The PGA TOUR is BACK, baby! After two weeks of lesser events, most of the elite players are back this week for an elevated event. The Wells Fargo Championship is also back–back at Quail Hollow Club after relocating last year for a one-year hiatus at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm. Quail Hollow Club was already one of the top stops on the PGA TOUR, and with this event getting elevated status, the top pros are expected to be in attendance.
Max Homa is the defending champ after winning by two strokes over Keegan Bradley, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Cameron Young. Homa’s win was his second at this event after claiming the win in 2019 at Qual Hollow by three strokes. He’ll try to join Rory McIlroy as a three-time winner at this event, but he’ll have to beat Rory, who will be playing for the first time since missing the cut at The Masters.
Jon Rahm will not play after teeing it up last week at the Mexico Open instead. He fell just short of defending his title, finishing runner-up to Tony Finau, who will play this week looking to win in back-to-back weeks for the second time in his career. Akshay Bhatia and Alejandro Tosti are also in the field this week on the strength of their top-10 finishes last week at Vidanta Villarta.
The course hosted last year’s Presidents Cup but is back in the regular rotation. It typically plays very difficult, especially the closing stretch, which has been given the nickname “The Green Mile.” For more on what stats to pay special attention to and what golfers fit the profile, check out Matt Vincenzi’s stats preview.
In this post, we focus on players with lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding these high-leverage plays with low ownership is critical for GPP lineups. I’ll try to highlight ways to go against the grain and take advantage of golfers who many fantasy players may overlook or pass by due to risk factors.
Since these are GPP picks, we also can accept a little more risk if it raises the ceiling of the lineup. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownerships create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that usually lead to large-field success.
This weekly post focuses on players who are strong plays in GPP contests. These contests usually have large numbers of entries and pay out big prizes to the top few percent. The biggest example this week is the DraftKings $800K Pitch and Putt, which pays out $200K to the winner. In large contests like this one, it is critical to try and target players who have a chance to outperform salary expectations and come with low projected ownership.
The players highlighted will be good options if they deliver in all formats, but they come with risk factors that usually keep them from being the safest plays. Safety and reliability should be the focus of lineups in cash and double-up contests, where finishing in the top spot isn’t quite as important. On the other hand, GPPs call for high-risk, high-reward options with high ceilings and low projected ownership. To find specific guidance for all the different kinds of contests, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A couple of key new stats to specifically use for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
Usually, I rely on the Stroked Gained Model, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players that gain shots on approach since week-to-week putting performance can be extremely volatile, even for the best players on the PGA TOUR.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems PrizePicks has to offer with PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 deposit match.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Xander Schauffele $10,700
There are four players priced over $10K in this strong field, with Rory bringing the highest salary along with the highest projected ownership. Rory is the only player who has a higher Perfect% than Cantlay, but since Schauffele is projected for 10% lower ownership, he offers a strong alternative.
Schauffele finished in the top 15 in his most recent trip to this event and comes in with some strong recent momentum after posting a T19 at THE PLAYERS Championship, a T10 at the Masters, and a solo fourth in the RBC Heritage in his most recent individual event. He also finished T4 in his title defense at the Zurich Classic alongside partner Patrick Cantlay, who is one of the other players priced over $10K this week.
According to Vegas, only Cantlay and Rory have a better chance of winning the event this week than Schauffele, who also comes in with the third-best odds to finish in the top 10. He has already racked up seven top 10s this season, but he hasn’t claimed a victory since the Scottish Open last summer.
In our sims, Schauffele shows up in the fifth-most optimal lineups but only has the ninth-highest projected ownership. He typically performs well on difficult courses and has shown he can contend in any field when he’s at his best.
Since Rory and Cantlay are getting most of the attention of the four players over $10K, Schauffele represents a great spot to fade the public and get a top player at lower ownership for GPP contests.
Collin Morikawa $9,800
Like Schauffele, Morikawa has proven he can contend in elite fields and on difficult tracks. Also, like Schauffele, he has been putting together solid results but hasn’t broken through for a win yet this season. It’s surprising that with his strong game, he hasn’t hoisted a trophy since the Open Championship in July of 2021.
He has a good shot to break that streak this week if he can continue his form. He has made the cut in six of seven tournaments since the start of 2023, with top 10s at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, the Farmers Insurance Open, the Genesis Invitational, and the Masters. He followed up his top 10 at Augusta with a made cut and T31 in his first career appearance at the RBC Heritage.
He’ll be making his debut at this event as well, but he has the second-highest SimLeverage in this entire field. He is in 18.1% of optimal lineups in our sims but is only projected for a 13% ownership. He’s barely in the top 12 in projected ownership but ranks as one of the most likely players to win this week and to finish in the top 10, according to our sims and his Vegas odds.
Despite what some might view as a down season, he ranks in the top 10 on the PGA TOUR in fairways hit, GIR%, SG: Approach, and SG: Tee-To-Green. He did look strong on this track during the President’s Cup, and both he and Schauffele have positive vibes to build off of as they look to take on Quail Hollow again this week.
Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Jason Day $9,000
Quail Hollow is known as a track that demands strong play throughout the bag and distance off the tee, so it isn’t surprising that Day has a history of success at this event. He won in 2018 and also had a top 10 in 2012 and at the PGA Championship in 2017. Day’s career trailed off after his win here, but he did follow up his victory with a T24 in his title defense.
After struggling for a while, Day has brought his game back around and comes in with great form this week. He has made the cut in all seven stroke play events he has played in 2023, with six finishes in the top 20 and three in the top 10. He made it to the elite eight at the WGC-Match Play and then posted a T39 at the Masters before taking a month off. The rest should do him well, and if he’s healthy and in form, he could be ready for his return to the winner’s circle this week.
