The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features an eight-game slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Russell Westbrook is coming off another triple-double yesterday and remains underpriced on FanDuel, where his $11,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent. He has a solid matchup today against the New York Knicks (+2.30 Opponent Plus/Minus). Westbrook’s 14 Pro Trends on FanDuel lead all players on today’s slate. One red flag: today’s game is on the road for the second leg of a back-to-back, and Westbrook has historically seen a noticeable dip in fantasy production in those situations:
This isn’t just any back-to-back, either: Westbrook played more than 52 minutes in a grueling triple-overtime win yesterday, so it’s fair to wonder how much he has left in the tank.
Chris Paul has been an absolute stud recently:
I think it’s fair to say the concerns about Paul’s fit with the Rockets have been overblown, as they’ve rolled off 12 straight wins since his return to the lineup. He’s started to play more minutes recently and has scored at least 43.25 DraftKings points in five straight games. This is the second leg of a back-to-back against the brutal PG defense of the Milwaukee Bucks, but he might be too good of a value to pass up on DraftKings at just $8,600.
Values
It’s a really strong day for PG values, with multiple options having the potential to post big returns on their salary. Tony Parker is expected to rest today, which will likely result in Dejounte Murray joining the starting lineup. He’s been a strong replacement in games without Parker this season, averaging more than 32 FanDuel points per 36 minutes:
Murray has a strong matchup today against the Dallas Mavericks, who have allowed the fourth-highest average Plus/Minus to opposing PGs this season, and his $3,600 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Mario Chalmers had been very quiet for the past few weeks before busting out for 31.1 FanDuel points in 32 minutes on Friday. If he’s going to play that much going forward, he should be a massive value: He’s averaged over 27 FanDuel points per 36 minutes with Mike Conley off the floor this season. That said, the Grizzlies have been monitoring his minutes recently, and he’s playing facing a back-to-back; it’s very possible that they ease off the gas with him today.
Fast Break
The Clippers remain extremely shorthanded at the guard position, but they will get a little deeper with Milos Teodosic rejoining the rotation. Teodosic has posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.57 since returning from injury on Monday, and while he might not see more than 25 minutes, he figures to play a prominent role in the offense when on the court. Jawun Evans was really impressive for L.A. yesterday, racking up 41 DraftKings points in 40.5 minutes. Teodosic will definitely cut into Evans’ role today, but he still figures to play enough to potentially return value at just $3,200 on DraftKings.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The Rockets haven’t just been winning recently, they’ve been steamrolling teams, averaging 120 points per game over their 12-game win streak. Unsurprisingly, they lead today’s slate with an implied team total of 116.75 points, and their 11.5-point spread makes them the largest favorites of the day, as well. James Harden has failed to return value in either of his past two games, but that has more to do with the amount of minutes he’s played than his production when on the court. He’s maintained a ridiculously high usage rate despite the addition of Paul to the offense, and the string of recent blowouts for the Rockets has resulted in a salary decrease of $800 for Harden on FanDuel. The only potential concern is that today’s game is a back-to-back, but Harden has historically smashed in back-to-backs as long as the game is being played in Houston:
As long as the Rockets keep playing this well offensively, Harden should continue to offer one of the safest floors and highest ceilings in daily fantasy basketball.
Value
Donovan Mitchell may not have entered the season as a household name, but the rookie for the Jazz appears to be the real deal. He continues to play huge minutes despite Rodney Hood returning from injury and has an awesome matchup today against the defensively challenged Cleveland Cavaliers. It’s a big pace-up spot for the Jazz, resulting in a pace differential (paceD) of +4.8, and Mitchell’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.60 is one of the top marks at the position. His $6,900 salary on DraftKings is too cheap given his recent production and results in a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Fast Break
Tony Snell has missed the last three games for the Milwaukee Bucks, and if he’s out again today, it should result in huge minutes for Khris Middleton. He played 42 yesterday against the Chicago Bulls, and given his average of 1.08 fantasy points per minute over the past month, that kind of minute potential gives him a lot of upside at just $7,000 on DraftKings.
Here’s what Jimmy Butler has done over his past 10 games on DraftKings:
Butler’s salary has risen quite a bit over that time frame, but he still seems underpriced on DraftKings, where his $9,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent. The Timberwolves are one of the only teams on today’s slate that aren’t on a back-to-back, and their implied team total of 115 points trails only the Rockets’ on today’s slate.
Small Forward
Studs
Today’s battle at the top of the SF position pits LeBron James against Giannis Antetokounmpo, but there appears to between clear winner between the two. Giannis has been a beast all season, but he’s gotten a clear boost with the injury to Snell, averaging 41 minutes and just under 58 DraftKings points per game:
He’s in the top pace-up spot of the day against the Houston Rockets, owning a paceD of +5.8, and Giannis has a historical Plus/Minus of +2.93 on DraftKings in comparable pace-up situations. He leads the slate with 14 Pro Trends on DraftKings.
