The Running Back Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
It’s January which can only mean one thing: The playoffs are here! We’ll take a look at every run-game matchup in the playoffs to determine who is poised for success and who isn’t. It’s #WildCardWeekend, so keep your head on a swivel out there.
As always, this breakdown is explicitly for the four-game main slate although it has wider applicability.
The Big One
Todd Gurley‘s post-Jeff Fisher dominance has been nothing short of remarkable, although Rams head coach Sean McVay predicted as much back in training camp. With Le’Veon Bell and the Steelers resting, Gurley sits atop the running back salary scale:
- Todd Gurley ($9,700 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel)
It turns out feeding a 6’1″ 222-pound workhorse who doubles as the league’s third-fastest running back is a good idea.
2017’s Fantasy (and real life?) MVP
Gurley’s accession as a receiver can’t be understated. He converted 84 targets in 2015-2016 into a 64-515-0 line, but exploded for a 64-788-6 line on 87 looks this season. This would make Gurley the PPR WR25 before taking into consideration his rushing production. A receiving floor this high is unfair when coupled with Gurley’s plethora of fantasy-friendly opportunities on the ground, as he’s converted a league-high 18 carries inside the five-yard line into a league-high nine touchdowns from that distance. Throw in 15 rushes of 15-plus yards (tied for 4th among all backs) and we have a three-down machine that was cooked up by the fantasy gods.
Most impressive about Gurley’s performance this season was how he often obliterated opposing defenses that were otherwise solid against the run. Overall, he racked up the second-most rush yards among all backs against the Cowboys and Jaguars and the most rush yards against the Seahawks, Cardinals and Titans. Up next is a Falcons defense that has surrendered a league-high 6.4 receptions per game to running backs over the past calendar year. The potential absence of PFF’s No. 17 overall edge defender Adrian Clayborn (calf, questionable) would be further bad news for one of the most banged up teams in the playoffs. Gurley carries the highest projected ceiling, floor and projected Plus/Minus among all skill position players in our Pro Models.
Per our Correlations Dashboard, the average correlation between a quarterback and their RB1 this season has been a middling 0.07. Jared Goff and Gurley‘s fantasy production has a strong +0.43 correlation since Goff took over under center last season, which makes sense given the running back’s huge pass-game role. Consider using our Lineup Builder to stack Goff with Gurley on Saturday.
Up the Gut
Alvin Kamara ($8,600 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel) and Mark Ingram ($6,900 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel): The Panthers’ sixth-ranked defense in rush DVOA has managed to stifle nearly every rushing attack they’ve encountered behind the league’s fifth-best defensive line in adjusted line yards and all-world Luke Kuechly – PFF’s No. 2 overall linebacker. Still, that success hasn’t carried over against the Saints’ second-ranked offensive line in adjusted line yards, as the Panthers have allowed an average of 148.5 rush yards in two games against their division rival compared to 79.4 rush yards per game vs. everyone else. While the potential absence of left tackle Terron Armstead (thigh, questionable) could change the balance of power at the line of scrimmage, both Ingram and Kamara offer plenty of value in their respective roles as the fourth-ranked scoring offense’s featured goal-line and receiving back. Boom and Zoom have each surpassed 20 DraftKings PPG together in four of their last eight games.
LeSean McCoy ($7,500 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel), Mike Tolbert ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel), and Marcus Murphy ($3,700 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel): McCoy is reportedly a game-time decision for Sunday, but won’t be 100 percent even if he’s ultimately able to suit up. Be sure to monitor our Injury Dashboard to keep track of daily practice participation and estimated game status for all fantasy-relevant players . If Shady is able to suit up, he’ll have to overcome his quarterback’s severe home/away splits in addition to a historically elite Jaguars defense that ranks first in overall DVOA. Tolbert is a 32-year-old who reportedly runs a 5.9-second 40-yard dash while Murphy is an unproven former seventh-round pick who stands just 5’8″ and weighs 188 pounds. Murphy has converted his 11 offensive touches since entering the league in 2015 into 48 total yards and zero touchdowns. Neither back offers much scoring upside given the Bills’ slate-low implied total of 15.5 points while facing a Jaguars’ front seven that has five players graded among the top-20 at their position by PFF this season. The Jaguars’ previously-shoddy run defense has allowed 39.7 fewer rushing yards per game since adding run-stuffing tackle Marcell Dareus in Week 9.
