The last two weeks on the PGA TOUR have been fun, but it’s time to get serious. After the Zurich Classic and THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson gave fringe players an opportunity to step up, the big names are back in action this week for the Signature Event at Quail Hollow Club. This is the last chance for players to tune up their games for the PGA Championship, which is just over a week away.
At least most of the big names are back in action. The one huge absence is Scottie Scheffler, who is still awaiting the birth of his first child. Other than him, all eligible players plan to play, giving us a strong field of 70 golfers. Since there is no cut in this signature event, all golfers will play four rounds, barring withdrawal or disqualification. That makes it a great week to swing for the fences since players will get to play four rounds even if they get off to a slow start.
The Quail Hollow Club has hosted this event since 2003 and also hosted the 2017 PGA Championship, won by Justin Thomas. This tournament typically draws an elite field, so top golfers have an extensive course history. The course is known for “The Green Mile,” which is the moniker given to the final three holes of the course that measure literally a mile and play as some of the longest and toughest on the PGA TOUR.
Overall, the course demands long drives and tight approaches. Strokes Gained: Approach and Driving Distance are key metrics to target. Typically the greens are fast and the rough is thick to help players prepare for major championship conditions next week. It’s best to build around players who excel in tough scoring conditions.
In this post each week
The focus of this post is strong GPP options who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain looking for under-owned options.
All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Stroked Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
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Wyndham Clark $10,500
Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele make sense as the two most expensive plays on the board this week, and Rory’s recent win and past success at this venue make him a strong cash game play. Those two players also bring the highest ownership projections in the field, though, so Wyndham Clark makes a better pay-up pivot for GPPs.
Clark won this event last year and has the kind of versatile game built around length that plays especially well at Quail Hollow. He has the fourth-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections on the slate along with the fourth-highest Perfect% and the fourth-most Pro Trends. He only has the seventh-highest ownership projection, though, which gives him the third-highest SimLeverage in the field.
Wyndham comes into his title defense in strong form after exceeding salary-based expectations in seven of his 10 tournaments this season. He won at Pebble Beach in a Signature Event, finished runner-up to Scheffler at Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass in back-to-back weeks, and then finished third at the RBC Heritage in his most recent tournament. He ranks third in this elite field in Total Strokes Gained this season and fifth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
Clark definitely has the skill set to defend his title, and without Scottie, this is a great chance for him to grab his second win of the season.
Tommy Fleetwood $9,500
Could this finally be his week? Fleetwood seems to always be on the leaderboard posting high finishes but has yet to win on the PGA TOUR. The 33-year-old from England has seven career wins on the DP World Tour, with the most recent coming in January at the Dubai Invitational where he beat Rory by one stroke.
Since coming Stateside in February, Fleetwood has played seven tournaments, making the cut six times and posting three top 10s, including a T3 at the Masters just a few weeks ago. He has the length off the tee, accuracy, and the overall style of game that works well at Quail Hollow, and he has had success in his last two appearances, finishing T14 in 2021 and T5 last year.
Fleetwood typically is a good fit for Tom Fazio designs and excels on more difficult layouts. He ranks fifth in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over his last 12 rounds and 11th in Total Strokes Gained. His ownership projection is the third-lowest of the golfers priced over $9,000 since the general public seems to be fatigued waiting for him to break through. This week feels like it could be the week his patience pays off with a big win.
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Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Cameron Young $8,800
Young is another extremely talented golfer still looking for his first career win on the PGA TOUR. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all golfers with salaries under $9,000 and just the fifth-highest ownership projection in that price range. While he does have a negative SimLeverage, so do most golfers near his salary.
In seven of his 10 tournaments in 2024, Young has exceeded salary-based expectations. He posted a runner-up finish at the Valspar and another top 10 at the Masters before struggling at the RBC Heritage. This course should be a better fit for him than Harbour Town, and he should be able to bounce back and contend even in this strong field.
Young ranks fifth in the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee this season and is in the top 10 in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 20 rounds. While he sometimes struggles down the stretch and needs to prove he can finish strong and get a win, his driving and ball-striking are strong enough to make him a good play at this price, especially since so many people are looking at other options in this salary range.
Brian Harman $8,000
Harman can win on tough tracks in elite fields (see last year’s Open Championship), and he has a good history at Quail Hollow. He has the second-highest SimLeverage of all golfers with salaries between $8,000 and $9,000, behind only the struggling Jordan Spieth. Harman has the lowest ownership projection in that price range at under 10%.
