In an article yesterday, I wrote about how possessions should be considered more important than minutes, as they’re truly what we can measure one player versus the other. My example was Mike Conley and Ty Lawson – although they may both play 35 minutes in a game, that doesn’t mean they have equal possessions, and thus equal opportunities to accumulate fantasy points. Minutes are useful, but they can be misleading.
I wanted to expand on this topic a bit, and do so by looking at last year’s data (up through February when I last pulled it) of team’s offensive possessions versus actually minutes. In doing so, we can look at the tangible difference between players on different teams. Here’s a table and graph of what I mean:
The table shows how many offensive possessions a team averaged per game last season. Because of the difference in these, we can extrapolate that data out and see how it affects players of various minute loads. As you can see, it’s not that big of a deal when you’re talking about players that are only averaging low minutes per game. And I think in that case – I’m not sure you would ever want to roster a player like that, but maybe in a small-slate tournament? – it shouldn’t really change how you feel about a player or a team.
However, if we’re talking about starters and guys who play a ton, then it really matters:
The difference between a 40-minute player on the 76ers and a 40-minute player on the Grizzlies was over four possessions. I know that seems like nothing, but when we’re talking about fairly low numbers – and I would consider one game’s worth of possessions a low number – it definitely matters. Think about it this way – rostering Zach Randolph instead of Nerlens Noel means you’re going to get over four less possessions out of ZBo, regardless of whether they actually play similar minutes. In tournaments especially, that can add up.
So should you avoid the Grizzlies and Bulls and all of the other low possession-teams? Of course not, but it should be a part of your thinking when you construct your lineups. Is Marc Gasol a better play than Dwight Howard if they play similar minutes and are at similar price points? Maybe, but don’t make that decision thinking that you’re getting similar possessions. Gasol is at the disadvantage in that situation, and while those extra possessions may not matter if Gasol is the better value or whatever anyway, there will be situations in which it really does matter and should change your line of thinking on a slate.
Possessions. Not minutes.