Derrick Henry ($6,000 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel): Henry played 97 percent of the offense’s snaps and racked up a career-high 28 carries during his first career game as the Titans’ featured back last Sunday. He only converted his rushes into 51 yards but managed to take his lone reception 66 yards to the end zone. DeMarco Murray (knee, out) hasn’t practiced all week and was officially ruled out on Thursday. Even if he had been ultimately able to suit up, it wouldn’t have been surprising to see plenty of Henry considering he’s averaged an additional 0.6 yards per carry compared to Murray while racking up more broken tackles, runs of 15-plus yards, and games with 100-plus rushing yards this season. Henry will look to improve upon last Sunday’s rushing performance against a Chiefs defense that ranks dead last in rush DVOA, although they’ve certainly been a different animal at Arrowhead:
- Chiefs defense at home since 2016 (16 games):16.3 PPG, 353.4 total yards, 0 games of 30+ points allowed
- On the road (16 games): 24.3 PPG, 380.3 total yards, 4 games of 30+ points allowed
Devonta Freeman ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) and Tevin Coleman ($4,100 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel): Freeman injured his knee in Week 17, although he returned to a limited practice on Wednesday and is tentatively expected to suit up Saturday against the Rams. If he’s able to play, he’ll offer upside thanks to the second-largest goal line role on the slate behind Gurley. Freeman’s 9-85-1 line on 11 targets last Sunday demonstrated he’s far from an afterthought in the Falcons passing game. If Freeman can’t suit up, Coleman will likely become the slate’s highest-owned back and a massive value across the industry. It’d be warranted, as Coleman averaged 16.8 DraftKings PPG with a +3.6 Plus/Minus on an average of 20.3 touches in three games with Freeman sidelined this season (per our Trends Tool). The fact that Coleman is electric in space and simply very good at football certainly helps his chances at success against the Rams’ 22nd-ranked defense in rush DVOA:
Tevin Coleman is faster than you pic.twitter.com/32PP4r3oS8
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 4, 2018
Christian McCaffrey ($6,400 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel) and Jonathan Stewart ($3,500 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel): Stewart was a surprise late scratch last week due to a back injury, but head coach Ron Rivera said that J-Stew is already feeling better and should be good to go for Sunday. McCaffrey didn’t exactly benefit from his absence anyway, as he received just six carries while playing 85 percent of the offense’s snaps. He’s converted 17 targets against the Saints into a 14-134-1 line this season and will look to find more success on the ground this time around against the Saints’ 23rd-ranked defense in rush DVOA that has lost four starters throughout the year in their front seven. Life is tough for both backs in the red zone with yet another bonafide RB1 under center and those fantasy-friendly opportunities could be limited given the Panthers currently have the slate’s third-lowest implied total. McCaffrey has the second-lowest projected ceiling and floor among all backs priced over $6,000 on DraftKings.
The Model Running Backs
There are several running backs atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek), with the following two backs standing out among multiple models:
- Leonard Fournette ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel)
- Kareem Hunt ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)
Fournette wasn’t rested down the stretch of the season, but he’s healthy and headed into the playoffs as the three-down back on the league’s most-run heavy offense. T.J. Yeldon played 44 percent of the offense’s snaps in Week 17 and has remained relevant with 7.9 touches per game, but Fournette has quietly carved out a decent-sized receiving role in addition to his undisputed goal-line back status. Fournette’s average of four targets per game since the Jaguars’ Week 8 bye is more than the likes of McCoy, Hunt, and Ingram. He’s one of just four backs with at least seven games of 20-plus carries this season. Fournette couldn’t have asked for a better matchup to make his playoff debut.
The Bills’ 31st-ranked defense in rush DVOA ranks among the bottom-four units in second level and open field yards allowed per rush. In other words, they haven’t exactly slowed down anyone and don’t tackle well. Part of the problem has been the absence of their longtime run-stuffing defensive tackle Marcell Dareus, who they traded to the Jaguars for a sixth-round pick prior to their Week 8 matchup against the Raiders. It’s safe to say the Jaguars have won the trade:
Fournette is the highest-rated back in the Levitan, Bales, and SportsGeek models in large part thanks to his matchup against a Bills defense that has allowed a slate-high 1.7 DraftKings points above salary-based expectation to running backs over the past 12 months. The only downside of Fournette’s great spot is he comes with the second-highest projected ownership among all running backs. Be sure to check out our Ownership Dashboard shortly after lock to see how chalky Fournette is at various contest sizes.
Hunt’s only rush in Week 17 went for a 35-yard touchdown, marking the fifth time in as many games that he found the end zone after head coach Andy Reid handed off play calling duties to offensive coordinator Matt Nagy. It’s no wonder he’s found the promised land more often, as Hunt’s usage and production has sky rocketed since the change:
- Hunt Weeks 1-12: 18.8 DraftKings PPG, -0.9 Plus/Minus, 27.3% Consistency, 25.2% Ownership
- Weeks 13-16: 24.6 DraftKings PPG, +7.0 Plus/Minus, 50.0% Consistency, 11.5% Ownership
Not including his rest-filled game in Week 17, Hunt has averaged an additional five rushes and 1.4 targets per game in four full contests after the coaching shift. His ten carries inside the 10-yard line in Weeks 13-16 are more than he had in Weeks 1-12 combined (per 4for4’s Chris Raybon). It makes sense to feed the only back in the league to rank among the top three backs in both Elusive Rating and percentage of runs to go for 15-plus yards (PFF). Next up for Hunt is a Titans defense that only Gurley has broken 100 yards against this season, although they rank 31st in DVOA on runs over left tackle – precisely where the Chiefs’ eighth-ranked unit looks to run the ball behind former No. 1 overall pick Eric Fisher. Hunt has the highest projected ceiling/floor combination in our models other than Gurley.
Be sure to utilize our Matchups tool to break down each week’s battles at the line of scrimmage.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to research the running backs for yourself with our tools and read the other NFL Wild Card Round positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
• Defense & Special Teams
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed.
Photo via Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
