Welcome to Super Wild Card Weekend. The action gets underway with a three-game slate on Saturday starting at 1:05 p.m. ET.
Quarterback
Stud
Josh Allen put together a tremendous fantasy season. He finished with an average Plus/Minus of +6.94 on DraftKings across 16 starts, and no quarterback averaged more fantasy points per game. He has the ability to provide fantasy points with both his arms and his legs, which gives him a high ceiling and a safe floor.
Allen is in an interesting spot vs. the Colts. Indianapolis has a decent defense – they rank eighth in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA – but they have gotten worse as the season has progressed. This game also features the highest total on the slate at 51.0 points, and the Bills’ implied team total of 28.5 points also ranks first on the slate.
Value
It’s hard to call Russell Wilson a value on DraftKings, but he’s underpriced on FanDuel. His $7,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%, and Wilson has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.69 with a comparable price tag (per the Trends tool). Wilson is also a home favorite, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.17 in that situation.
That said, Wilson does own a brutal matchup vs. the Rams. They rank fourth in the league in pass defense DVOA, and Wilson owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -6.00 on FanDuel. That’s the worst mark at the position.
Quick Hits
Tom Brady is a massive favorite in Washington, and the Bucs’ implied team total of 26.25 is the second-highest mark on the slate. He’s another excellent value on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 92%.
We’re still not sure who will start at quarterback for the Rams, but it’s possible that John Wolford could earn that distinction. He’d be an interesting option at such a minimal price tag across the industry if he does. He has some ability as a runner, evidenced by his six carries for 56 yards last week vs. the Cardinals.
Running Back
Stud
Jonathan Taylor is priced in his own tier on Saturday’s slate. He got off to a slow start as a rookie, but he’s been absolutely dominant of late. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in five straight games, and he finished with 253 rushing yards and two touchdowns in his last game.
The Bills represent a solid matchup for Taylor. They’ve been worse against the run than the pass this season, ranking just 17th in rush defense DVOA. He leads all players at the position in floor, ceiling, and median projection, yet he’s projected for just the fourth-highest ownership.
Value
Like Taylor, Cam Akers is another rookie RB who has emerged as the season has progressed. He started the year playing behind Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown, but he is operating as the Rams’ clear lead back now. He’s logged at least 15 carries in each of his past four games, and he’s finished with at least 21 carries in three of them. Akers also saw a season-high four targets with Wolford under center last week. He’s too cheap given his projected workload vs. the Seahawks.
Quick Hits
Ronald Jones has been lightly used over the past three weeks. He missed two games after suffering a fractured pinky and landing on the reserve/COVID-19 list, and he garnered just 12 carries last week in a meaningless game. That said, he’s still the Bucs’ clear RB1, and he should benefit from the potential game script. The Bucs are the largest favorites on the slate, and being a large favorite tends to lead to more carries for running backs. Jones also leads the position with a Bargain Rating of 63% on DraftKings.
Chris Carson could be an appealing buy-low option. His price has decreased by -$1,000 over the past month on DraftKings and -$700 over the past month on FanDuel. He suffers from the same poor matchup as Wilson, but targeting players at reduced salaries is typically a +EV decision in DFS.
Wide Receiver
Stud
It’s going to be hard to avoid Stefon Diggs on Saturday’s slate. There aren’t many other options to absorb salary, so Diggs is currently projected for more than 50% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Diggs has been nothing short of fantastic in his first season with the Bills. He led the league in receiving yards and receptions, and his only deficiency was that he didn’t score a ton of touchdowns. Still, he managed to post a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in seven of his past nine games, and he had four games with at least 20.3 FanDuel points over that time frame.
The Colts aren’t an ideal matchup for Diggs, but he still owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.1 on FanDuel. Pro Football Focus also gives him a 15% edge over T.J. Carrie, who is expected to cover him on most snaps.
Value
The Colts’ receiving corps could be a solid source of value on DraftKings. Michael Pittman and Zach Pascal both own a Bargain Rating of 90%, and both players have the potential to smash their current price tags.
Pittman has struggled a bit recently, but it hasn’t been due to a lack of playing time. He played on 87% of the Colts’ offensive snaps last week, and he’s played on at least 80% in eight of his past nine games. That’s a lot of playing time for someone at just $3,500.
Pascal has recently re-emerged in the Colts’ WR rotation, playing on at least 84% of the snaps in three straight games. He’s been one of Philip Rivers’ favorite targets around the goal line, resulting in three touchdowns over that time frame.
Pittman is currently projected for more ownership, making Pascal the more appealing option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). Both players have similar projections in our NFL Models.
Quick Hits
D.K. Metcalf is expected to draw Jalen Ramsey this week, but he’s talented enough to score against anyone. He’s underpriced on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 95%, and the matchup vs. Ramsey could also result in reduced ownership.
If you are worried about Metcalf, Tyler Lockett becomes the obvious pivot. He’s arguably an even better value on FanDuel – his $6,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98% – and the Rams biggest liability in pass coverage is against slot receivers.
Mike Evans is tentatively expected to play this week, but he may be limited after hyperextending his knee last week vs. the Falcons. That means Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown could be asked to carry larger workloads than usual. Godwin owns the biggest matchup edge of the week according to PFF, while Brown owns a Bargain Rating of 91% on FanDuel.
Tight End
The top stud at tight end likely depends on which site you’re playing on. Logan Thomas stands out on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 73%, and he’s emerged as a major factor in Washington’s passing attack. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in six straight games, and he’s averaged nearly nine targets per game over that time frame.
Rob Gronkowski stands out as the top option on DraftKings. His $3,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%, and he’s another player who could be asked to step up if Evans is limited. He’s not as big of a threat as Thomas in between the 20’s, but he has excellent upside in the red zone.
Value
Dawson Knox is another player who came on strong down the stretch. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in five of his past six games, and the lone exception was last week vs. the Dolphins. He still saw eight targets in that contest, and he’s an ideal stacking partner with Allen given their correlation of +0.45.
Quick Hits
The Colts TE situation has been a rollercoaster this season. Mo Alie-Cox emerged as a stud early in the season, and Trey Burton took over in the middle weeks. Now it appears as though Jack Doyle is their preferred option at the position. He led the trio in snaps last week and finished with six targets the week prior.
