The Tight End Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
It’s Week 13: The autumn byes have passed. Winter is coming. Although it has wider applicability, this breakdown is explicitly for the 13-game DraftKings and 14-game FanDuel main slates.
The Big Two (or Three)
In the good ol’ days of yore, one player used to dominate the top of the tight end salary scale. Now we have a committee.
- Rob Gronkowski ($7,300 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel)
- Travis Kelce ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)
- Zach Ertz ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)
Once more unto the breach, dear friends.
To Gronk or not to Gronk?
Whenever Gronk is in a slate one of the first questions daily fantasy players must ask themselves is whether they wish to Gronk. When healthy, Gronk’s the Shaquille O’Neal of tight ends. Even though Gronk has missed 25 games in his career, he leads the league with 75 touchdowns receiving since 2010. First on the Patriots with 7.4 targets per game, Gronk is atypical in that, despite his size and prowess as a blocker, he leads all starting tight ends with an average depth of target of 12.2 yards. Of all the receivers quarterback Tom Brady has targeted in the post-Deflategate suspension era, Gronk has gifted Brady with the highest adjusted yards per attempt at 13.1. Gronk often isn’t the best DFS play, but he’s still the best tight end in the league.
Playing on the road against the Bills, the Patriots lead the slate with an implied total of 28.5 points as -8.5 favorites. Although he is a matchup-proof receiver, Gronk has a tough matchup. The Bills are 12th against tight ends in Football Outsiders’ pass Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), and that number might underrepresent their defensive abilities. Gronk will likely be covered by a combination of safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde: They are both top-four pass defenders at the position with Pro Football Focus coverage grades above 90.0. Gronk won’t have an easy go of it, but he could get extra targets with wide receiver Chris Hogan (shoulder) likely to miss his fourth straight game. Gronk is tied for the position-high with six Pro Trends on DraftKings, and he leads the slate with a 99 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel. Gronk has position-best median and ceiling projections in our Models.
Mount Olympus, Kansas City
Zeus leads the Chiefs with 86 targets, 62 receptions, 777 receiving yards, 820 air yards, and five touchdowns receiving. At worst, Kelce is the 1B to wide receiver Tyreek Hill’s 1A. He’s a market share monster. Kelce has run 391 routes this year: 95 were as an inline tight end, but 201 were from the slot, 93 were out wide, and two were from the backfield. Kelce is PFF’s No. 1 tight end with an overall grade of 87.6, but when the Chiefs use him as a pass catcher he’s less of a tight end and more of a big-bodied wide receiver. The Chiefs line him up wherever they want or need to in order to get him the ball.
Kelce’s matchup isn’t great, but (like Gronk) he is a matchup-proof receiver. If Kelce has a poor game, it will likely have more to do with head coach Andy Reid or quarterback Alex Smith than with the players defending him. Jets strong safety Jamal Adams is having a good season for a first-year player — but Kelce versus a rookie is a matchup the veteran should win every time. Kelce is tied for the position-high with six Pro Trends on DraftKings, where he leads all tight ends with his floor projection.
“Everybody Ertz Sometimes”
Available on the FanDuel main slate only, Ertz seems to be fully recovered from the hamstring injury that cost him a game a few weeks ago. The Eagles are amazingly -5.5 road favorites in Seattle, but they’re playing so well that it’s hard to bet against them: The Eagles have hit their implied Vegas total in an elite 10 of 11 games. They have an NFL-high 37 offensive touchdowns, 71.8 percent red zone conversion rate, and 31.91 points per game (PPG). Although the Seahawks still have a feared defense, their secondary isn’t as stout as it once was: Cornerback Richard Sherman (Achilles) and safety Kam Chancellor (neck) are out. The absence of Chancellor in particular is beneficial for Ertz, who will now run the majority of his routes against injury fill-in Bradley McDougald. It’s possible that free safety Earl Thomas could line up against Ertz more than anticipated, but the tight end should be able to find success against the Boom-reduced Legion.
Over his last 16 outings, Ertz has turned 141 targets into a wide receiver-like stat line of 98/1,118/10. In his 12 games since last year without Jordan Matthews, Ertz has functioned as the team’s slot man, turning 112 targets into a 77/857/10 line. Along with Gronk and Kelce, Ertz is a top-three fantasy tight end. As bad as the Chip Kelly era was in Philadelphia, the departed coach at least did something right in drafting Ertz, who leads the position with 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he’s the highest-rated tight end in the CSURAM88 and Levitan Models.
The Dumpoff Pass
Kyle Rudolph ($4,500 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel): Rudolph has 37 targets inside the red zone since last season and 5.1 receptions per game since Week 5. The Falcons are 20th in pass DVOA against tight ends.
Evan Engram ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel): Engram has disappointed in his past two games with just four receptions for 27 yards, but he still got 13 targets in the span and is averaging 8.5 targets per game since the season-ending injuries to wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr. (ankle) and Brandon Marshall (ankle) in Week 5. He has a great matchup against a Raiders defense that is 32nd in pass DVOA (25th against tight ends), and his ownership will be deflated thanks to his recent performance.
