsistent lately but brings an extremely high ceiling.
Over the summer, Pan posted top 5s at the Byron Nelson and the RBC Canadian Open but also missed the cut at the Travelers and the Scottish Open. Last week, he made the cut but finished just T70 at the 3M Open. The good news, though, was that he was able to play all four rounds without any injury issues after dealing with a wrist issue that kept him sidelined earlier this season.
Throughout his career, Pan has contended on shorter courses like Sedgefield, which yield low scores. He won his one PGA TOUR career title at Harbour Town in 2019. On this course specifically, he has also had success throughout his career, making the cut four times in his first four tries before being forced to withdraw in his most recent appearance in 2022. His best finish here came in 2018 when he finished co-runner-up, three shots behind Brandt Snedeker.
Pan should have low ownership with his recent lack of results but brings a high ceiling as a boom-or-bust sleeper play.
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