The PGA TOUR is back in action this week as the action shifts from Japan to Mexico. For the second straight year, the Tiger Woods-designed El Cardonal at Diamante in Cabo San Lucas is the host of the World Wide Technology Championship. With just three tournaments left in the FedExCup fall before a golfer’s status is set for 2025, it’s a high-stakes stretch of golf for the fringe players who are trying to earn enough points to keep their full-time status or improve to play in more Signature Events.
Last year, Erik van Rooyen won the event at -27, setting a new tournament record for low scoring as he dismantled the par 72 on his way to his second career win on the PGA TOUR. EVR is back to defend his title this year, and he’s joined in the field by Max Greyserman and Cameron Young, who are the only golfers with salaries over $10,000 in the field. Nico Echavrarria is back in action after winning two weeks ago in Japan, where he earned his way into this field with a top 10 along with Rico Hoey and Alejandro Tosti. In all, there will be 120 golfers in this full-field event, with the standard top 65 and ties cut following the first 36 holes.
The course they’ll play this week is characterized by wide fairways, some new strategically placed bunkers, and larger-than-average greens. The setup is a tropical “resort” style course that sets up for very low scores. The weather, especially the wind, is expected to make things a little more challenging this week than last year, but we’re still looking for players who excel in favorable scoring conditions.
This tournament is the sixth event of the eight in the FedExCup Fall with the next two in the next two weeks before the holiday break. FedExCup points will be extremely important to track over the next three weeks since the final top 125 for next year’s season, which begins in January, will be locked in after The RSM Classic in two weeks. All players outside the top 125 can improve or regain TOUR status via PGA TOUR Q-School presented by Korn Ferry in December at TPC Sawgrass.
The focus of this post is strong GPP options who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain, looking for under-owned options.
All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Stroked Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
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Ben Griffin $9,900
Griffin has the third-highest Perfect% in the field and the fourth-highest SimLeverage in the field since his ownership projection is under 15%. He doesn’t have as high a ceiling projection as Max Greyserman ($10,400) or Harry Hall ($9,200), but he comes at suchh lower ownership that he’s a strong pivot option to consider.
Griffin finished in the top 25 at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP two weeks ago after shooting 66-64 over the weekend and climbing the leaderboard. He also finished in the top 15 at low-scoring events like the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, the John Deere Classic, and the Wyndham Championship before going T37-T11-MC in his three previous events in the FedExCup Fall. The T11 was at the Black Desert Championship in scoring conditions that should be similar to this week’s tournament in Mexico.
Last year on this track, Griffin finished T23. He has excellent long-term form and ranks fifth in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach, fourth in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green, and eighth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over his last 36 rounds.
The 28-year-old starts the week at No. 60 in the FedExCup standings, so he has the motivation to play well over the next three weeks to earn his way into signature events. He is one of the most established and consistent golfers in this thin field, and getting him at such low ownership makes his low risk also result in high leverage.
Matti Schmid $9,600
In this week’s salary structure, both Doug Ghim and Matti Schmid check in with identical salaries of $9,600. They’ve been two of my favorite plays throughout the fall, and both are strong candidates to break through for their first career PGA TOUR win this week. I’ll be using both in lineups in Mexico, but even though Ghim’s ceiling projection is higher, Schmid is the smarter play for GPP since his ownership projection is almost five percent lower, which also gives him higher SimLeverage.
Schmid comes in scorching hot after finishing T16-5-T3 in his three events in October. Schmid has made the cut exceeded salary-based expectations in nine straight events dating back to July. He ranks eighth in the field in Total Strokes Gained over his last 30 rounds, fifth in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, and 12th in Strokes Gained: Putting.
His recent surge has put him in a position to retain his PGA TOUR status, and he could improve it even more with a big finish over the next three weeks. Like Griffin, he’s steady across every aspect of his game and can contend when scores go low, as they’re expected to do this week.
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Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
J.J. Spaun $9,000
Spaun has the third-highest ceiling projection in the field this week, even though he’s just outside the top 10 in salary. He has an ownership projection higher than Schmid and Griffin, but given his upside for the salary, he’s worth eating a little chalk. He still brings a positive SimLeverage, though, since he has the fourth-highest Perfect% in the field as well.
