Justin Bailey is a single-lineup player who uses the FantasyLabs Tools to research slates and build daily fantasy rosters. This series — The Single-Entry Savant — highlights the tools he uses and methodology he applies to construct his lineups.
Single Lineup Synopsis
I’m a single-lineup player who generally plays 80 percent of my action in head-to-head games and the other 20 percent in single-entry tournaments. There is an abundance of decisions to make on a weekly or daily basis in DFS, but one thing that remains constant in my process each week is my game allocation:
- Try for at least 30 head-to-heads at a given buy-in level. Otherwise, enter some single-entry double-ups to supplement.
- Thirty $5 head-to-heads are safer than a $100 and $50 head-to-head.
- Stick to single-entry GPPs for your tournament allotment.
Remember: Keep it simple.
Catching Kelce
Travis Kelce is the first person I am building around for my lineups in Week 11. He ranks near the top in the Adam Levitan Player Model. Here’s a litany of reasons why:
Kelce leads the Chiefs with 8.3 targets per game since Week 4. He leads KC with three red-zone touchdowns and 26 percent of the red zone targets over the past six weeks. The Giants allow 5.6 receptions per game to tight ends (fifth-worst), and they rank bottom-three in receiving yards (70.2), touchdowns (1.1), and DraftKings points per target (2.32). And tight ends projected to score at least 15 points on DraftKings have historically averaged 15.68 DraftKings points with a +2.21 Plus/Minus. No wonder Kelce leads all tight ends in Pro Trends on DraftKings (seven) and FanDuel (10).
Rexy is Sexy
It never feels good rostering a Patriots’ running back when you’re running out one lineup, but Rex Burkhead‘s snaps are trending upward after he led New England’s backfield in Week 10 with 51 percent of the running back snaps. He also saw three red zone looks in Week 10, including a target from within the 5-yard line. Burkhead sports a 95 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings, allowing you the roster flexibility to go in any direction you choose.
James White has acted as the primary pass-catcher out of the backfield this year, but over the Patriots’ past two games, Burkhead has run 43 pass routes to White’s 24 per Pro Football Focus. It’s a supreme matchup as the Raiders rank 24th in Football Outsiders’ rush Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and 28th in pass DVOA against running backs. Tom Brady has targeted his running backs on 25.3 percent of his throws this season, the second-highest rate among quarterbacks. Burkhead leads all running backs with a +4.12 Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings. The Raiders have allowed running backs to exceed salary-based expectations by 1.5 DraftKings points over the past 12 months. Burkhead is also viable on FanDuel for $5,700, as he allows you to pay up for Kareem Hunt and take a balanced approach everywhere else.
Tom Brady Avoids Nightshades, but Don’t Avoid Tom Brady
Normally, paying down at quarterback has been the go-to move in roster construction this season, but the DFS landscape changes every week. Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown played Thursday night, which automatically eliminates two of the most expensive options from the main slate. So I’m building around Tom Brady this week, despite him being the most expensive quarterback on DraftKings and second-most expensive on FanDuel. The Patriots are scoring on 50.4 percent of their drives and turning the ball over on just 5.2 percent of them, both of which rank second overall. On the flip side, the Raiders’ “defense” is allowing teams to score on a league-high 43 percent of their drives, while forcing a league-low 4.3 percent turnover rate. They also rank dead last in pass DVOA, allowing a league-high 8.87 adjusted yards per attempt and a 71.8 completion rate.
The Patriots boast the slate’s highest implied team total at 31 points, which is a 3.25-point increase since their line opened. Since 2014, Brady and the Patriots have been implied for at least 29 points in 18 games. In those 18 games, Brady is averaging 24.78 DraftKings points per game with a +3.83 Plus/Minus and a 61.1 percent Consistency Rating. Brady checks all the boxes to justify paying up at quarterback this week.
The Redskins’ No. 1 Wide Receiver
Chris Thompson leads the Redskins with 38 receptions, 494 yards, and is tied with Josh Doctson for a team-high three touchdowns. Up until Jamison Crowder went on his two-game, 24-target rampage, Thompson was also the target leader. Rob Kelley (MCL) was placed on IR, and in the two games Kelley missed out this season, Thompson played 41 and 61 percent of the snaps while seeing 14 and 20 touches.
As 7.5-point underdogs, this game sets up well for Thompson’s pass-catching ability. Running backs are being targeting 27.8 percent of the time vs. the Saints, who field a much-improved secondary. The result? Running backs have averaged 9.1 targets and 6.4 receptions per game against New Orleans. Thompson is one of four running backs to average at least six targets per game over the past month. Per our Trends tool, running backs who average at least six targets per game over the past month have averaged 15.25 DraftKings points per game with a +2.26 Plus/Minus and 57.7 Consistency Rating. Thompson is an exceptional lineup differentiator with a modest Ownership Projection at 9-12 percent on DraftKings.
News Updates
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