WR/CB Matchups
Not all cornerbacks are created equal. It is important to determine which wide receivers to upgrade and downgrade based on opponent and to exploit the best matchups.
The weekly WR/CB Matchups series will pinpoint situations to target or avoid based on the new FantasyLabs NFL Matchups page.
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DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller vs. the Chicago Secondary
Last year, the Bears secondary actually held wide receivers to a -0.83 Plus/Minus on DraftKings:
A lot of this had to do with the fact that the Bears were terrible against the run, ranking 32nd in rush defense according to Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric. The Bears spent the offseason bolstering their front seven but did nothing to upgrade their secondary, so they’re not likely to improve their 2015 pass defense ranking of 23rd. Right cornerback Kyle Fuller recently had a minor knee surgery and is hopeful to play, but it is hard to imagine that he will be 100 percent. This unit is not especially talented and is banged up. Fire up Nuk and Fuller.
Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne
Per Pro Football Focus, Carr and Claiborne are the 74th- and 103rd-ranked cornerbacks coming into this season and both have underperformed greatly since joining the Cowboys in 2012. Beckham should see both of them on the majority of his routes and will not have any problem getting separation.
In the slot, OBJ could see some of Orlando Scandrick, the most talented corner in Dallas, but Scandrick is rarely healthy and is already dealing with a groin strain. The major concern for Beckham is that the Cowboys will do their best to play ball control and limit his targets, but he should have opportunities to do some damage all the same.
Julio Jones vs. Vernon Hargreaves and Alterraun Verner
Welcome to the NFL, rookie. Vernon Hargreaves gets his first NFL regular season action against Julio and I would bet that he will struggle. The Bucs have also considered using both Hargreaves and Verner at the right corner spot this weekend, with Hargreaves moving into the slot in three-wide sets. Verner is an even juicier target than Hargreaves, grading out as PFF’s 90th-ranked cornerback in 2015.
The Bucs drafted Hargreaves in part because their secondary was abysmal in 2015, allowing wide receivers an average of +1.05 Plus/Minus on DraftKings:
Expect a hot start for Jones.
Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders vs. Daryl Worley and James Bradberry
These Panthers’ names aren’t easily recognizable because they are rookies. While Ron Rivera has not officially named them the starters, they are the odds-on favorites. They were selected in the second and third rounds, so they might not be horrible one day, but in Week 1 they’re going to rookies in their first NFL game. They’ll probably be horrible.
The problem for Thomas and Sanders is that they are stuck with 2015 seventh-round draft pick Trevor Siemian at quarterback. With that being said, these guys might be exploitable tournament plays in Thursday contests because both of them should be able to win their matchup. Make sure to check out their ownership projections on the Matchups page.
Jordan Matthews vs. Jamar Taylor
There are not many good things to say about Taylor. Simply put, he played so poorly that not even the Dolphins defense wanted him back. Taylor finished last season with a 36.7 cornerback grade and 2014 with a 47.4 per PFF. (Yes, that is out of 100.) He is now the current favorite to start for the Browns on Week 1 and should spend his day ‘covering’ Matthews.
Not only is Matthews much better than Taylor. He is also five inches taller. While I am not overly excited about the Eagles passing game with rookie Carson Wentz under center, this is a matchup that JMatt should easily dominate.
UPDATE (9/8/16): The Browns have decided to promote Taylor to a starting role on the outside over Tramon Williams. This will push Williams into the nickel corner position and match him up with Matthews most of the game. Williams is a much better player than Taylor and I am shocked that the Browns are making this switch. With that being said, and the switch being made, I would now prefer similar options in Matthews’ price range, such as Sammy Watkins and Eric Decker.
Lions Receivers vs. the Indianapolis Secondary
It is almost unbelievable to think that the Colts will be starting Antonio Cromartie on the outside this Sunday. Cromartie has no business being on an NFL field at this point in his career, but yet here we are. Marvin Jones and Golden Tate should both see plenty of Cromartie and Patrick Robinson on Sunday, giving both a good shot to beat Cro for a long one.
Also, Anquan Boldin will matchup in the slot against Darius Butler, who consistently allowed slot receivers to beat him for touchdowns in 2015. Boldin makes for an intriguing pivot away from Jones in guaranteed prize pools.
Kamar Aiken vs. Nickell Robey
The Bills actually did alright in pass defense last year, ranking 18th by FO’s DVOA. It didn’t help them that Stephon Gilmore played only 12 games. Ronald Darby and Gilmore are both impressively top-20 starting corners according to PFF. But Nickell Robey (who mans the slot) ranks 87th. Last year, he ‘helped’ the Bills surpass the league average of passing production allowed in the middle of the field by 34.1 percent (FO’s DVOA):
Steve Smith and Mike Wallace could struggle on the outside against Darby and Gilmore, and more passes than we otherwise might expect could be directed toward Aiken, the favorite to start in the slot.
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Amari Cooper vs. Delvin Breaux
A guy from Louisiana with the last name ‘Breaux’? It’s like he was born to play for the Saints, and he’s pretty good. While the Saints passing defense was abysmal last year, Delvin quietly showed some star potential. He finished 2015 with an 85.2 rating (per PFF) and is the 10th-rated cornerback this weekend. Even if Cooper isn’t shadowed by Breaux, he will likely be running more than half of his routes on his side of the field.
Julian Edelman vs. Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu
Edelman has it rough this weekend. First of all, for the first time in his career he won’t be catching passes from Tom Brady. On top of that, it’s possible that Edelman might be shadowed by Peterson when he is on the outside. He’ll certainly see his coverage at points. And then he will likely be matching up a lot with Mathieu when he moves into the slot. Mathieu plays safety, but he also plays nickel corner, where he excels. Mathieu is the highest-graded PFF corner playing this week. Peterson is the third-highest.
