The Defense and Kicker Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL homepage.
Per the Trends tool, defenses with salaries of at least $3,500 on DraftKings (91 teams) averaged 10.09 points with a +1.91 Plus/Minus and a 58.2 percent Consistency Rating during the regular season this year. Defenses with salaries of at least $4,800 on FanDuel (117 teams) have averaged 9.55 points with a +2.10 Plus/Minus and a 58.1 percent Consistency Rating. With the regular season completed, high-priced defenses averaged more points per game (PPG) on DraftKings but provided more bang for your bucks in terms of Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
The Big One Defense
- Jacksonville ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)
Let’s swim move.
Big Cats on the Prowl
The Jacksonville Jaguars finished the regular season as the highest-scoring and most valuable (in terms of Plus/Minus) fantasy defense of the last four seasons. That is not Hump’s opinion; that is a fact. The Jaguars averaged 12.69 PPG with a +4.46 Pus/Minus on DraftKings and a +5.19 Plus/Minus on FanDuel in their 16 regular season games this year. That’s 0.69 PPG better than the 2014-15 Philadelphia Eagles and well above the 2015-16 Kansas City Chiefs +3.49 Plus/Minus.
In the Wild Card round, the Jaguars are slate-high 8.5-point favorites in the game with the lowest total on the slate (39.5) against the Bills, who are implied to score a slate-low 15.5 points in #Sacksonville. It should be noted, the Jaguars D/ST was much more dominant on the road during the second half of this season. In their five most recent home games, Jacksonville averaged 9.40 PPG with a +0.65 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +1.53 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. Comparably, they averaged a whopping 17.50 PPG with a +9.33 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +9.96 Plus/Minus on FanDuel away from Jacksonville this season.
The Jaguars finished second in the NFL with 55 sacks, a 9.6 percent sack rate, and were tied for second with their 9.1 percent adjusted sack rate (per Football Outsiders). Buffalo’s offensive line finished the regular season as one of the worst in the NFL, allowing the second-highest adjusted sack rate (9.3 percent) in the league this season. We currently have the Jaguars projected for the most sacks (4.6) by a country mile this week — no other team is projected for more than 2.9. Jacksonville led the NFL with their 4.1 percent interception rate and ranked second with 21 interceptions this season. We currently have them projected at very-chalky 20-plus percent ownership on both sites this week.
Bump and Run
Jam ’em at the line.
Kansas City Chiefs ($3,400 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel): The Chiefs have now averaged 9.88 PPG with a +2.83 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +2.92 Plus/Minus on FanDuel with a 75.0 percent Consistency Rating in eight home games this season. Kansas City turned up the heat at home down the stretch however: They averaged 11.00 PPG with a +4.03 Plus/Minus on both sites in their final five home games this season. On the other hand, Tennessee hasn’t been overly kind to opposing defenses, surrendering 6.20 PPG with a -0.81 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a -0.74 Plus/Minus on FanDuel in their final five road games of this season. Kansas City — second on the slate as 8-point favorites — has posted 10 sacks, seven interceptions, and one defensive touchdown in their last four games.
New Orleans Saints ($3,200 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel): The Saints host the Panthers as seven-point favorites and have our second-highest projected sack total (2.9) on the slate. Carolina’s offesive line allowed the 14th-highest adjusted sack rate (7.1 percent) and the New Orleans defense registered the sixth-best adjusted sack rate (7.8 percent) during the regular season. The Saints were tied for sixth in the NFL with 42 sacks and ranked third with their 20 interceptions and 3.6 percent interception rate this season. New Orleans averaged 10.0 PPG with a +3.00 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +3.36 Plus/Minus on FanDuel at home this season. Playing in the final game of Wild Card Weekend, the Saints D/ST present an interesting hammer opportunity.
The One Big Kicker
Let’s put it through the uprights.
Will Lutz ($5,200), playing as a 7-point favorite at home in the Coors Field of fantasy football, takes the reins atop the kicking salary spectrum this week. Lutz’s 10.3 median point projection and his +1.84 Projected Plus/Minus both rank fifth among the eight kickers on the slate this week even though the Saints have a slate-high 27.5-point implied points total. Kickers with comparable implied team totals in the Superdome have averaged 8.58 FPPG and a +0.54 Plus/Minus with a 52.1 percent Consistency Rating since 2014. Lutz has performed well enough in these spots, averaging 10.00 FPPG with a +1.89 Plus/Minus and 60.0 percent Consistency.
The Onside Kick
Get the hands team out there.
Harrison Butker ($4,900): Butker has our highest projected Plus/Minus (+6.01) and median points projection (14.2) on the slate and is the No. 1 rated kicker in Adam Levitan’s Player Model. The Chiefs are 8-point favorites at home against Tennessee and Butker averaged 14.50 PPG with a +5.83 Plus/Minus at home this season. If you’re not using our Lineup Builder to make a bunch of Butker and Chiefs D/ST stacks, Hump suggests you rethink your strategy.
Sam Ficken ($4,500): The Rams kicker has our second-highest Projected Plus/Minus (+4.37) this week and Los Angeles has the second-highest implied points total (27.0) this week. Fricken has made two of three field goal attempts since taking over for the injured Greg Zuerlein this season.
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Good luck, and be sure to research the Wild Card Weekend games for yourself with our Tools and Models.
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