Day and Rickie Fowler come into the week with similar price points and on similar trajectories as they rediscover their previous form. They both also have excellent histories on this track and make strong plays this week. Fowler actually has a little bit lower projected ownership, but Day shows up in almost twice as many optimal lineups in our sims.
As a result, he has a +1.7 SimLeverage, while Fowler’s is at -2.9. Both are definitely GPP plays to consider, but Day brings more upside and a higher ceiling, given how close he has come to getting a win in elite fields like this one.
Sam Burns $8,600
While Rickie could definitely work in this spot, it’s also worth noticing that Burns seems to be coming in very under-owned as well, according to our projections. While Cameron Young costs about the same, he checks in with a 21.1% projected ownership, compared to only 12.4% projected ownership for Burns. While I’m a fan of Young, too, it seems like the public is chasing his first win a little hard this week and overlooking how sharp Burns has been playing lately.
Burns won the WGC-Match Play, showing he can beat the best in the game by outdueling Scottie Scheffler and Young to claim the victory. Since finding his form with a sixth-place finish in his title defense at the Valspar, he added a T29 at the Masters, a T15 at the RBC Heritage, and a T11 at the Zurich to that win in Austin.
One reason the public may be down on Burns is his lack of course history. He did play the Presidents Cup on this track, but other than that, he finished T55 in 2018 and had to withdraw in his only career chances at Quail Hollow.
However, for GPP lineups, we can overlook that lack of a long track record and embrace his high upside and excellent form.
Value PGA DFS Picks
Cameron Davis $7,500
Well, 2023 didn’t start well for Davis, but he seems to be rounding into form after being limited by illness in the early going. After making the cut in Hawaii, he missed five straight cuts before finding his footing and posting a T6 at THE PLAYERS Championship. He added a great finish at Harbour Town three weeks ago, posting a T7 in another elevated event.
That finish at the RBC Heritage is actually even more impressive when you realize that he overcame losing -1.0 SG: Putting on the week. That’s how good his game was tee-to-green. If he can flip the flat stick even a little this week, he could end up contending on Sunday once again.
Before his struggles earlier this season, the 28-year-old Aussie looked like one of the fastest-rising players on the PGA TOUR. He had a run of strong results last summer and looks to be finding his form just in time to return to the events where he showed well. He missed the cut at the Wells Fargo last year, but he did post a T26 in 2021, the last time it was contested on this track. That T26 could have been even better if it hadn’t been for a three-over in the final round that dropped him out of the top 10.
His game fits the track and seems to be trending in the right direction, so it’s surprising to see him projected for only 5.3% ownership this week.
His 2.15% SimLeverage is the fifth-highest of the players priced between $7K and $8K.
Seamus Power $7,100
The highest SimLeverage of the players in the $7K-$8K price bracket belongs to Seamus Power, who is projected for surprisingly low ownership under 4.0%.
Public sentiment against Power may be due to a perceived lack of form since he did miss the cut at THE PLAYERS and the RBC Heritage, but he also made the cut at Augusta National during that stretch. Prior to that, his game was even more on point, as he had played the weekend in nine straight events dating back to his win at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship last fall and top 5s at the World Wide Technology Championship and The RSM Classic. More recently, he also had a top 15 at The Genesis Invitational at Riviera, which is another typically difficult track like Quail Hollow.
Power hasn’t played much recently, but that could mean he’s fresh and ready to roll at Quail Hollow, where he has made the cut in all three appearances, highlighted by a T13 in 2019.
Since he’s being so overlooked, he has a 3.28% SimLeverage, which is the seventh-highest in the whole field. J.T. Poston is another player with the same salary with similar projections, but Power is a little more proven at this course and comes with slightly lower ownership.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Luke List $6,900
List has the third-highest ceiling projection of all players under $7K and the third-highest SimLeverage in this price range as well. He is only projected for under 2% ownership, but he still brings a good ceiling if he can get his putter to cooperate.
He is in the fourth-most optimal lineups of all the players in this price range and matches three Pro Trends.
The 38-year-old typically performs well on longer tracks like this one and has made the cut in four of his six career appearances at Quail Hollow. He finished in the top 10 in 2018 and 2021 in two of his three most recent results on this track.
List comes in under the radar because of his current form. He has missed the cut in five of his six most recent tournaments. In what could be a good sign, he shot a 67 last Friday and only missed the weekend by one stroke.
Hopefully, coming to a course that plays to his strengths and has been good to him in the past leads to him building on that round to put up a better finish this week.
Harry Hall $6,700
In many meaningful ways, Hall is the polar opposite of List. While List does his best work with the driver, Hall has excelled with the flat stick and done his best work on the green. He has been one of the top putters on the PGA TOUR this season and has leveraged that into his first appearance at an elevated event this week.
Hall has made the cut and exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his 10 events this season. He is coming in off a solid top 10 in Mexico, where he finished with a flourish going 68-65 over the weekend. He has three top-15 finishes in his past five events, although those have been at events with much weaker fields than this week’s field.
While List has sketchy form but good history, Hall has no history and good form. This will be his debut at Quail Hollow, but the 25-year-old Englishman comes in with very good momentum for a play this cheap. He could continue his breakout season with another strong showing this week.
Some other bargain plays worth a look if you want to go even cheaper are Dylan Wu ($6,700), Cameron Champ ($6,500), and Carson Young ($6,100).
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
THE CJ CUP in South Carolina Top PGA DFS Picks, Values and Sleepers for Large-Field GPPs on DraftKings
The RSM Classic Top PGA DFS Picks, Values and Sleepers for Large-Field GPPs on DraftKings
PGA DFS: First Look at Pricing for The Masters
Wells Fargo Championship PGA DFS Stats Preview: Course Fits, GPP Picks, and Values