He won the Wells Fargo Championship in 2017, but the event was moved to a different course that year to accommodate PGA Championship preparations. Later that year, he finished T13 in that PGA Championship at Quail Hollow and also posted top 25 finishes in 2019 and 2021 at this course before missing the cut last season.
As far as recent form, Harman did miss the cut at the Masters and the Valspar but posted a runner-up finish at THE PLAYERS, and top-25 finishes at the Texas Open and RBC Heritage. His boom-or-bust results work just fine for a GPP lineup, where his high ceiling and solid course history make him a good leverage play this week.
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Value PGA DFS Picks
Will Zalatoris $7,900
Zalatoris has an extremely high ceiling, but there’s one huge unknown– his health. He had to withdraw from THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson last week after his back injury flared up. He’s very affordable as a result of the uncertainty, and if he’s close to 100%, he will end up a great bargain play. The general public is avoiding him for fantasy this week, indicated by his ownership projection of around 10%.
Since returning from a nine-month absence due to back surgery, Zalatoris has climbed into the top 20 of the FedExCup race with top-five finishes at Signature events including The Genesis Invitational (T2) and the Arnold Palmer Invitational (T4). At the Masters, Zalatoris finished in the top 10 before missing the cut at the Zurich Classic while playing alongside Sahith Theegala.
In his last 20 rounds, Zalatoris ranks tenth in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and in the top five in Strokes Gained: Approach. Zalatoris has a higher ceiling, median, and floor projection than all but two of the players priced under $9,000, so getting him for under $8,000 is a huge discount. His low ownership projection also gives him the second-highest SimLeverage of the players priced in the $7,000s.
Akshay Bhatia $7,500
While Bhatia is a little chalkier than I would like, he’s still a great play at this salary. He has the fifth-highest ownership projection of the players under $8,000 but also brings the fourth-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections.
Even though he is only 22, he has already played this event twice in his career, missing the cut in 2021 before making the cut and finishing T43 last year. 2024 has been a great year for Bhatia, who won his second career PGA TOUR victory at the Texas Open in dominant fashion. That win came as part of a great stretch of golf in which he made five straight cuts with four top 20s.
He has been red hot across all the clubs in his bag and leads this entire elite field in Total Strokes Gained over the past 20 rounds. He’s in the top five in Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green during that stretch, and his statistical profile puts him right in the mix this week.
Bhatia has established himself as a rising star, and winning a prestigious tournament like this is the next step in his progression. He brings more spike upside than the other players in this price range, which is why I’m willing to eat some chalk and differentiate in other spots.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
J.T. Poston $7,000
There are 31 players whose salaries are $7,000 or below this week, and Poston stands out as the strongest play of the bunch by a wide margin. Poston could have a much higher salary and still be worth a look. He has the highest ceiling, median, and floor of all players with salaries under $7,500 and ranks only behind Bhatia under $7,800. He also has the second-highest Perfect% of all players under $8,000, so getting him at $7,000 is an amazing deal.
Poston has missed the cut in three of his four tries at Quail Hollow, but he has been playing lights out this season. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his 11 events this season and finished T5 at the RBC Heritage for his fourth top 10 of the season. On the season, he ranks 16th in the field in Total Strokes Gained, and he ranks in the top 15 over his last eight rounds as well.
His lack of course history has him coming in a little under the radar, but he makes a very solid play at only $7,000 and has both a high floor and a very good ceiling.
Matthieu Pavon $6,500
The Frenchman is making his tournament debut this week, but don’t get scared off. He has been excelling on tough courses in his first appearances all season. Pavon has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in the entire field and the second-highest Pts/Sal.
While he hasn’t competed at this course, his game is a very good fit according to his metrics. He ranks in the top 10 in this field in Total Stroked Gained this season and in the top 25 off the tee. He is 15th in Total Driving on the PGA TOUR this season and should be comfortable given how similarly it plays to many European layouts.
Pavon has continued to bounce back and forth between the PGA TOUR and the DP World Tour this season even after breaking through for his first PGA TOUR career victory at Torrey Pines earlier this year. He finished in the top five at the Singapore Classic and followed that with a T12 at the Masters. He was back overseas at the ISPS Handa Championship in Japan for his most recent event.
The 31-year-old is in the middle of a breakthrough season and has continued to stay hot. He isn’t the safest play under $7,000, but he brings enough of a ceiling to be my top option in that price range. If he’s too chalky for you, Justin Rose and Mackenzie Hughes are options around his same salary with lower ownership projections, while Nick Dunlap is much cheaper with punt-play upside.
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