LeBron, meanwhile, has a brutal matchup with the Utah Jazz, resulting in a lower than normal implied team total of 109.25 for the Cavs. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.44, and LeBron is $800 more expensive than Giannis on DraftKings. With that said, he has been incredible recently, scoring at least 60 DraftKings points in five straight games, and the thought of getting LeBron at reduced ownership for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) is always appealing.
Regardless of who you choose, both LeBron and Giannis are significantly better values on DraftKings, where each has a Bargain Rating of at least 97 percent.
Value
Trevor Ariza seems underpriced across the industry, but his $4,800 salary on DraftKings seems particularly low given how many minutes he’s been playing recently. He’s projected for 35.7 in today’s contest, and Ariza has historically been an awesome value with a comparable minute projection and salary:
Fast Break
Sam Dekker showed his downside in yesterday’s contest, scoring just 9.25 DraftKings points, but he remains an appealing punt option given all the Clippers injuries. He’s currently projected for 26.9 minutes against the Heat, which would be more than enough for him to potentially return value at his current salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Power Forward
Stud
With both Parker and Kawhi Leonard expected to rest tonight, it could be the LaMarcus Aldridge show for the Spurs against the Dallas Mavericks. So far this season, Aldridge has averaged more than 42 FanDuel points per 36 minutes with both Parker and Leonard off the court:
The Mavs are a decent matchup for big men, thanks in part to their awful team rebounding rate. Aldridge has smashed them in three previous meetings this season, averaging 51.03 FanDuel points while posting a 100 percent Consistency Rating. You’ll want to monitor the rest situation for the Spurs today – he could always get Popovich’d on a back-to-back – but Aldridge seems relatively safe given that he only played 26.5 minutes yesterday.
Value
Derrick Favors left yesterday’s contest with an eye injury, but if he’s active, he figures to be one of the strongest values on the slate given the injury to Rudy Gobert. Favors smashed in 11 games without Gobert earlier this season, averaging more than 41 FanDuel points per 36 minutes:
If Favors can’t go – which is a strong possibility given his own injury situation – look for Epke Udoh to draw the start and play heavy minutes at the center position. He’s priced at the minimum on both sites and scored more than 20 fantasy points in 29 minutes of playing time yesterday. Regardless of who plays, they’ll have an excellent matchup against the Cavaliers, who have been one of the worst teams in the league against centers this season.
Fast Break
Taj Gibson has been one of the most reliable PFs on FanDuel over the past month, posting a Consistency Rating of 86 percent. He has an awesome matchup today against the Phoenix Suns, resulting in a Plus/Minus of +5.66. His $5,800 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
The best Opponent Plus/Minus among PFs on today’s slate belongs to James Johnson (+6.46), who’s playing the Los Angeles Clippers. He’s been a stud over his past four games, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.22, and he’s seen a nice bump in playing time since the injury to Hassan Whiteside.
Center
Stud
Is Karl-Anthony Towns officially back? His numbers from his past four games certainly suggest so, as he averaged a Plus/Minus of +17.18 while scoring at least 53.5 DraftKings points in each. No one really knows what the Suns will do at center on a given night, but if Tyson Chandler sits again, Towns will have a much better matchup than his Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.00 suggests. While Towns’ salary has risen quite a bit recently, his $9,600 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent. With a projected ownership of just 5-8 percent, he could be an appealing GPP target.
Value
The Celtics are a little shorthanded in their frontcourt at the moment, with Daniel Theis likely joining Marcus Morris on the inactive list for today’s contest. One player who could benefit from that is Al Horford, who has averaged 37.8 DraftKings points per 36 minutes with both players off the court this season:
He’s been priced down a bit for today’s contest with the Memphis Grizzlies, and his $6,600 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent. Horford has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.75 with a comparable salary since joining the Celtics last season.
Fast Break
DeAndre Jordan has really picked up his play recently, particularly on the glass. He’s ripped down at least 16 rebounds in seven of his last eight games, which gives him an extremely safe floor at just $7,300 on DraftKings. Jordan has a strong matchup today with the Heat, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.29, and he leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings.
Very few centers are better values today on FanDuel than DraftKings, with only four options owning a Bargain Rating of greater than 52 percent:
For that reason, Kevin Love could have some appeal on FanDuel, especially if Favors joins Gobert on the sidelines for today’s contest. He’s coming off a game with 52.7 FanDuel points and offers as much upside as anyone at the position.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
