The Cleveland Browns making the switch from McCown to Manziel makes a lot of sense for the team moving forward. 2015 has turned into another lost season and it’s time for them to find out exactly what they have in the former early-round draft pick. But what about the DFS implications — what can we expect to see from the Browns moving forward?
Prior to Week 10, I saw this tweet go out from Tyler Loechner:
A difference of 20 plays per game is enormous, so I wanted to know more. It turns out that Week 10 bumped Manziel up a bit, but the Browns are still running eight more offensive plays per game when McCown is at the helm. Here are the week by week numbers:
|
Week |
QB |
Opponent |
Plays |
Opp Plays |
|
1 |
Manziel |
Jets |
63 |
60 |
|
2 |
Manziel |
Titans |
74 |
47 |
|
3 |
McCown |
Raiders |
62 |
68 |
|
4 |
McCown |
Chargers |
66 |
61 |
|
5 |
McCown |
Ravens |
80 |
67 |
|
6 |
McCown |
Broncos |
81 |
76 |
|
7 |
McCown |
Rams |
65 |
51 |
|
8 |
McCown |
Cardinals |
77 |
61 |
|
9 |
Manziel |
Bengals |
53 |
66 |
|
10 |
Manziel |
Steelers |
65 |
59 |
Next, I wanted to know how the rest of the team’s offensive players performed based on the starting quarterback for that week. Before Manziel retook the reins in Week 9, Duke Johnson was starting to look like he had potential to become “a thing.” Amazingly, the Browns’ 31st ranked rushing offense has done pretty well in terms of Plus/Minus when McCown was the starter:
Make no mistake — this isn’t making the argument that the Browns rushing game is any good when McCown starts, just that running backs have been able to exceed expected value based on their very cheap prices. In the month of October, Crowell/Johnson were legitimately playable:
During Manziel’s starts, the RB duo have posted a combined -0.02 Plus/Minus. Taking their low expectations into account based on sub $4000 pricing on DK, that means they have been very, very bad.
At the WR position, Cleveland receivers have actually added more value with Manziel at QB. Looking at this group of skill players as a whole is probably not that actionable though – I only really care how Travis Benjamin did as the other receivers are pretty far from being on the DFS radar.
Benjamin has posted a solid +2.61 score with McCown, but an astronomical +19.8 with Manziel. Some of this is again due to pricing, but let’s not discount what Benjamin and Manziel have done together. The 19.8 raw DraftKings points Benjamin has averaged per game in Manziel’s starts makes him very playable depending on the situation.
That leads us tight end and Gary Barnidge, the player originally cited in Tyler’s tweet. Barnidge is just a monster when McCown starts. He posted a +14.81 in six games and smashed value every week.
Unfortunately, Barnidge’s number have been drastically different with Manziel. In those four games, Barnidge has averaged just 8.4 points on DraftKings. Now, Manziel was the QB during Weeks 1 & 2, which was prior to Barnidge’s breakout, but his 5.5 point dud in Week 9 is still concerning.
Really only once in 10 games have Barnidge and Benjamin played well in the same game (Week 6 vs Denver). Outside of that, Manziel seems to be better for Benjamin and McCown for Barnidge. The running backs deserve punt consideration with McCown, but should be complete afterthoughts until we see them produce with Manziel leading the way. Overall, the Browns offense pushes the pace significantly more with McCown starting.