Jimmy Graham ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel): Available only on the FanDuel main slate, Graham has basically transformed into middle-aged Antonio Gates. He’s no longer the yardage accumulator he was in New Orleans, but over the past seven games Graham has caught eight touchdowns and a two-point conversion. He’s first in the league with 14 targets inside the 10-yard line; no one else has more than 10.
Jack Doyle ($5,200 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel): If I were Jacoby Brissett, I’d rather throw to someone covered by safety Barry Church or Tashaun Gipson than a guy blanketed by a top-five PFF cornerback in Jalen Ramsey or A.J. Bouye. Doyle had seven targets against the Jags in Week 7.
Delanie Walker ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel): Walker leads the Titans with 77 targets and 53 receptions, and the Texans have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends with 14.4 DraftKings and 11.8 FanDuel PPG.
Cameron Brate ($2,600 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) and O.J. Howard ($2,800 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel): It benefits both tight ends that quarterback Jameis Winston (shoulder) has been cleared to start, but the Packers have held tight ends to a league-low 8.2 DraftKings and 6.1 FanDuel PPG. As weak as the Packers secondary is, the safety duo of Morgan Burnett and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix is best left untested.
Marcedes Lewis ($2,700 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel): The Jaguars are -10.0 home favorites, the Colts are 29th in pass DVOA against tight ends, and Lewis leads the team with a 41.7 percent share of Jacksonville’s receiving touchdowns. His ownership will be almost nonexistent.
Julius Thomas ($3,500 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel): This split might be meaningless, but in the four games since the Dolphins traded away running back Jay Ajayi they’ve relied more on their tight end, giving him 5.8 targets per game and five total targets inside the red zone. Thomas has a great matchup at home against the Broncos. Last year they were fifth against tight ends in pass DVOA. This year, however, with the departure of strong safety T.J. Ward via free agency, the Broncos are 23rd, as strong safety Darian Stewart, free safety Justin Simmons, and safety/linebacker Will Parks have allowed 69.6 percent of the 92 passes thrown into their coverage to be completed for 709 yards and nine touchdowns. In total, opposing tight ends have top-four fantasy marks against the Broncos with 16.5 DraftKings and 13.5 FanDuel PPG.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel): ASJ hasn’t scored a touchdown in over a month, but he’s averaged 5.8 targets per game in that span.
Eric Ebron ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel): Ebron has 4.8 targets per game since Detroit’s Week 7 bye, and the Lions could have a pass-heavy game script as +2.5 road dogs against the Ravens, who have a tight end-flowing aerial funnel on defense. They rank fourth, second, and third in pass DVOA against primary, secondary, and supplementary wide receivers but 28th in pass DVOA against tight ends.
The Model Tight Ends
Besides Ertz, there are three tight ends atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek).
- Jared Cook ($5,400 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel)
- Hunter Henry ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel)
- Austin Hooper ($3,400 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel)
As mentioned on the Week 13 Daily Fantasy Flex pod, Cook is a potential chalk lock. The Raiders are -9.5 home favorites against the Geno Smith-led Giants, who have allowed the most fantasy points this year to tight ends with 17.1 DraftKings and 14.0 FanDuel PPG. The Raiders will be without wide receivers Amari Cooper (concussion, ankle) and Michael Crabtree (suspension), so Cook could function as the team’s No. 1 pass catcher. Through 11 games Cook is first on the team with 42 receptions and 536 yards. Running 260 of his 333 routes from the slot or out wide, Cook basically plays as a wide receiver. For a tight end, he has a high correlation coefficient with quarterback Derek Carr. If you’re looking to stack Carr with a receiver, Cook is probably your guy, although he will have elevated ownership. He’s the highest-rated FanDuel tight end in the Bales Model.
It’s hard to trust Henry in cash — he has three or fewer targets in five games — but his upside is undeniable, and he’s made a habit of producing against teams weak in tight end defense: Dolphins (Week 2), Giants (Week 5), Raiders (Week 6), Broncos (Week 7), and Cowboys (Week 12). This week the Chargers are implied for 28.25 points as -14.0 home favorites against the Browns, who have a funnel defense ranked second against the run and 27th against the pass in DVOA. The Chargers have the slate’s highest passing points expectation, and the Browns are especially vulnerable to tight ends, ranking dead last in pass DVOA to the position. They’ve allowed a league-high 32 touchdowns to tight ends since 2015. Use our Lineup Builder to stack Hunter with quarterback Philip Rivers. Hunter is the No. 1-rated FanDuel tight end in the SportsGeek Model.
Like Henry, Hooper has been inconsistent in his sophomore campaign, but he has at least five targets in four of his past five games, and the Falcons are hitting their stride, scoring 31.7 PPG over the past three weeks. Hooper will see some coverage from Harrison Smith, PFF’s No. 1 safety in pass defense with a 90.6 coverage grade, but he’ll also run some routes against linebacker Eric Kendricks, who is exploitable with a 50.8 PFF coverage grade. Hooper is a tournament-only play on account of his volatility, but he’s cheap on DraftKings, where he could be used as a low-owned member of Falcons stacks as the consensus No. 1-rated tight in our Pro Models.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Research the tight ends for yourself with our tools, and read the other Week 12 positional breakdowns.
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed.
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
