With Pitchers, Think Differently On DraftKings and FanDuel

Every MLB daily fantasy pro you read or talk to will preach the same message: start with pitching. It’s a sample size issue, really – pitchers get many more chances to accumulate fantasy points than batters just due to the nature of baseball. As a result, pitchers are the most predictable – and in turn, “safe” – fantasy players in MLB DFS.

However, because of site scoring, not every pitcher is valued the same on every site. In fact, choosing starting pitchers should be quite a different process on DraftKings and FanDuel. Again, it’s because of scoring – DraftKings values strikeouts a lot, while FanDuel values wins and not giving up runs. Knowing the scoring system is Step #1 to picking your pitcher, not just picking the “best pitcher” every night.

Because of this fact, I wondered if perhaps value pitching was harder to find on DraftKings than on FanDuel – only the higher-priced guys are really ever elite strikeout guys. However, if wins and low ERA are valued more highly on FanDuel, maybe you can find a guy with a good matchup in that regard easier than on DraftKings where those things don’t matter as much?

Thanks to our Trends tool and Plus/Minus metric, we can look at exactly that. Here’s the Plus/Minus on both sites for pitchers at specific salary points.

The data shows that the best pitching values are the top-priced guys on both sites, but on DraftKings, they’re incredible values. Again, it’s due to site scoring – the top guys on DraftKings are ones who can typically do it all: get double-digit K’s, go long into the game, and notch a win. And those things are valuable on FanDuel, just not as much as on DraftKings.

The other difference in the data can be found at the bottom guys, where we see that there’s not a whole lot of difference in Plus/Minus between sub-$6k guys and $9k guys on FanDuel. It seems that anything below that $9k threshold is typically getting what you pay for. On DraftKings, the bottom guys take a huge dive – they typically possess no strikeout potential and could very well get knocked out early.

Look at the difference in pitcher’s Plus/Minus at each moneyline point on DraftKings:

…and FanDuel:

The DraftKings positive moneylines (meaning the pitchers are the dogs) still show some green and don’t dip quite as far into the red, showing that while moneyline certainly has an important correlation to fantasy value, it’s definitely not as high as on FanDuel. When two aces duel, they’re both in good spots to be great plays on DraftKings. On FanDuel however, it’s risky to take the guy who could lose the game.

To show this further, I looked at pitcher’s Plus/Minus on DraftKings and FanDuel in a very specific situation to see the difference between the two: pitchers coming into the game with 8.0 strikeouts per 9 innings or higher but an underdog at +100 to +110 (I kept it slight) on the day.

DraftKings: +1.06

FanDuel: +0.11

We’re at positive value on both sites, but you can see that they’re at a much higher value on DraftKings because of strikeouts.

Looking at pitchers is a great way to start your MLB DFS research every day. However, I wouldn’t necessarily just look broadly at pitchers and their matchups and then use those pitchers across all sites you play on. Scoring matters, and as these graphs have shown, it can make a big difference in finding value. On DraftKings, the elite guys continue to be the best value, while on FanDuel, things are certainly more matchup-dependent.