The Wide Receiver Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
It’s January, which can only mean one thing: The playoffs are here! We’ll take a look at every passing game matchup in the playoffs to determine who is poised for success and who isn’t. It’s #WildCardWeekend, so keep your head on a swivel out there.
As always, this breakdown is explicitly for the four-game main slate although it has wider applicability.
The Big Two
The Wild Card round gives us just two receivers who find themselves as their team’s undisputed No. 1 receiving option. They’ve sat atop the wide receiver salary scale for awhile:
- Julio Jones ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
- Michael Thomas ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)
Somehow the only thing standing in the way of these 6’3″ receivers is their coaches’ tendencies to give their running backs targets inside the 20-yard line. Man, 2017 was weird.
Playoff Julio
Jones posted a more-than-respectable season-long 88-1,444-3 line this season, but racked up just four games with 100-plus yards after having at least seven such games per season the previous three years. Jones posted four-year lows in average DraftKings points per game (PPG), Plus/Minus, and Consistency Rating (per our Trends Tool). On Saturday night, he’s expected to see plenty of Trumaine Johnson, who hasn’t exactly locked down some of the league’s better receivers in shadow coverage this season.
- Dez Bryant: 13 tgts, 5-98-0
- Marqise Lee: 10 tgts, 5-83-0
- DeAndre Hopkins: 14 tgts, 7-111-0
- Michael Thomas: 8 tgts, 5-52-0
- Alshon Jeffery: 11 tgts, 5-52-1
Jones is the only receiver in each of the past two seasons to average over three yards per route run. Even a tough matchup against the Rams’ third-ranked defense in pass DVOA shouldn’t dissuade Matt Ryan from continuing to feed the league’s most-physically gifted receiver inside the 10-yard line and over 20-plus yards at a top-five rate. Ryan has targeted Jones eight-plus times in five of his six career playoff games. I think even Ryan would agree he’ll try to avoid replicating the fateful decision to target Jones just four times last February. Jones carries the slate’s highest projected floor and projected ceiling among all wide receivers on both DraftKings and FanDuel in our Pro Models.
Be sure to monitor our Ownership Dashboard shortly after lock to see if Jones’ status as the highest-priced receiver across the industry leads to reduced ownership across various contest levels.
Michael Thomas, Owner of the Carolina Panthers
Death, taxes, Thomas dominating the Panthers:
- 5 tgts, 5-78-1
- 5 tgts, 5-68-0
- 8 tgts, 7-87-1
- 9 tgts, 5-70-1
He’s caught 22 of 27 targets against corners James Bradberry and Daryl Worley – PFF’s No. 102 and No. 88 overall cornerbacks this season. Thomas practiced in full on Thursday and appears to be past his nagging hamstring issue given he played on 91 percent of the snaps and earned a 27 percent target share last week. Be sure to monitor our Injury Dashboard to view Thomas’ daily practice participation and estimated game status for the Wild Card Round.
Thomas leads the Saints’ fourth-ranked scoring offense in both targets inside the 10-yard line and balls thrown 20-plus yards downfield. This incredibly fantasy-friendly workload has Thomas sitting atop the Levitan and Bales models. He has the best matchup of the week against a Panthers defense that has been repeatedly beaten by WR1s as of late and has allowed a slate-high 1.2 DraftKings points above salary-based expectation to the position over the past 12 months.
Fly Patterns
Mohamed Sanu ($5,600 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel) and Taylor Gabriel ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel): Sanu had five-plus targets in all but three games this season, but carries a relatively low ceiling considering he hasn’t gained over 100 yards in a game since October 2014. He also has a less than ideal matchup against Nickell Robey-Coleman, who allowed the fifth-fewest average yards per cover snap among all full-time slot corners this season. Gabriel has averaged over five fewer yards per rush and reception without Kyle Shanahan pulling the strings of the Falcons offense this season. Exposure to Sanu should be focused on FanDuel, where he has a 92 percent Bargain Rating and the second-highest projected Plus/Minus among all wide receivers.
Be sure to utilize our Matchups tool to break down each week’s WR/CB matchups.
