The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Dak Prescott vs. Green Bay Packers – $7,600 on DraftKings, $8,600 on FanDuel
A few weeks ago, the Cowboys appeared to be on the ropes, and the Eagles had the NFC East division title in hand. Things unraveled for Philly quickly in the last few weeks, though, and the Cowboys surged to a division win and a home playoff game this week against Green Bay.
The matchup at home gives Dallas’s offense a huge boost and makes Dak Prescott the top pay-up quarterback play of the weekend.
On both DraftKings and FanDuel, Prescott has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of all quarterbacks in the FantasyLabs projections and Chris Raybon’s projections, while THE BLITZ projections give him the highest median and floor while giving Jalen Hurts a slightly higher ceiling projection.
In an evenly-blended aggregate of those three projections, Prescott has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position as well.
At home this season, Prescott averaged an impressive 308.8 passing yards per game. He threw 22 touchdowns with just four turnovers in those eight contests. In Week 18, he finished the season on a high note, completing 31 of 36 passes for 279 yards and four touchdowns against Washington to secure the division title.
For the second straight week, the Cowboys have the highest implied team total of the weekend. While the Packers have been solid against quarterbacks, they have also given up some big games to passers like Baker Mayfield and Bryce Young over the past few weeks.
Since this game is in Dallas and the Cowboys will be looking to earn another home game next week, Dak and the Cowboys will try to overcome some sketchy playoff history with a strong showing against Green Bay in what should be a very entertaining Sunday afternoon matchup.
Top Value: Matthew Stafford at Detroit Lions – $6,500 on DraftKings, $7,400 on FanDuel
The Rams-Lions matchup in Detroit has the highest over/under of the weekend. Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff both project to be excellent value plays in their revenge games against their former teams. Stafford has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel, using the blended three-way projections.
Like almost all the Rams key starters, Stafford rested in Week 18. Before that, he led L.A. to six wins in seven games after returning from a one-week injury absence.
In those games, he averaged 270.7 passing yards while throwing for 16 touchdowns and just four interceptions. Stafford averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game during that stretch, and coach Sean McVay definitely has no hesitation leaning heavily on the veteran to carry the offense.
The Lions have been solid against the run this season but beatable at home through the air, meaning the matchup appears to set up well for Stafford to excel in his return. He has the highest Opponents Plus/Minus of all quarterbacks on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
He and Prescott are the only quarterbacks that match three Pro Trends on DraftKings. If you can’t pay up for a top option, go with a proven Super Bowl winner and back Stafford and the Rams.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Kyren Williams White at Carolina Panthers – $7,300 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
With Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers enjoying their bye week, Kyren Williams steps up as the highest-priced running back on the slate and the option with the best projections. In the blended projections, he has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at the position.
While he is a strong play on both sites, he is much cheaper on DraftKings with a 98% Bargain Rating. He matches 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel and 10 on DraftKings, more than any other running back on both sites.
Williams was a fifth-round pick out of Notre Dame before last season but lost his rookie year to injury. He quickly locked in as the team’s top back this season, ultimately allowing the team to trade Cam Akers to Minnesota.
In his 15 games, Williams scored 15 touchdowns and averaged 95.3 rushing yards with 17.2 receiving yards per game. He finished in a nice groove with over 85 rushing yards in each of his six games since returning from injury and five touchdowns in his last three games.
Even though the Lions excelled at stopping the run this year, they gave up nine running back touchdowns while holding opponents to just 60.5 running back rushing yards per game.
He’s projected to have a big workload on Sunday night. With question marks in many backfields, Wiliams is one of the most clear-cut and reliable ceiling options on the board.
Top Value: Devin Singletary – $5,700 on DraftKings, $6,300 on FanDuel
Singletary is another clear-cut No. 1 option that emerged in the backfield for his team this season. Although he started the year behind Dameon Pierce, Singletary seized the job midseason. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at running back in the blended projections this weekend on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Singletary didn’t have an extremely efficient game in the Texans’ Week 18 win, but he did find the end zone and finished with 63 rushing yards on his 24 carries. He was also the only running back to get a carry. He only had one catch in that game but had been more involved with at least three receptions in each of his three previous contests.
