The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The Asian swing continues in Shanghai, China, with the WGC-HSBC Champions at Sheshan International Golf Club. The 78-man field includes 18 of the top-25 golfers in the Official World Golf Rankings. Speaking of the world rankings, nine of the previous 11 HSBC Champions winners have ranked 30th or better at the time of their victories.
The Course
Sheshan International is a Par 72 course playing at 7,266 yards with Bentgrass greens; it will host the HSBC Champions for the 12th time in 13 editions of the tournament. The course has a ton of water, and the wet stuff lies in wait on more than half the holes around this place.
As always, I backtested all metrics within our PGA Models to find which ones have been valuable at this track. Per the Trends tool, here is how the top-20 percent of golfers in various metrics have done (in Plus/Minus valuation) at Sheshan International. Historically the course has yielded averages of 63.17 points and a +3.61 Plus/Minus with 56.3 percent Consistency to the field. Once again, because of the limited field and no cut, it’s a week that likely lends itself well to an extreme stars-and-scrubs approach.
- Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score): +5.36
- Long-Term Greens In Regulation (GIR): +7.30
- Long-Term Driving (DD): +4.36
- Long-Term Driving Accuracy (DA): +8.49
- Long-Term Scrambling (SC): +4.79
- Long-Term Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament (Adj Bird Avg): +4.22
- Recent Adj Rd Score: +4.22
- Recent GIR: +6.43
- Recent Adjusted Eagles Per Tournament (Adj Eagle Avg): +7.32
- Recent Adj Bird Avg: +5.29
The Studs
A former winner of this event, Dustin Johnson ($11,700) set the course record here with his 24-under-par score on his way to victory in 2013. Johnson’s 67.9 LT Adj Rd Score leads this elite field, and he is tied for second overall with his 15.4 LT Adj Bird Avg. Johnson found some form toward the end of last season, winning the Northern Trust in late August, and he has played extremely well here at Sheshan: His 67.6 Course Adj Rd Score ranks first among golfers with three or more starts at this track.
The defending champion, Hideki Matsuyama ($11,400) blasted this place with four rounds of 68 or better last year on his way to a seven-stroke victory that was one shot off the 72-hole record set by Johnson. It’s worth noting that Matsuyama has withdrawn from this event twice, but he is no stranger to early-season domination: Last year, he ripped off three wins and two runner-up finishes in his first five tournaments. Matsuyama is tied for sixth overall with his 68.5 LT Adj Rd Score and ranks fifth by himself with his 15.3 LT Adj Bird Avg. Hideki finished fifth at the CIMB Classic earlier this month.
It’s likely both DJ and Hideki will be chalky this week; you can check out any DFS player’s exposures to them and much more with our amazing PGA Contests Dashboard.
The Value Plays
Thailand’s Kiradech Aphibarnrat ($7,500) is a player who won’t be chalky — we currently have him projected at five to eight percent ownership in large-field guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) — but should be on your radar. Aphibarnrat has a streak of three straight top-20 finishes, including his second-place finish at the Italian Open in which he accumulated 129.0 DraftKings points. In his last six tournaments (which includes a missed cut), Aphibarnrat has averaged 90.16 DraftKings points per tournament (PPT). He ranks seventh with his 77.7 Recent GIR percentage, ninth with his 18.2 Recent Adj Bird Avg, and tied for sixth with his 1.4 Recent Adj Eagle Avg. Kiradech has improved his finishing position every time out in this event and finished 30th here in 2015.
China’s own Xinjun Zhang ($7,000) will be one of the first players on the course Thursday morning at near-minimum salary. Zhang had four top-10 finishes on the Web.com Tour last season, including two runner-ups. Importantly, Zhang has played in this event previously, and his 69.4 Course Adj Rd Score ranks ninth among golfers with at least three starts here. He finished 21st last year while accumulating 79.0 DraftKings points with a +24.35 Plus/Minus at 0.1 percent ownership.
Bill Haas ($7,300) has also played this event many times and finished fourth here last year; his 69.6 Course Adjusted Round Score ranks 12th among golfers with three or more starts. Haas’ 69.1 LT Adj Rd Score ranks 19th in this group, and his 62.5 LT SC percentage is third overall. Despite his low salary, good course history, and 17th-place finish to kick off his season, Haas hasn’t received a lot of chatter this week; we currently have him projected at less than 10 percent ownership.
The Bump and Run
Choke up and take a narrow stance.
Jason Day ($10,200): Hump is contractually obligated to mention Day every time he plays. Although Day has never played this event, he is an elite Bentgrass putter and finished 11th at last week’s CJ Cup, where his putter seemed to be coming back to life. J-Day is tied for seventh with his 67.9 Recent Adj Rd Score and ranks fifth overall with his 18.7 Recent Adj Bird Avg.
Marc Leishman ($9,900): Absolutely locked in right now, Leishman has a win and two additional top-three finishes in his last four starts. His 67.3 Recent Adj Rd Score ranks second, and his 19.3 Recent Adj Bird Avg is fourth overall. It doesn’t hurt that Leishman has finished 11th and ninth here at Sheshan in his only two trips: His 67.9 Course Adjusted Round Score is fourth in the field.
Tyrrell Hatton ($8,200): Another player locked in, Hatton is on fire right now with victories in his last two starts, during which time he’s averaged 146.0 PPT. Hatton hasn’t finished worse than eighth in his last four starts and leads this field with a redonkulous 24.0 Recent Adj Bird Avg.