Robert Woods ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel), Sammy Watkins ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel), and Cooper Kupp ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel): All three Rams receivers hold standalone value as key pieces in the league’s No. 1 scoring offense, but they’ve clearly been utilized in different fashions by head coach Sean McVay:
The above totals are only from games in which all the three receivers were healthy. Woods is clearly the alpha of the group, while Kupp’s red-zone volume is less impressive considering he’s tied for third among all wide receivers in targets inside the 20-yard line – but tied for 30th in targets inside the 10-yard line. Watkins’ big-play potential might not be as high against a Falcons defense that is one of just five units to allow fewer than five pass plays of 40-plus yards this season. Woods has the highest projected ceiling and floor outside of the slate’s three highest-priced receivers.
Devin Funchess ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) and Brenton Bersin ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): The Saints haven’t asked stud rookie corner Marshon Lattimore to shadow Funchess this season and he’s in turn posted 4-58-0 and 4-60-1 lines on an at-times overmatched Ken Crawley. The return of Greg Olsen has cost Funchess his role as Cam Newton‘s No. 1 target, as Funchess has just 14 total targets over the past three weeks. Bersin’s eight targets over the last two weeks are hardly worth a dart throw against the league’s fifth-ranked defense in pass DVOA. Both receivers are below both Olsen and Christian McCaffrey in Newton’s pecking order. Per our Correlations Dashboard, the average correlation between a quarterback and their RB1 this season has been a middling 0.09. Newton and McCaffrey’s fantasy production has a strong +0.39 correlation since the beginning of this season, which makes sense given the running back’s huge pass-game role. Consider using our Lineup Builder to stack Newton with McCaffrey on Sunday.
Kelvin Benjamin ($3,500 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel), Zay Jones ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel), and Deonte Thompson ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): Antonio Brown was the only receiver to clear 100 receiving yards on the Jaguars this season. Both Benjamin (knee) and Thompson (shoulder) are expected to play through their lingering injuries, but it’s tough to target any pass options against the Jaguars’ historically-great secondary even with near-minimum price tags. Benjamin seemingly has the best chance at overcoming Jalen Ramsey and company given his size (6’5″ 240 pounds) and workload (6+ targets in 3 of 4 full games with Buffalo). Receivers have posted a -1.6 Plus/Minus on DraftKings with a 27.8 percent Consistency Rating when implied to score fewer than 16 points since 2014, which doesn’t bode well for the Bills’ pass catchers and their slate-low 15.5-point implied total. They’ll all have to deal with Tyrod Taylor’s historically severe home/away splits.
Rishard Matthews ($4,900 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel), Corey Davis ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel), and Erik Decker ($3,500 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel): All the Titans receivers are set up well against the Chiefs’ league-worst defense in weighted DVOA that has allowed the second-most average DraftKings PPG to opposing wide receiver units this season. The Chiefs defense has continued to function as a much stronger unit when playing at Arrowhead:
- Chiefs defense at home since 2016 (16 games):16.3 PPG, 230.7 pass yards, 0 games of 30+ points allowed
- On the road (16 games): 24.3 PPG, 263.7 pass yards, 4 games of 30+ points allowed
Davis has surpassed 50 receiving yards in a game once since Week 1, while Matthews has fewer than eight targets in all but one of his seven games since the Titans’ Week 8 bye. Decker has emerged as Marcus Mariota‘s most-trusted target lately, converting 16 targets in Weeks 15-16 into a 9-91-0 line. They all work behind Delanie Walker in Mariota’s pecking order in the league’s sixth-most run-heavy offense. Each receiver has a projected floor on DraftKings under 2.0 points.
Marqise Lee ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel), Dede Westbrook ($4,400 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel), Allen Hurns ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel), and Keelan Cole ($5,400 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel): Lee’s status remains murky as he’s yet to return to practice since spraining his ankle in Week 15. He’s reportedly expected to play through it, and head coach Doug Marrone indicated he can play even without returning to practice this week. Hurns regained primary slot duties in his first game back in Week 17, so Lee’s potential return would mostly sink the ceiling and floors of Cole and Westbrook. It’s tough to get behind any of the pass catchers from the league’s most run-heavy offense, especially with a tough matchup against the Bills’ 12th-ranked defense in pass DVOA. The Bills defense ranked among the top four units in Plus/Minus and Consistency Rating allowed to wide receivers units during the second half of the season.
