After a week off, the FedExCup Fall is back in action with a three-tournament stretch to wrap up this season. There are a few more unofficial tournaments before the end of the year, but these next three events are how players will earn their way into the top 125 and secure their PGA TOUR cards for next season as well as playing their way into the Elevated Events. This critical stretch starts this week with the World Wide Technology Championship in beautiful Los Cobos, Mexico.
While the event has taken place for the past 16 years, this year’s event is brand new in several important ways. Not only does the FedExCup Fall bring new significance to the tournament, but the event will take place on a new course. In the past, the event has been hosted at Riviera Maya, but this year, it relocates to El Cardonal golf course, which originally opened in 2014. The course will be the first ever designed by Tiger Woods to host a PGA TOUR event, and this is the first time the PGA TOUR pros will be taking on this venue.
The field this week includes some big names, including surging young star Ludvig Aberg, who is the most expensive player in the field. Aberg starts the week sitting 99th in the FedExCup and is also trying to climb into the top 50 in the Official World Golf Ranking by the end of the year, which would earn him a Masters invitation. Cameron Young is the second-most expensive player and will be playing for the first time this fall along with Lucas Glover. On the other hand, Sahith Theegala and Luke List will be looking to win for the second time this fall.
Other notable players this week include Maverick McNealy (shoulder), who is returning from injury, Chris Gotterup, the 2022 NCAA Player of the Year, and Ryo Ishikawa, who earned his way into this tournament with a T4 at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP two weeks ago.
After the limited field, no-cut event in Japan. This week is a return to a regular format with a field of 132 golfers cut to the top 65 and ties after 36 holes.
This weekly GPP post focuses on players with lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success. The picks here are designed to go against the grain and take advantage of players who may be overlooked or not selected due to risk factors.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk if it raises the lineup’s ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that usually lead to large-field success.
GPP contests are contests that have large numbers of entries and pay out huge prizes to the top few percent. Since this week is a major, the largest GPP on DraftKings is the $300K Sand Trap, which awards $100K to first place.
The players highlighted will be good options if they deliver in all formats, but they come with risk factors that usually keep them from being the safest plays. Safety and reliability should be the focus of lineups in cash and double-up contests, where finishing in the top spot isn’t quite as important. To find specific guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
Usually, I rely on the Stroked Gained Model, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players that gain shots on approach since week-to-week putting performance can be highly volatile, even for the best players on the PGA TOUR.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
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High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Stephan Jaeger $10,200
The big name at the top of almost every rating this week is Ludvig Aberg, but he also comes with a very hefty ownership projection of almost 30%. You can definitely still include him since there’s a good chance he wins the week, but you’ll need to differentiate your lineups with some of the lesser-owned plays highlighted below.
If you’re looking for a pivot play near the top of the salary structure that still brings tons of upside but at a much more palatable ownership projection, check out Stephan Jaeger. Jaeger is projected for under 14% ownership and brings a +5.3% SimLeverage compared to Aberg’s -1.8% SimLeverage. Jaeger shows up in the second-most optimal lineups in our sims, as you can tell from his 18.9% Perfect%, trailing only Aberg.
Jaeger also has the fifth-best odds to win the week, according to Vegas, which makes him a good target since he’s projected to be outside the top 10 in ownership.
The 34-year-old German has been very consistent across all aspects of his game and hasn’t missed a cut since mid-April. He made the PGA TOUR postseason and finished T20 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. He added another top 25 at the Sanderson Farms Championship in early October. He has six top-20 finishes since April and has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his past 10 tournaments with an Average Plus/Minus of 14.73 DraftKings points.
Jaeger has had success on similar courses with Paspalum greens and has shown the ability to go low and contend on coastal setups similar to this one.
Akshay Bhatia $9,200
Bhatia brings the seventh-highest SimLeverage in the field and surprisingly only has an ownership barely over 10%. He has posted some uneven results, but part of that is due to his game seeming to fit, especially one kind of course. Bhatia typically excels on low-scoring tracks in tropical environs with open fairways that allow him to let his driver eat.
The lefty broke through with a win at the Barracuda Championship last July after posting top-10 finishes earlier in the year at the Barbasol Championship, the Mexico Open, and the Puerto Rico Open. Both the Mexico Open and Puerto Rico Open are on comparable courses, as is where he won in 2022 on the Korn Ferry Tour at The Bahamas Great Exuma Classic at Sandals Emerald Bay.
Bhatia missed a couple of cuts after his breakthrough victory but posted a T43 at the Sanderson Farms, a T35 at the Shriners Children’s Open, and a T21 at the ZOZO Championship in his three appearances this fall.
With good recent form and so much success on Resort courses like this one, Bhatia brings immense upside at just over $9K.
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Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Mark Hubbard $8,500
The mid-range is a little thin on options this week, with only eight players checking in with salaries between $8K and $9K. There are plenty of options above and below, but there’s an unusual gap in the midrange. Of the eight players in that range, Davis Thompson has the highest ceiling projection, matches the most Pro Trends, brings the best Projected Plus/Minus, and offers the highest Perfect%.
Thompson is a regular in my picks, but the lack of other plays around him has his ownership projection all the way up to 14.4%. While I like Thompson, I’m going to pivot to another play here that is getting much less attention and go with Mark Hubbard.
