With only four games on this slate, we must take an extra close look at the WR/CB matchups to gain an edge. In these small slates, it is especially crucial to nail your studs. Let’s break down the notable WR/CB matchups using our NFL Matchups tool as a guide.
The Studs
Antonio Brown vs. Miami Secondary
The Dolphins secondary has played strong pass defense for the majority of the second half of the season, as Byron Maxwell has enjoyed a stellar bounce-back year. He currently ranks 10th in coverage according to Pro Football Focus, a year after ranking in the bottom half of cornerbacks. Over the last 10 weeks that Maxwell has been active, the Dolphins have not allowed a single 100-yard receiver. They rank 10th as a unit in limiting pass plays over 25 yards.
However, without Maxwell, over the last two weeks the Dolphins have allowed two wide receivers to cross the 150-yard receiving mark in back-to-back weeks. In those two games, they allowed seven passes over 20 yards and one passing play over 50 yards. Even with Maxwell in the lineup, the Dolphins rank seventh-worst in the NFL in yards after the catch allowed, giving up 129.7 yards per game.
With Maxwell looking more doubtful than questionable, it is crucial to note that the Steelers rank third in passing plays over 20 yards and Brown is tied for fifth in plays over 25 yards with 13 on the season. He has at least 12 targets, seven catches, and 117 receiving yards in each of their last two playoff games. Our models project Brown to be the highest-owned receiver on this slate and for good reason.
Maxwell has yet to practice with the team and should be considered legitimately questionable.
Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Packers Secondary
While Brown ranks fifth in plays over 25 yards, Beckham ranks third with 14 such catches. Beckham also has three touchdown catches over 60 yards. Unfortunately for the Packers, they have given up the fourth-most passing plays over 25 yards this season.
Ultimately, the Packers don’t have a single cornerback who can hang with Beckham: None of their corners grade better than 44th overall in pass coverage, per PFF. Their pass defense as a whole ranks 22nd according to Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). However, they are dead last at giving up deep passes on the right side of the field: Per DVOA, they’ve given up 102.6 percent more production than league average in that area of the field. Giants coach Ben McAdoo loves to move Beckham around the formation to get an edge, and Odell should see plenty of action on that side of the field. Beckham has the highest-projected ceiling on both DK and FD.
Jordy Nelson vs. Janoris Jenkins and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
Of the three studs, Jordy definitely draws the toughest matchup. He is likely to be shadowed by Jenkins while he is on the outside and then will draw DRC whenever he enters the slot. Jenkins is PFF’s eighth-best cornerback in coverage, while DRC grades out as fifth-best. They are essentially the NFC’s Talib and Harris. But one thing Talib and Harris don’t have is PFF’s third-highest graded safety, Landon Collins. This secondary is phenomenal. The Giants pass defense ranks fourth in DVOA and has allowed only three 100-yard receivers this season. Notably, Terrelle Pryor was only partially shadowed by Jenkins in his 100-yard game.
Jordy has already faced this defense once this season and saw 13 targets. He caught only four of them for 38 yards and saved his fantasy day with a touchdown. As noted by Scott Barrett of PFF, Aaron Rodgers is known for avoiding elite cornerbacks. When throwing against poorly-graded CBs (per PFF) this season, Rodgers had a 17-to-2 touchdown ratio through 16 weeks and a 4-to-4 ratio against strongly-graded CBs. He had also attempted 42 more passes into the coverage of these poorly-graded CBs.
Needless to say, Rodgers picks on struggling cornerbacks.
Unfortunately, Jordy should spend his day in the strongest coverage. It is impossible to avoid Rodgers’ top target on a four-game slate, but the situation is noteworthy.
Notable Upgrades
Michael Crabtree vs. Jonathan Joseph
Joseph is no slouch, but he has definitely been outplayed by A.J. Bouye this season. Bouye grades as PFF’s third-best cornerback in coverage, tied with Aqib Talib. Joseph grades as the 60th-ranked cornerback in coverage. Bouye plays only the right corner position and does not shadow opposing wide receivers. Therefore, Crabtree, who spends 50 percent of his time as the right wide receiver, will avoid him for the majority of the day. In a slate in which value is hard to find, Crabtree will look to take advantage of the better matchup in this game. Unfortunately, Connor Cook is his quarterback.
Marvin Jones vs. DeShawn Shead and Anquan Boldin vs. Jeremy Lane
With Earl Thomas on the field this season, the Seahawks have allowed only seven touchdowns to 10 interceptions. Since losing Thomas, the Seahawks have allowed nine touchdowns and have grabbed only one interception. With the Seattle secondary struggling as a whole, the Seahawks are likely to use Richard Sherman in shadow coverage on Golden Tate. This leaves Shead to cover Jones on the outside and Lane on Boldin in the slot. Both Lane and Shead are allowing over 0.30 fantasy points per route this season.
Doug Baldwin vs. Johnson Bademosi
The Lions have struggled in the slot for two straight seasons. Quandre Diggs struggled as the 103rd-ranked cornerback in coverage, per PFF, before going onto IR. He was replaced by Ravens castoff Asa Jackson for a short period. Jackson was then placed on IR after Week 17. Basically, the Lions have to scramble to replace their slot cornerback by Sunday. Good luck with that.
Notable Downgrades
Amari Cooper vs. A.J. Bouye
While Crabtree will avoid Bouye, Cooper will be stuck in his coverage for the majority of the game. Plus, Cooper has only one game over 60 yards since Week 8.
Golden Tate vs. Richard Sherman
While Jones and Boldin will likely avoid Sherman’s coverage, Tate is likely to be shadowed by Sherman on over 70 percent of his snaps. Sherman has not been perfect this season, but he still grades as PFF’s 16th-best cornerback in coverage and is allowing only 0.21 fantasy points per route.
