Teams deal with injuries and bad luck every season, but the last two standing always manage to move past all of their turmoil and make it to the Super Bowl. This season was no different, as the Eagles lost potential-league MVP Carson Wentz while the Patriots have been without difference makers Julian Edelman and Dont’a Hightower on both sides of the ball. The 2017 season was undoubtedly a rollercoaster, but are things really that different than they were a decade ago? Let’s break down whether some of the Super Bowl’s largest talking points hold true when it comes to the rest of the league.
Question No. 1: Is the featured running back dead?
The NFL has become a pass-first league over the years, as teams attempted an additional 30.2 passes per season in 2017 compared to 1998. Mike Shanahan and the #LateRoundRB community also hasn’t helped the prevalence of the featured running back. 2008-2017 saw an average of 3.2 running backs rack up 300-plus carries compared to 9.3 backs in 1998-2007. Of course, the Patriots have made a living with their running backs working out of the backfield, as their top-three backs combined to catch 118 passes this season. Lately, more and more teams have seemingly trended towards featuring their running backs as receivers instead of runners:
Having a running back by committee system hasn’t exactly been frowned upon over the years, but studs like Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson, and Ezekiel Elliott still steal most of the spotlight and fantasy folklore. Their gargantuan workloads have become a bit of a black swan in recent seasons – especially when it comes to Super Bowl contenders. Neither the Eagles nor Patriots have a running back with even 200-plus carries this season. Marshawn Lynch and Rashard Mendenhall are the only two running backs to rack up 300-plus carries and a Super Bowl appearance in the same season since 2010, while seven running backs surpassed those thresholds from 1998-2005.
2017’s 14 backs with 50-plus receptions marked a 20-year high as more and more teams have trended towards featuring Alvin Kamara/Christian McCaffrey types that can seamlessly work from the slot or backfield. Still, the five-year average of running backs with 50-plus receptions from 1998-2002 equals the average from 2013-2017. The largest change we’ve seen is an overall decrease in do-it-all three-down backs over the past 20 years:
Injuries and suspensions undoubtedly played a large role in each of the above seasons, but it’s tough to argue with the notion that teams are more willing to spread out their carry and reception distribution during tenuous 16-game regular seasons. The lack of a featured back has hardly prohibited teams from advancing deep into the playoffs, perhaps indicating an abundance of fresh and capable backs is preferable to one three-down stud who 1) may prove more costly on the cap sheet and 2) is incredibly hard to find in the first place. Check out our Trends tool to research the effectiveness of the league’s few remaining workhorses.
Verdict: The RBBC is here to stay.
Question No. 2: Do you need an incredible defense to overcome a liability at quarterback?
The AFC has been quarterbacked by Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, and Joe Flacco (#elite) in each of the past 15 seasons. The same can’t be said for the NFC, as Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers have a combined zero Super Bowl appearances over the past seven seasons. Only four teams have made the Super Bowl in the past 20 years with a defense ranked 25th or lower in DVOA: Brady and Manning quarterbacked three of those squads. Meanwhile top-five defenses have propelled the likes of Trent Dilfer, Rex Grossman, and Brad Johnson to the Super Bowl.
Only 10 teams have made the Super Bowl with a defense ranked outside of the top-16 units in DVOA over the past 20 years. This year’s Patriots squad is Brady’s second-such group, and he’s no stranger to leading a superior offense. Overall, the Patriots offense has had a better DVOA rank than their defense in 15 of Brady’s 16 full seasons as a starter. It’s tough to put the likes of Steve McNair, Flacco, and Eli Manning on Brady and Manning’s level, but each of those aforementioned signal callers were at least quality starters for 10-plus years.
Historically, teams with bottom-tier defenses have made it to the Super Bowl only with the services of either an upper-echelon quarterback or an established signal caller capable of getting hot for three games. Record-breaking statistical quarterbacks aside, only Flacco and Eli have led mediocre defenses to a Super Bowl victory over the past 20 years. It’s safe to say you’ll need more than just a game manager to win the big one without the services of a devastatingly effective defense. Check out our Player Props Dashboard to #FadeFoles if you aren’t convinced by his recent playoff magic.
Verdict: A strong defense – or having the ability to perform miracles – is typically needed to overcome incompetence under center.
Question No. 3: Is parity a myth in the NFL playoffs?
Anything can happen on the gridiron … right? The NBA’s parity problem has been under fire with three straight editions of Cavs-Warriors in the Finals, but the NFL hasn’t exactly proven to be the land of underdogs either. Seven of the last eight No. 1 seeds have made the Super Bowl, while the NFC and AFC have each sent 11 of their past 20 top seeds to the championship.
Per our tools at Bet Labs, we know moneyline favorites have gone 105-58 in the playoffs since 2003. Only six teams have won the Super Bowl as a wild card, and none since the Packers beat the Steelers in 2010. This Sunday’s matchup of each conference’s No. 1 seed is the 13th-such matchup in league history. A 25 percent clip isn’t perfect, but the idea that underdogs routinely make things interesting in the playoffs could be a bit outdated in a similar manner as March Madness. The NFL produces an abundance of bizarre plays and moments that could never be scripted, but we’ve seen continued evidence of the league’s best regular season teams also typically being the league’s best postseason teams. Vegas sportsbooks are pretty good at their jobs.
Verdict: Anything CAN happen in the playoffs, but lately ‘anything’ has been the chalk.
Question No. 4: Is having a featured WR1 overrated?
Both the Eagles and Patriots have plenty of ability at wide receiver, but each team’s respective all-star tight end led the team in receptions and yards. Rather than running their offense through one wide receiver, both teams have managed to build a top-flight receiver with help from each of their three starters:
- Field-stretching speed: Brandin Cooks/Torrey Smith
- Red-zone goodness: Chris Hogan/Alshon Jeffery
- Creating from the slot: Danny Amendola/Nelson Agholor
This isn’t to say a team isn’t capable of including a complete stud in this type of breakdown, with the most-explosive example being Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth, and Wes Welker in 2007. Similar to having a three-down back, having a game-breaking receiver in it of itself doesn’t hurt a team’s Super Bowl chances, but only six first-team All-Pros have made the Super Bowl since 1998, with Julio Jones‘ appearance last season breaking a four-year drought. It’s frankly hard to find and afford players capable of pulling off the unimaginable on a regular basis …
Randy Moss on the Patriots, final answer. pic.twitter.com/lTBRuZFtAs
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 30, 2018
If you use our Lineup Builder to stack Pats pass catchers with quarterback Tom Brady, consider Hogan, Cooks, AND Amendola to essentially recreate the greatest single-season QB/WR connection the league has ever seen.
Verdict: Not having an alpha dog at wide receiver hasn’t prohibited teams from making the Super Bowl, but they sure are fun to have.
TL;DR:
- Workhorse three-down backs like Le’Veon are nearing extinction.
- Teams without an amazing defense have typically needed an amazing quarterback to make the Super Bowl.
- Favorites and higher seeds have largely dominated the NFL playoffs.
- Having a cast of wide receivers instead of one featured guy hasn’t prevented teams from making the Super Bowl.
Good luck this week and be sure to research the Super Bowl with our Tools and Models.
