This is a weekly series that follows MLB trends created with our Trends tool. Although the trends in this series are made with specific slates in mind, they are designed to remain relevant throughout the season.
6/12 – When Batters Are Not Themselves
Our Statcast data is great, but like all other data it needs to be placed into the proper context. For one player, a 40 percent recent fly ball rate is a red flag, while for another it represents the baseline. A player’s recent exit velocity may be impressive, but maybe his recent ground ball rate indicates that most of the time his batted balls are going straight into the ground (albeit with impressive speed).
With that in mind, let’s take a look at Mike Zunino on Monday’s slate. Zunino has been a two-outcome player over the past year: He’s either going to strike out or hit the ball very far most of the time. Among regular position players on Monday’s slate, he had the fourth-worst strikeout rate, but his average batted ball distance over the past 12 months ranked first among catchers.
Looking at Zunino’s recent Statcast data leading into Monday’s matchup against the Twins, one could see that there were several dramatic differences:
- His 15-day/12-month distance differential was +32 feet.
- His hard hit differential was +6 percentage points.
Based on the above numbers, Zunino was crushing the ball — but Zunino usually crushes the ball when he makes contact. What I found most intriguing about his recent numbers were the following changes:
- A fly ball differential of -14 percentage points
- A line drive differential of +18 percentage points
- An air time differential of half a second
Zunino wasn’t hitting soaring fly balls; he was SMOKING the ball. His high line drive rate actually brought him into cash consideration for me because I viewed him as less of a two-outcome player and more of a guy who could pick up a few hits.
Since his differentials were so dramatic, I set up a trend to review how Zunino has performed when his line drive rate has approached his current numbers:
Here are a few observations:
- Zunino doesn’t approach his current line drive rate very often, which makes sense, given the severity of his differentials.
- His ownership has not spiked when his line drive rate has been elevated.
- Although the sample is limited, the results are encouraging.
Unsurprisingly, Zunino’s increased line drive rate is something that DFS sites and players seem to have discounted.
Results
Even though the Mariners’ implied team total was 5.1 runs, Zunino remained largely overlooked. His average ownership rate in the contests we track via our DFS Ownership Dashboard was just eight percent, which was cheap for a guy with three hits, two runs batted in, one home run, and 22 DraftKings points.
6/13 – High Vegas Fades
On Tuesday, we had a team with an implied Vegas total that exceeded six runs in a stadium other than Coors Field. This scenario had occurred 15 times this season leading into Boston’s matchup with the Phillies. Implied for 6.1 runs, Boston’s hitters were sure to be popular.
It’s not easy coming up with (good) reasons to fade teams with such lofty totals, but I’d be damned if I wasn’t going to try to find one. [Editor’s Note: This was almost certainly an unconscious reverse jinx by a Red Sox homer.] Here’s something that stuck out to me: Although Vegas was setting a high line for the Red Sox, Phillies starter Ben Lively’s Statcast data actually looked good. Specifically, he had limited opposing batters to an average batted ball distance of 182 feet over his first two starts, a number that placed him within the top 10 percentile.
When a team has been implied to exceed six runs at a stadium other than Coors, batters in the top half of the lineup have historically averaged a +1.15 Plus/Minus on DraftKings at an ownership rate of 13.3 percent. When these same batters face pitchers with recent batted ball distances in the top quintile (or bottom quintile, since we’re looking at this from the perspective of hitters), the Plus/Minus drops to +0.12, but the ownership stays about the same. A +0.12 Plus/Minus isn’t horrible, but given their expected ownership levels the Red Sox looked like a team to fade.
Results
The results were mixed. Mitch Moreland hit a home run and Xander Bogaerts did well, but I was able to avoid the chalky Mookie Betts, who failed to score and appeared in 22.07 percent of GPP lineups. Implied to score 6.1 runs, Boston managed only four. Overall, this felt like a win. [Editor’s Note: Yeah, it felt like a win because the Red Sox won. Reverse jinx, successful.]
6/14 – Chalk Pineda
On Wednesday, Michael Pineda represented the chalk on DraftKings with a slate-high ownership projection of 31-35 percent ahead of his matchup against the Angels. Even if you did not play this slate, you probably already know how ‘Chalk Pineda’ turned out.
Ownership projections can be found everyday in our premium Player Models.
One of the primary reasons Pineda was expected to be popular was his matchup against the Angels, whose projected lineup was missing reigning AL MVP Mike Trout, who’s been out recently with a thumb injury. Since Los Angeles was marginal even with Trout, it made some sense to target the Trout-less Angels with pitchers. As it turns out, though, that was a bad idea. While the Angels lack a lot of power, they have continued their season-long trend of limiting strikeouts, which has led to poor production by opposing pitchers:
Results
At 34.55 percent ownership, Pineda scored 0.9 DraftKings points. True to form, the Angels limited Pineda to two strikeouts, his second-lowest mark this season.
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Thanks for following along with my three custom trends this week. As always, there’s plenty more left to be explored via the Labs Tools.