In his last nine games, Singletary averaged 76.6 rushing yards and 16.8 receiving yards per game while scoring four touchdowns.
One of those matchups was against the Browns, who he’ll face again this week. In that game, though, the Browns built a big lead early, and Singletary only finished with nine carries for 44 yards.
If the Texans can avoid giving up big plays in the passing game, they should keep this rematch closer and allow Singletary to get his customary workload. Having C.J. Stroud will also make a huge difference to the offense in this rematch.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: CeeDee Lamb vs. Green Bay Packers – $9,000 on DraftKings, $10,000 on FanDuel
This weekend is packed with high-profile wide receivers, but CeeDee Lamb stands out as the best option with the top ceiling, median, and floor projections at the position on both FanDuel and DraftKings. On FanDuel, he has the most Pts/Sal, the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers, and the second-highest in both those categories on DraftKings.
Last week, Lamb capped his impressive season with 13 catches for 98 yards and two touchdowns. He totaled 1,749 receiving yards for an average of 102.9 receiving yards per game on 7.9 receptions per game. On the season, he found the end zone 14 times, and nine of those scores came in his eight home games. He set multiple franchise records and emerged as a premium receiver option.
Combining him and Dak is a strong stacking strategy this week, especially at home against the Packers.
Top Value: Demarcus Robinson at Detroit Lions – $3,600 on DraftKings, $6,300 on FanDuel
The Rams passing attack should be a good source of value, and Robinson has the top Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal at the position on DraftKings using the blended projections. Robinson has a 99% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where he is extremely cheap and can unlock plenty of salary to spend in other spots.
Robinson emerged as the team’s third receiver behind rookie breakout Puka Nacua and star slot receiver Cooper Kupp. He exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight games before getting Week 18 off. He did play 26 snaps but was not targeted by Carson Wentz, starting in place of Stafford.
Before that, he had four touchdowns in five games while averaging a solid 4.2 catches for 63.8 receiving yards on 6.8 targets per game. He doesn’t even need to get a touchdown if he can ready around 50 yards to be a solid return on his minimal salary on DraftKings.
Robinson and the Rams will try to continue the struggles of the Lions secondary. Opposing receivers have totaled over 250 yards in each of the last three weeks with six touchdowns and huge games from Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb.
On FanDuel, Robinson is priced much higher, so options like Chris Godwin and Jameson Williams (ankle) come close to matchup his value projections.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: David Njoku at Houston Texans – $5,600 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel
Travis Kelce has a proven playoff track record and should be in a good spot in the cold in Kansas City on Saturday night. However, Njoku has only slightly lower projections at his lower salary after catching fire late in the season.
Njoku exceeded salary-based expectations in 10 of his last 11 games, while Kelce fell below salary-based expectations in nine straight contests. In those 11 games, he averaged 5.6 catches on 9.2 targets per game for 65.5 receiving yards per contest. Ha also had six touchdown catches during that stretch, including one against the Texans in Week 15, when he had six catches for 44 yards.
With Joe Flacco relying heavily on Njoku and Amari Cooper, both pass-catchers have high ceilings against the Texans. Njoku is a good pivot to consider, especially on FanDuel, where he has a 78% Bargain Rating.
Top Value: Jake Ferguson vs. Green Bay Packers – $4,700 on DraftKings, $6,200 on FanDuel
Of all the tight ends in action this weekend, Jake Ferguson has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and the highest Pts/Sal in the aggregated projections.
Ferguson scored four of his five touchdowns at home and averaged a solid 47.3 yards per game in those contests. He has drawn at least six targets in each of the last six weeks, and he continues to be an integral part of the Cowboys passing attack. If you can’t afford to stack Dak and Lamb, pairing Prescott with Ferguson can save you some salary.
The Packers allowed seven tight end touchdowns this season, along with an average of over 50 yards to the position per contest.
