Since it’s Super Bowl weekend, the PGA TOUR is back in its traditional venue at TPC Scottsdale for the WM Phoenix Open. “The People’s Open,” as it has come to be called, always draws huge crowds or raucous fans and also brings together a very strong field this season for what should be a memorable and exciting week of golf. Last year, Scottie Scheffler fell just short in his quest for a three-peat while Nick Taylor got the win after outlasting Charley Hoffman in a playoff.
For more info on the field, the course, the weather, and some key stats, check out this First Look from RotoGrinders.
The focus of this post is strong GPP options who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain, looking for under-owned options.
All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Stroked Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean toward players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editor’s note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
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Scottie Scheffler $12,000
Scheffler is a good play just about everywhere, but if he had a “best course,” TPC Scottsdale would definitely be in the running. His early ownership projection is high, but it isn’t nearly as high as it should be based on our sims, which give him a field-leading 43.8% Perfect%, with no other golfer coming in at over 21%. Because he’s so much better than everyone else in our sims, he has the second-highest SimLeverage in the field, even though he also has the highest ownership projection.
Scheffler has the top ceiling, median, and floor projections across the board and also the shortest odds to win and finish in the top 10 by a wide margin, according to Vegas.
In his last four appearances at this event, Scheffler has four top-10s and two victories. He finished T3 last year just out of the playoff between Taylor and Hoffman. He claimed his first PGA TOUR career win in 2022 and has thrived in all his return trips.
Last week, Scheffler returned to action after needing surgery to remove glass from his hand. He showed very little rust, though, finishing in the top 10 at Pebble Beach. Since people may have gotten away with fading him last week, they may try and do that again this week, at least according to the early ownership projections. Even though he’s expensive and a little obvious, he’s too good of a play to pass up this week, especially with some good differentiation plays coming up later in this post.
Tom Kim $9,600
Kim has the third-lowest ownership projection of any player over $9,000, but there’s a lot to like about his game coming to TPC Scottsdale this week.
The 22-year-old South Korean typically feeds off the crowd, so he should excel in this kind of environment. He started last year with a 74 but rallied to finish T17, making him two-for-two, making the cut at this event.
Over the last 24 rounds, Kim ranks second in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and is in the top 15 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. He started the year slow with a T65 in Hawaii and a missed cut at The American Express, but he caught fire last week at Pebble Beach. He finished T7 but held a share of the lead at the turn before a disappointing bogey on the final hole dropped him down the leaderboard.
That final bogey could help him stay off the radar this week, making him a great top-tier play to pair with Scottie if you don’t mind going cheap on the rest of your roster, perhaps with the value plays below.
Now available: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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