Spaun made the cut at this course last year but finished back in the pack. He has rebounded from a rough spring by exceeding salary-based expectations in 10 of his last 11 tournaments, making the cut in all 10 of those events, with the one exception being a withdrawal from the Sanderson Farms Championship.
He is coming off a T6 two weeks ago in Japan, which was his fourth top-10 finish in his last 11 starts. Over his last 30 rounds, he ranks third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and Total Strokes Gained while ranking second in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. He’s been locked into my picks this fall and will look to continue his surge with a good week at El Cardonal.
Rico Hoey $8,200
Hoey has been another rhot streak I’ve been riding all fall, and he should have just the kind of game to compete this week. He has thrived on resort courses with low scoring, notching top 10s at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, the ISCO Championship, the Barracuda Championship, and the Shriners Children’s Open over the last few months.
He has exceeded salary-based expectations in 10 of his last 11 tournaments and hasn’t missed a cut since the U.S. Open in June. He has finished in the top 26 in eight of those 11 tournaments and ranks in the top six in the field in Total Strokes Gained and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over his last 36 rounds.
If his putter cooperates a little bit, Hoey should be able to contend this week since he is excellent off the tee and should give himself plenty of chances at birdie putts.
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Value PGA DFS Picks
Patton Kizzire $7,600
Kizzire is another player like Hoey who can use his great driver to set up lots of birdie chances in scoring conditions like this week’s. The 38-year-old from Alabama has the second-highest SimLeverage in the field with his ownership projection all the way under 5%. He has the highest Perfect% of all players under $8,000 and offers 85% Leverage.
Kizzire won earlier in the FedExCup Fall at the Procore Championship in Napa and followed that up with a T11 the following week at the Black Desert Championship. He threw the public off his trail with a missed cut at the Shriners before a couple of weeks off, but he should be able to bounce back and be back on the leaderboard this week.
Last year at this track, Kizzire notched a T15, and he also won this event (on a different course) back in 2017.
Joe Highsmith $7,400
The 24-year-old lefty struggled in his rookie season on the PGA TOUR, entering the FedExCup Fall at No. 160 in the FedExCup standings. He has turned things on since after the playoffs, though, surging all the way up to No. 126, right on the fringe of the top 125 with three events to go.
Highsmith’s first high finish was behind Kizzire at the Procore, where he finished T13. After a T55 at the Sanderson, he bounced back with a T6 at the Black Desert and a T16 at the Shriners. In each of those four events, he exceeded salary-based expectations by over 25 DraftKings points. In his last two tournaments, Highsmith showed he can go low in a hurry in the desert.
He ranks fifth in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and seventh in Total Strokes Gained over the last 16 rounds. He’ll look to continue his surge with more low scores in Mexico this week.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Wesley Bryan $6,800
Bryan has only played three tournaments in the FedExCup Fall, but he has posted high enough finishes to move from No. 156 to No. 138 in the rankings. If he can continue his momentum south of the border this week, Bryan could set himself up to sneak into the top 125 with strong finishes over the next two weeks.
This week, he has the fourth-highest SimLeverage of players under $7,000 and the fifth-highest ceiling projection. He also matches more Pro Trends than any other golfer in this price range.
He posted a T13 at the Procore, followed by a T37 at the Sanderson and a T21 at the Black Desert Championship. At that most recent tournament, he opened with a 72 before finishing the week with 65-67-66. Over his last 12 rounds, Bryan ranks in the top 10 in this field in Total Strokes Gained, and he’ll look to continue that momentum in his debut at El Cardonal.
Emilio Gonzalez $6,600
It’s Mexico, and it’s a thin field, so let’s get wild with our last sleeper pick of the week.
Gonzalez is a Mexico native playing this week on a sponsor’s exemption. The 27-year-old is playing his second PGA TOUR event after making the cut and finishing T74 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
He comes in with good form though, after a very strong season on the Korn Ferry Tour. He made 16 of 25 cuts with seven top 25s and two top 10s. One of those top 10s came in September at the Simmons Bank Open for the Snedeker Foundation, and he finished T20 at the Korn Ferry Tour Championship a month ago. He finished at No. 49 on the Korn Ferry Tour Points List and will be looking to earn more opportunities with a strong showing this week.
He’ll definitely have the motivation, and his recent Korn Ferry Tour results give him enough upside to be worth a flier in this price range, where all the alternatives from the PGA TOUR have been struggling.
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