Hubbard has the second-best SimLeverage of the golfers in this price range and trails only Thompson in Perfect%. However, he’s projected for barely half of Thompson’s ownership at just 8.8%. Hubbard has the third-highest ceiling, median, and floor projection of the golfers in this range and has the kind of “boom-or-bust” track record that makes sense for GPP lineups since when he does make the cut and play the weekend, he often contends.
To start the FedExCup Fall, Hubbard posted back-to-back top 20s at the Fortinet Championship and the Sanderson Farms Championship. He missed the cut at the Shriners after a rough 75 in Round 1, although his 65 in Round 2 was a good sign.
He also played at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP, where he placed T31 after an impressive 69-66 on the weekend. If he can build on that momentum, Hubbard has a good shot to emerge as the best option from this range with limited options.
Doug Ghim $7,700
Given the shortage of options over $8K, I like dropping down, grabbing more savings, and playing some of my top options from the upper $7K range. One of my personal favorites in that range, and also one who shows well in our projections, is Doug Ghim.
This week, Ghim has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in the entire field and brings the most Pts/Sal as well. He is projected for under 9% ownership, which lines up almost perfectly with his Perfect%.
The projections give Ghim the highest ceiling of any golfer priced under $9K, even higher than Thompson or any golfer with a salary in the $8,000s. He has a significantly higher median and floor projection than any other player in this range as well, making him stand out as a low-risk play with plenty of upside.
Ghim is a shot-maker who can contend when his putter gets hot and especially shows well in low-scoring conditions. We’re not exactly sure of the conditions for this track, but if it plays easy like many Resort courses, he could be a great bargain.
Part of the reason for Ghim’s lower ownership is that he missed the cut in each of his last two starts. However, the projections like him to bounce back and find the form that helped him exceed salary-based expectations in nine of his prior 10 events.
Value PGA DFS Picks
Michael Kim $7,500
Kim has the fourth-best Projected Plus/Minus of the golfers in the field. He brings the sixth-highest ceiling projection of all the golfers priced under $8K and the seventh-best SimLeverage.
Since his return to form this season, Kim has proven to be very streaky. He had a strong run early in the year but scuffled over the summer. Recently, he seems to have re-found his footing, though, with a T5 at the Wyndham just before the playoffs and a T18 at the Shriners in his first FedExCup Fall event. Two weeks ago at the ZOZO, he finished a disappointing T41, but most of that was due to one ugly round of 75 in Round 2. He finished the week with a 68-70, though, so seems to have fixed the issue.
Kim has the kind of balanced game throughout the bag and especially on approach that tends to play well on this style of course. His upside also makes him a good play for GPP, where we can accept a little more risk in exchange for his high ceiling.
Brandon Wu $7,300
If this course plays similarly to other courses with Paspalum greens, Brandon Wu is definitely a sleeper play to consider in this price range.
He has played the Mexico Open at Vidanta twice and finished solo third and tied for second. He also has shot eight rounds under par in his two events in Puerto Rico, where he finished in the top 10, including another third-place finish. If this course is anything like those two, Wu could be an absolute steal.
Before an uninspiring week at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP two weeks ago, Wu had posted four straight tournaments exceeding salary-based expectations. He had had some strong individual rounds over the summer and fall but hasn’t put together a full tournament since the Canadian Open when he finished in the top 10.
With under 10% projected ownership, he brings enough leverage and potential upside to be a strong value play.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Carl Yuan $6,800
Of the 76 players with salaries under $7K, Yuan brings the third-highest Perfect% and ranks in the top five in median, ceiling, and floor projection.
Yuan comes in with a solid run of recent form after exceeding salary-based expectations in each of his past four tournaments. He posted a top 10 at the Sanderson Farms Championship early in October and followed that with another made cut at the Shriners, where he posted a second straight week with a Plus/Minus over 30 DraftKings points.
His recent form and ownership projection under 4% give him 70% Leverage and +1.12 SimLeverage. The 26-year-old is trying to become the first player from mainland China to win on the PGA TOUR, and he’s definitely one of the young names to keep an eye on as we finish out this season and prepare for next year. He starts this week at 133rd in the FedExCup Fall and needs to finish with strong results over the next few weeks to lock up his card for next year.
Isaiah Salinda $6,500
Salinda came out of basically nowhere to finish in the top 10 at the Shriners Children’s Open three weeks ago. He Monday qualified for that event for his first PGA TOUR appearance of the season after missing seven of his last eight cuts to finish 80th in the Korn Ferry Tour standings. Throughout the year, he played 21 events and posted five top-25 finishes, highlighted by his only top 10, which came at the AdventHealth Championship in Kansas City.
Before working this past year on the Korn Ferry Tour, Salinda played with Brandon Wu and Maverick McNealy at Stanford and was part of the 2019 Walker Cup team. Salinda qualified for this event with that top-10 finish and will look to continue to build his resume to get further opportunities moving forward.
The models love Salinda this week. In fact, he has a 12.6% Perfect%, which puts him in the 12th-most optimal lineups. With just a 2.8% ownership projection, he has a slate-leading 9.8% SimLeverage. Part of Salinda’s high projection may be that the model doesn’t have quite as much data for him as the other super-cheap plays. He also brings a high ceiling if he can play like he did at the Shriners a few weeks ago, so I think he’s worth a look as a flier play as a super sleeper this week.
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