The Tight End Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
It’s Wild Card Weekend: We made it through Week 17, aka preseason 2.0, just in time to be rewarded with an epic NFL postseason slow-sweat. What a time to be alive. Prepare to late-swap your way to the top of the leaderboard. Although it has wider applicability, this breakdown is explicitly for the 4-game DraftKings and FanDuel main slates.
The Alpha Dog
With so few viable options on this short slate, at least the top tier is easy to identify.
- Travis Kelce ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
In the words of FantasyLabs Editor-in-Chief Matthew Freedman, “Once more unto the breach, dear friends.” I still only have a slight working definition of that quote, which is probably why I will never be known as The Labyrinthian.
Mount Olympus, Kansas City
Zeus leads the Chiefs with 102 targets, 83 receptions, 1277 air yards, and eight touchdowns receiving. At worst, Kelce is the 1B to wide receiver Tyreek Hill’s 1A. Kelce has run 512 routes this year — only 252 were from the slot — and when the Chiefs use him as a pass catcher he’s less of a tight end and more of a big-bodied wide receiver. The Chiefs line him up wherever they want or need in order to get him the ball. Why wouldn’t they? His receiving PFF grade of 87.9 trails only Rob Gronkowski (89.9), just don’t call him “Baby Gronk”.
If Kelce has a poor game, it will likely have more to do with head coach Andy Reid or quarterback Alex Smith than with the players defending him. That said, the matchup is also favorable against a Tennessee defense ranking 24th in TE DVOA. There are plenty of other positive indicators that favor Kelce from a macro perspective:
- 7.5 point home favorite
- Third-highest implied total on the slate (26.5)
- His quarterback leads the slate with 32.9 percent of his throws going to tight ends
The biggest reason to fade Kelce (game theory aside) could be how run-heavy the Chiefs have gone in the red zone since Matt Nagy took over play-calling duties. Bryan Mears does a great job highlighting Kareem Hunt in the Wild Card Market Share Report:
Not only has Chiefs OC Hagy given Hunt a ton of carries and targets, he’s featured him in a huge way in the red zone. Despite barely playing in Week 17, he and Todd Gurley lead the league in opportunities inside the 10-yard line over the past four weeks with 12 and 11 respectively. In Weeks 15 and 16, the Chiefs pounded Hunt in the red zone, giving him a whopping nine carries and two additional targets. The Chiefs are currently implied for 26.5 points this weekend and it’s likely Hunt will be a big part of that.
Kelce has just one target inside the 10-yard line since Week 10.
Tight pricing also makes rostering Kelce a challenge, but his raw points projection rivals even the slate’s top wide receivers. He owns a position-high seven Pro Trends on DraftKings, where only Julio Jones and Michael Thomas have a higher ceiling projection among tight ends and wide receivers.
The Dumpoff Pass
Greg Olsen ($5,000 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel): Olsen’s 24.8 percent target market share and 94.4 percent snap rate leads the Panthers over the past four weeks. The Saints are 11th in pass DVOA against tight ends and bottom six in both catches allowed per game (3.75) and receiving yards per game (42.44) to the position this season. Even in a tough matchup as a 6.5-point road underdog, Olsen still carries upside in tournaments, leading Carolina in market share of air yards (37 percent) and targets (27) over their final three games.
Charles Clay ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel): The Bills 15.5 implied total is the lowest on the slate, but Clay has seen eight or more targets in three of his last four games. Not to mention Jacksonville funnels targets to tight ends, so even if it’s in garbage time, Clay could be the top punt option on the slate based on usage alone.
Marcedes Lewis ($2,500 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel): Tight ends as comparably-lopsided home favorites with similar low implied totals have historically performed well below expectation on DraftKings with a -0.97 Plus/Minus and 34.8 percent Consistency rating. Lewis does have 10 red zone targets this season, but none of which have occurred over the last six games.
Tyler Higbee ($2,500 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel) and Gerald Everett ($2,500 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): Throwing out Week 17, Higbee has 73.94 percent of the Rams’ offensive snaps over their previous three games. That’s more than we can say for Everett (16.48 percent). The Rams 27.0 implied total is the second-highest on the slate, but it’s tough to get on board with Higbee and Everett as anything more than a contrarian flyer against an Atlanta defense allowing the sixth-fewest touchdowns to the position. I wouldn’t roster them, but that doesn’t mean one of them won’t randomly score a touchdown.
Josh Hill ($2,500 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): Stone minimum, Hill is at the Coors Field of fantasy football, and the Saints have the slate’s highest implied total at 27.5 points as -7.0 home favorites. Hill trails only Thomas in snaps over the past four games. Unlike the Rams’ duo of death, JH has at least seen two or more targets in each of his last five outings and at least provides leverage on his high-profile teammates if you find your lineup is behind and you need a Hail Mary late swap.
James O’Shaughnessy ($2,500 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): Speaking of dart throws, might as well consider O’Shaughnessy. He’s only played 30.67 percent of offensive snaps over the last two games, but he does have four red zone targets.
The Model Tight Ends
Besides Kelce, there are two tight ends atop the Pro Models built by the Three Donkeys: Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), and Adam Levitan.
- Delanie Walker ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel):
- Austin Hooper ($2,900 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel)
Only Gronk (33 percent) and Kelce (26 percent) saw a higher target share than Walker (23 percent) from Weeks 13 to 16. However, the matchup could definitely be better. The Chiefs rank 12th in TE DVOA, allowing the third-fewest catches and second-fewest touchdowns to tight ends this season. That said, the Chiefs rank 12th worst in yards allowed to the position and have been susceptible to allowing big plays. The touchdown upside may be limited with the second-lowest implied total on the slate (18.25) and the Titans’ run-heavy nature in the red zone, so Walker will likely have to post a strong yardage game to hit value. With a 96 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel, he boasts the Full Donk approval as the second-highest rated tight end (behind Kelce) in the Bales, CSURAM88, and Levitan Models.
Hooper has been an afterthought for the Falcons this year, but Atlanta is implied to score more points (21.5) than any road team on Wild Card weekend. The Rams are hardly an imposing defense to the tight end position ranking 19th in DVOA. With no more than four targets in a game since Week 12, Hooper may provide less safety than Clay, but he has (theoretical) as much touchdown equity as any of the other punt options. He just happens to be the No. 1 DraftKings tight end in the CSURAM88 Model.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Research the tight ends for yourself with our tools, and read the other Wild Card positional breakdowns.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
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Photo via Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
