This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze five key NHL players on the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Today we have a five-game slate that starts at 5:00 pm ET.
All data pulled from HockeyViz.com, Corsica.Hockey, or NaturalStatTrick.com unless otherwise specified.
Jeff Skinner ($6,500 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel)
Skinner ranks third in the league in iCorsi/60 and should get a choice matchup against the Islanders’ depth lines. It isn’t often that you can get the best sniper on the slate at reduced ownership (apologies to Mike Hoffman), but Skinner has been unlucky of late, scoring only two goals on an astounding 34 shots. My FantasyLabs Model has Skinner rated as the best overall skater on this slate, and I expect him to pick up some more points so long as he keeps his shot volume up.
Nathan MacKinnon ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel)
MacKinnon and Sidney Crosby might not have experienced the same team success in their careers, but they have more in common as players than you’d think. Since the beginning of last season, MacKinnon and Crosby have identical iCorsi/60’s, at 15.88 (in my unofficial range of “very good”). Even more surprising, MacKinnon actually has a better primary assists/60 (which are shown to be most predictive of future assists), edging Sid 1.13 to 1.06 to sit in the top 30 of all NHL regulars over the time frame. Where Crosby makes up the difference is in an extremely high conversion rate versus MacKinnon’s very low shooting percentage, which of course is useful for fantasy. But first and foremost you want shot production and point equity, both of which MacKinnon has in spades. Consider a suddenly red-hot MacKinnon a top Center play on Sunday’s slate, as his price doesn’t match his combination of strong shot floor and elite track record in a great matchup against the Red Wings.
Mike Green ($4,400 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel)
Green continues to produce, now tied for third among defensemen in points with 17 in 20 games. There is some cause for concern here going forward, as Green has done so with the most secondary assists of any defenseman and noticeably fewer shots/game than the other top-tier defensemen making up the top of the leaderboards. The two factors in Green’s favor? His price low, he should get 20-plus minutes of ice time (and spot on the first power-play line), and he’s against the Colorado Avalanche, who are always a team to pick on, especially when they hit the road. Tread carefully going forward, but on Sunday’s limited slates without many true studs, Green makes for a nice fit as a mid-tier defenseman. Consider stacking him with his first power-play mates, Anthony Mantha, Dylan Larkin, Andreas Athanasiou, and Frans Nielsen.
Alex Iafallo ($3,800 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel)
An unheralded college free agent this past April, Iafallo has earned his way onto the Kings’ first power-play unit and into a huge allotment of minutes. Even his shot metrics are fine, so he’s a fantastic player against the Vegas Golden Knights. Keep him on your radar going forward, too, if you’ve yet to catch onto his elevated role despite relative anonymity. A trend for the road: Players who have been priced below $4,000 while averaging two shots per game on the first line and first power play have performed 30% better than their salary would otherwise indicate. Iafallo is in a great spot for fantasy purposes, regardless of matchup, so long as he maintains this role and price.
Mathew Barzal ($5,500 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel)
Primary Assists per 60 leaders (with at least 200 minutes of TOI) on the season, among the 10 teams in action tonight:
- MacKinnon
- Barzal
It is very tough to find fantastic floors (shots + blocks) at center on most nights, so I am more willing to chase after point equity at the center position. These two players also meet the eye test with flying colors, displaying dazzling skills on a nightly basis, which match their raw production. Barzal has 17 points in 18 games, averaging over two shots per game. Translation: His average game at his current price would leave you quite happy with the result. He has massive upside given his talent level and first power play usage alongside John Tavares (who has fallen dramatically in shots taken over the past couple of weeks) for an Islanders team that has FantasyLabs’ highest overall fantasy point accumulation projection on tonight’s slate.
Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide updates regarding projected lines and starting goaltenders. Stay ahead of your competition with our Team Lines page.
