The TOUR heads back stateside this week for the Wells Fargo Championship, but it will take place further north than its typical spot just outside of Charlotte, NC.
Quail Hollow has the President’s Cup pending in the fall, so this tournament will be hosted by TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm just west of D.C. It’ll be another in the long string of TOUR events hosted by the course, but the first since 2018 when Francesco Molinari won the Quicken Loans National.
Molinari and Kyle Stanley are the two winners of the most recent tournaments on this track, giving us a glimpse of the ball striking necessary to be successful around TPC Potomac.
Both players are well known for their abilities tee-to-green and less so for their putting on it. I’ll be using that to help me with my targets this week as we look to dial in on the top plays of the week for the $20 Pitch + Putt with $250,000 to first place.
If you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Matthew Fitzpatrick $10,000
Two players stick out above the rest in terms of ownership this week as both Rory McIlroy and Corey Conners are projected for mid-to-upper 20% ownership. I haven’t laid everything out yet and may be leaning towards a fade of Rory, but I’ll certainly have Conners, especially in the smaller field and single-entry contests.
Matt Fitzpatrick will be my starting point in many large-field GPPs, though, as he is a perfect course fit with as much upside as the others (yes, I know he hasn’t won in the states…yet) and at around half of the ownership of the other two. My usual play up top is to dodge the chalk as we are often splitting hairs and while that’s not always the case with Rory, he is hit or miss enough for me to play that game a bit this week.
Fitzpatrick is a longer hitter than many give him credit for, but he’s added that length without sacrificing accuracy. He continues to be one of the more consistent ball strikers on TOUR, even as his irons have struggled for him a bit this year. I am taking a shot that he will bounce back this week on a course that should be tailor-made for his game, and will be looking for him to lead the way in many of my builds for the Wells Fargo.
Gary Woodland $9,100
There aren’t many players in better playing form right now than Gary Woodland. He has six top-25 finishes in his last seven tournaments, including three inside of the top 8. I usually worry about Woodland off the tee on courses where he may be forced to hit driver, and that could certainly be the case at TPC Potomac with its seven par 4s of 450 yards and longer.
His accuracy with that club has been a bit of a weak point in his game, but he is coming in off of a week where he gained 4.4 shots off the tee at the Mexico Open. I’ll look for him to carry that form into this event where if he can keep it in the short grass, he will be a contender into the weekend.
Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Paul Casey $8,800
Beware of the injured golfer. At least, that’s what I’m telling myself this week across my next two picks. Paul Casey is projected for far too low of ownership in this field on a track that appears well suited for his game if he is health. That is a big “if,” as he has withdrawn from his last two tournaments dating back to the Match Play in March.
I am willing to take that risk, especially in large-field GPPs, as his ceiling and upside are immense, assuming he is ready to go. I’ll be well overweight of the approximate 7% ownership projections on Casey this week.
Webb Simpson $8,100
Injured golfer part two may be more of a form issue now. We didn’t see Webb Simpson but once in January before The Players in March. He seemed to still be struggling with some neck issues during that stretch, as well as a bit of a swing change. Webb has now played three more events since then and is set to tee it up for the Wells Fargo, though it won’t be on his home course at Quail Hollow.
Simpson, for me, has shown some flashes of getting his game back into form. He’s posted some great rounds followed by some really ugly ones, which can often be a sign that a player at this level is close to breaking through. I’m willing to take that chance more in large-field contests this week as he will be a bit contrarian, especially with the popular Cameron Young right below him in price.
Value PGA DFS Picks
Matthew NeSmith $7,600
This is the range to me that will decide the GPP winners. There is quite a bit of chalk gathering in this range, with seven players projected for 10-20% ownership between $7,500 and $7,900. One of my favorite plays of the week falls on the low end of that ownership range with Matthew NeSmith. He is showing up for me in every metric I am looking for as his accuracy and improving length off the tee, plus top-end iron play, can be perfect for this track.
NeSmith has also been putting up solid finishes with a 3rd at Valspar and a 12th more recently at RBC Heritage. If he can maintain the iron play that saw him gain better than five shots on the field in both of those tournaments, he will be in position for another great week at the Wells Fargo.
Martin Laird $7,100
We are back to ball-striking required, putting optional with Martin Laird. He fits the theme well this week as he is frequently a top player in the ball-striking and tee-to-green metrics, but a balky putter leaves him with lesser finishing positions than his play merits. The price allows us to mostly ignore the putting issues as if he finds it this week, he can pay off this price for us in a big way as a solid cut maker with top-15 upside.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Austin Smotherman $6,800
I think we may see some people jumping off the Smotherman train this week, and I am happy to have it less crowded. He made the weekend last week in Mexico but promptly had the worst round of the day on Saturday and dropped to last in the field.
He would bounce back with a solid 3-under day on Sunday, and I am hoping he can carry that momentum into this week. Smotherman’s long-term metrics fit well for TPC Potomac, and I will continue to ride the young talent, especially here in the bottom tier.
Matt Wallace $6,600
On Friday of last week, we finally saw the old Matt Wallace, even if it was just for a round. His 7-under day propelled him into the mix heading to the weekend at the Mexico Open, but he fell back on Saturday and Sunday. Similar to Webb Simpson above, I am willing to take a shot on the volatility, being a good sign for his potential return to form as we know the long-term talent is there.
He’s at a price where we can certainly take this risk as if we hit it right; his upside could certainly help win us a big GPP.
