The weekly Funnel Defense Ratings uses advanced data to analyze situations in which teams are more likely to pass or run than they usually do. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
Earlier this season I introduced a new funnel metric; see that piece for the explanation on how I created it. The metric has some hits and misses and there are a couple reasons it’s best thought of as descriptive rather than predictive. First, I don’t incorporate Vegas data (although I’ll include it in the ratings table below), mostly because I don’t have exact numbers on historical run/pass ratios based on Vegas spreads and implied team totals. That’s a large project perhaps for the offseason. Second, and this is important to remember, some teams simply refuse to funnel production to either part of their offense. We saw this with the Steelers in Week 5: Although the opposing Jaguars boasted an elite secondary and were the best against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), Ben Roethlisberger chucked it 55 times.
I’ve given lots of my thoughts on the pros and cons of this analysis in past pieces and we’ve written about how sometimes coaches suck at coaching football. Instead of yet another rant, let’s dive right into the Wild Card funnel ratings.
Potential Shootout Games
There are only four games on the slate this weekend and none look like games that could shoot out. The Titans-Chiefs affair leads the quartet with a combined pass funnel rating of 59.04. For reference, that would have ranked 11th out of the 16 games in Week 17. We’ll get to potential intriguing pass funnel situations below, but, overall, this doesn’t look like a week to go crazy with a game stack and hope for it to smash the Vegas total. The playoffs are here.
The Chiefs have posted some huge scores this year and they’ve scored between 26 and 31 points in each of their past five games — a time that coincides with offensive coordinator Matt Nagy taking over play calling duties from Andy Reid. The Titans have had a pass funnel defense this year, ranking seventh in rush DVOA but a poor 24th in pass DVOA. They’re particularly bad versus TEs and pass-catching backs, ranking 24th and 32nd, respectively. That is incredibly enticing given the talent and workload of Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt, who have smashed value with Nagy lately. The Titans offense has been uninspiring this season, but so has the Chiefs defense, which ranks 30th overall. Interestingly, this game has a lower total than both Falcons-Rams and Panthers-Saints, so it could come with an unexpected ownership value.
Notable Potential Funnels
The team with the highest funnel rating is the Jaguars with an 85.96 run funnel rating against the Bills. And that’s not a case of the slate being a small one: That mark would have easily been the top run funnel rating of last week’s massive 16-game slate. The Jaguars love to run the ball with their top-five pick Leonard Fournette, rushing on 48.9 percent of their plays. And they have a brilliant matchup to do exactly that against a Bills squad that ranks 12th against the pass and 31st against the run. That’s a strong run funnel, and it’s one the Jags will likely stumble into anyway as large 8.5-point home favorites. Matchup-wise, Fournette is in the best spot of the slate.
The team with the second-largest funnel rating is the Bills on the other side of that game with a 73.51 run funnel rating. The Jags continue to be a strong run funnel, ranking first by a mile in pass DVOA but just 26th in rush DVOA. The big question with the Jags is whether their run defense is that bad or whether they can round into a top unit with the addition of Marcell Dareus. I wrote this in a piece earlier this week on whether the Jags are legitimate Super Bowl contenders:
However, it’s fair to wonder just how much of an issue that really is. The Jags acquired run-stopper Marcell Dareus during the middle of the season, and they have interesting splits with him. They have allowed 15.7 points per game in seven games without him and 17.6 in nine games with him, although that latter number is very inflated by Jimmy Garoppolo dropping 44 on them in Week 16. Take that game out of the sample, and they’ve allowed 14.3 PPG otherwise. It’s not fair to cherry-pick the sample like that, but it does show their potential without one bad game (in which they didn’t have a lot to play for). Even with that game, they’ve allowed 138.6 rushing yards per game without Dareus and 98.9 with him. Each of their three worst rushing performances allowed this season came before they acquired him.
The league’s best defenses have historically won Super Bowls and the Jags’ run defense is the only thing stopping them from being in that group. Their pass defense is among the 10-best units since 1990. This game will show us a lot about them, because if the Bills, especially with a hobbled LeSean McCoy or backups Mike Tolbert and Marcus Murphy, can have success on the ground, that’s not a good sign moving forward in the playoffs for the Jags. Ian Hartitz doesn’t seem concerned in this week’s RB Breakdown:
Neither back [Tolbert and Murphy] offers much scoring upside given the Bills’ slate-low implied total of 15.5 points while facing a Jaguars’ front seven that has five players graded among the top-20 at their position by PFF this season. The Jaguars’ previously-shoddy run defense has allowed 39.7 fewer rushing yards per game since adding run-stuffing tackle Marcell Dareus in Week 9.
The three strongest pass funnel situations this week — although, again, compared to a regular slate these are weak — are the Falcons, Chiefs, and Titans. I already discussed the Chiefs-Titans game above, so let’s briefly touch on Atlanta. The Falcons have certainly regressed this season offensively, but they’re still ninth in total offensive DVOA and 10th in pass DVOA. They actually face a fairly strong run funnel in the Rams, who rank third against the pass and 22nd against the run. That said, the Falcons have had a below-average run game this season, and it seems unlikely they’ll have immense success in that regard this week as a 6.5-point road dog. If they’re going to take down the dominant Rams, Matt Ryan and Julio Jones will have to put their stamp on this game.
Good luck, and research the Wild Card games for yourself with our Tools and Models.
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Bryan Mears is an editor at FantasyLabs and host of the Daily Fantasy Flex podcast.
Photo via Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
