Jeremy Hellickson: the eight-thousand-dollar man. Didn’t think you’d be seeing that a couple of months ago, did you?
Well, baseball is unpredictable; sometimes you’ll see some crazy shiznit happen. Just a month ago, Hellickson made his first start of the season after a winter of unemployment. If you were wondering why he was unemployed, it’s because he sucked last year.
In 2017, he made 30 starts between the Phillies and Orioles. The results weren’t pretty.
- 164 innings pitched, 5.43 ERA, 5.51 xFIP, 5.27 K/9 (gross), 1.92 HR/9 (also gross)
When it came to DraftKings, these poor numbers obviously didn’t translate very well, as he posted a Plus/Minus of -3.6, a Consistency Rating of 40% and an Upside Rating of just 3%. He failed to put up 25 points even once.
This season he’s a changed man, though! Through six starts, he has an ERA of just 2.20 and has rewarded DFS players who’ve had faith in him. His best start came against the same Padres he’s set to face tonight. He had an average ownership of just 2.2% on DraftKings and put up 33.8 points with just a $6,000 price tag.
However, these gaudy expectations he’s setting for himself and DFS players are scaring me.
There have been 405 pitchers since 2014 with a monthly salary change of +$3,000 or higher. Generally, they haven’t lived up to the spike in salary, as they’ve averaged just over one point less than expected. Only 54 of those guys have had a K/9 of fewer than seven over the past calendar year, which is the case with Hellickson. These pitchers have been awful.
There’s another simple trend that Hellickson unfortunately matches. He’s been getting lucky this season, which generally doesn’t hold up in the long run. One of the actual indications that he has improved this year is that his ground-ball rate has gone from 34.9% to 48.3% since last year. However, despite more ground balls, his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) has gone from .246 to .239. Not only is this shockingly low, it also makes me wonder: How the H-E-double hockey sticks (I’ll see myself out) did he do so badly last year with a .246 BABIP?
Anywho, he currently has a Recent Batted Ball Luck score of -52. Pitchers who have gotten that lucky and are also poor strikeout guys are once again bad bets.
If these stats haven’t scared you off, please be aware that there is a chance of thunderstorms in D.C. tonight. In fact, there is a severe thunderstorm watch until 9 p.m. ET. A lengthy rain delay could further impede his chances of living up to his new $8,000 price tag.
We are currently projecting him to be owned in 5% to 8% of lineups in DraftKings tournaments, 0% of which will be mine.