Albert Wilson ($3,300 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel) and Demarcus Robinson ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): Wilson converted a career-high 11 targets last week into a 10-147-0 line with Pat Mahomes under center and Tyreek Hill/Travis Kelce sidelined. He’s not expected to receive double-digit targets again considering his previous career high was just eight, but Wilson was receiving a larger role in prior weeks as well. Wilson racked up at least seven targets in three of his five games from Weeks 12-16 after failing to surpass five targets in a game in Weeks 1-8. Robinson’s own career-high 10 targets last week were preceded by three consecutive goose eggs. Wilson has the toughest matchup of the group against Titans’ slot corner Logan Ryan and Robinson’s often non-existent workload makes him little more than an athletically-gifted dart throw. Now, let’s get to the Chiefs’ No. 1 receiver …
The Model Wide Receivers
There are several wide receivers atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek), with the following two receivers standing out among multiple models:
- Tyreek Hill ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
- Ted Ginn Jr. ($5,200 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)
Hill’s season-long 75-1,183-7 line in his first season as the Chiefs’ featured receiver was good for WR4 honors in DraftKings PPG among all receivers to play at least five games. Next up is a Titans defense seemingly capable of limiting Hill’s big plays given they’re one of just four units to allow fewer than 40 passes of 20-plus yards this season. Still, that secondary could be without Brice McCain (hamstring, questionable) in addition to LeShaun Sims (hamstring, IR). Hill will likely see plenty of both Ryan and first-round pick Adoree’ Jackson – two of just 19 corners to allow five-plus touchdowns passes this season.
There isn’t much to dislike about Hill’s passing-game matchup and it also wouldn’t be surprising in the least if he manages another four-to-five touches in the rushing and return game. Hill is the Chiefs’ top candidate to return kicks with both De’Anthony Thomas (leg) and Akeem Hunt (ankle) on IR. Additionally, last year’s playoff matchup against the Steelers was one of just five total games in which he’s had at least three carries in a game. As Hill proved last season on his only offensive touch against the Titans, any extra touches he receives can become deadly awfully fast:
Tyreek Hill's only career offensive touch against the Titans was a good one pic.twitter.com/bV8QD6s0qU
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 4, 2018
Hill is a top-three rated receiver in both our Levitan and Bales model on DraftKings, although his cozy matchup against the Titans’ 24th-ranked defense in pass DVOA is certainly a factor in his position-high FantasyLabs projected ownership.
Ginn has posted 2-44-1 and 2-27-0 line in his two #RevengeGames against the Panthers this season, obviously demonstrating the boom-or-bust nature of his fantasy production. This shouldn’t be viewed as a negative on Ginn. Most receivers don’t even have “boom” in their range of outcomes. He’s one of just 19 receivers to average over 1.9 yards per route run this season, while only Hill and Juju Smith-Schuster topped Ginn’s average of 11.4 yards per target. The Panthers haven’t found much success with similar field-stretching types, as Robby Anderson (6-146-2), Chris Godwin (3-98-0) and Kenny Stills (6-66-0) all had their way with the league’s 19th-ranked defense in DVOA vs. WR1s and WR2s.
Assuming Ginn continues to spend the majority of his snaps as the offense’s right wide receiver, he’s positioned to take advantage of the Panthers’ 25th-ranked defense in DVOA on passes to that side of the field. Bradberry has been the primary culprit, allowing the second-most yards among all full-time corners this season. Ginn’s status as the No. 2 receiver in the slate’s highest-implied offense helps give him the third-highest projected ceiling and floor among receivers priced under $5500 on DraftKings.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to research the wide receivers for yourself with our tools and read the other Week 17 positional breakdowns.
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Tight Ends
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed.
Photo via Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
