The PGA TOUR heads to Potomac, Maryland, to play the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship. Typically, the Wells Fargo Championship is played at Quail Hollow Golf and Country Club, but due to the course hosting this year’s President Cup, TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm will be hosting the event temporarily.
TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms is a par 70 golf course measuring in at 7,139 yards and features bentgrass greens. The course has been used professionally since 1987, starting with the Kemper Open from 1987 to 2002. After that, the course hosted the Booz Allen Classic until 2006. Most recently, TPC Potomac hosted the 2017 and 2018 Quicken Loans National.
The field this week will consist of 156 players, including plenty of superstars who are preparing for the PGA Championship in a few weeks. Some of the notable golfers in the field include Rory McIlroy, Xander, Abraham Ancer, Paul Casey, Corey Conners, Tony Finau, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sergio Garcia, Tyrrell Hatton, Marc Leishman, Louis Oosthuizen, Webb Simpson, and Gary Woodland.
For GPP contests on DraftKings, I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.
And if you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
For large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Approach will most definitely be the most important statistic at TPC Potomac. Throughout the history of the course, the best iron players have consistently come out on top. In 2018, Francesco Molinari won the event and gained 9.8 strokes on approach. In 2017, Kyle Stanley won the event and gained 6.8 strokes on approach.
- High-end target: Russell Henley — $9,300 (1st in Strokes Gained: Approach)
- Mid-range target: Paul Casey— $8,800 (2nd in Strokes Gained: Approach)
- Value target: Luke List— $7,100 (5th in Strokes Gained: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking
While approach is the most important statistic, targeting players who excel both off-the-tee and on approach will be a sound strategy. Both of the players previously mentioned also gained over 4.4 strokes on approach each. A combination of both statistics, with approach being factored in a second time, will allow the right players to rise in the model.
- High-end target: Tony Finau— $10,600 (9th Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking)
- Mid-range target: Cameron Young— $8,100 (1st Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking)
- Value target: Luke List — $7,100 (2nd Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking)
Fairways Gained
I’m going to reference both of the past two winners we’ve seen at TPC Potomac once again here, but there have been countless examples for the past twenty-plus years of accurate drivers reigning supreme at TPC Potomac. In 2018, Molinari hit 17% more fairways than field average. In 2017, Stanley hit 14% more fairways than field average.
- High-end target: Matt Fitzpatrick 10,000 (20th Fairways Gained)
- Mid-range target: Aaron Rai— $7,900 (24th Fairways Gained)
- Value target: Martin Laird— $7,100 (4th Fairways Gained)
Strokes Gained: Total Par 70 and Less Than 7,200 Yards
This statistic will allow us to see the type of golfers who typically thrive on shorter par 70 tracks.
- High-end target: Rory McIlroy— $11,500 (3rd Strokes Gained: Total Par 70 and Less Than 7,200 Yards)
- Mid-range target: Paul Casey— $8,800 (8th Strokes Gained: Total Par 70 and Less Than 7,200 Yards)
- Value target: Lucas Glover— $7,200 (5th Strokes Gained: Total Par 70 and Less Than 7,200 Yards)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
I am including putting this week to allow for golfers who have typically putt well on bentgrass to show up in the model. On shorter courses, the best putters tend to rise to the top.
- High-end target: Rory McIlroy — $11,500 (4th in Strokes Gained: Putting Bentgrass)
- Mid-range target: Troy Merritt— $7,500 (3rd in Strokes Gained: Putting Bentgrass)
- Value target: Beau Hossler — $7,100 (2nd in Strokes Gained: Putting Bentgrass)
