The Primetime Slate Breakdown offers data-driven analysis each week. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL homepage.
Quarterbacks
Carson Wentz: $7,200 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel
Wentz and the Eagles are currently 4.5-point favorites on the road in Big-D against an Ezekiel-less Cowboys team. Dallas has been a decidedly average fantasy defense against quarterbacks this season, allowing, depending on how you look at it, the sixteenth-most or -fewest points per game (PPG) to the QB position on DraftKings (18.1) and FanDuel (17.3). Wentz has been virtually matchup-proof this season, running up averages of 23.29 PPG and a +5.06 Plus/Minus with 66.7 percent Consistency on DraftKings and 23.06 PPG and a +5.62 Plus/Minus with 80.0 percent Consistency on FanDuel. Wentz has scored at least 21 points on both sites in four of his last five games. The Eagles average the most offensive snaps (69) and have the highest implied points total (26) on the Primetime slate.
Matt Ryan: $5,800 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel
Playing as a quarterback in Seattle is typically not a pleasant experience — opposing signal callers have averaged a -1.41 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a -0.86 Plus/Minus on FanDuel since 2015. However, Legion of Boom mainstays Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor are both out and it remains to be seen how this defensive backfield will play sans two critical pieces. Ryan started the season glacially but he has now thrown two touchdowns in three straight games. In 29 road games since 2014, Ryan has averaged 19.23 PPG and a +0.86 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 17.96 PPG with a +0.15 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. Matty Ice is the cheapest quarterback on both sites and is likely to be the lowest-owned among the four.
Running Backs
Tevin Coleman: $5,800 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
Sure, it may seem logical to attack the depleted Seattle secondary through the air, especially considering the Seahawks have allowed the fifth-fewest PPG to running backs on both DraftKings (20.4) and FanDuel (17.5). But never underestimate the propensity of NFL coaches to suck at coaching football. In fact, head coach Dan Quinn has already said that the offense “will lean on” Coleman (if Devonta Freeman is out, and he likely is). Coleman has been a beast in limited touches this season; he turned 20 carries into 83 yards and a touchdown after Freeman went down in last week’s game. Even with Freeman healthy, Coleman ranks second on the Falcons behind only Julio Jones with four touches inside the 10-yard line the past four weeks. Tevin currently has our highest ceiling projection and projected Plus/Minus on both sites.
J.D. McKissic: $3,600 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
The Seahawks running game is a proverbial sh*t-show this season but McKissic is now locked in as the pass-catching back in Seattle with C.J. Prosise injured again. McKissic was Seattle’s only productive back on the field last week, with five carries and five targets. Atlanta has allowed the the fourth-most targets (79) and second-most receptions (60) to running backs this season. McKissic is inexpensive on both sites and could be an intriguing stack play alongside Russell Wilson.
Wide Receivers
Julio Jones: $7,300 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel
Mount Saint Julio is due to erupt at some point this season and what better time than now? Jones has been targeted a delicious 39 times the past four weeks (31.2 percent target share) while leading the Falcons in Air Yards in each of those four games. He is the highest-rated player in the Adam Levitan Model for both sites and Bryan Mears had this to say about Julio in the Week 11 Market Share Report:
Jones has been a disappointment, averaging a -3.94 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 22 percent Consistency over his last 10 games. Still, there are positive signs moving forward: He owns 46.0 percent of the Falcons’ Air Yards over the last four weeks. Touchdown regression will eventually come, and it’s possible they rely on the passing game a bit more with Devonta Freeman likely out for Week 11. The last time Julio traveled to Seattle he put up a 7-139-1 line at just 1.1 percent DraftKings ownership.
Alshon Jeffery: $6,600 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
Among the four teams playing on the Primetime slate, Dallas has easily been the most fantasy-friendly to wide receivers, allowing the seventh-most PPG to the position on DraftKings (37.1) and ninth-most PPG on FanDuel (29.6). Jeffery has led the Eagles in both Air Yards and target share (30.7 percent) the past four games and has scored three touchdowns in the past two games. In a game with shootout potential, Jeffery could smash.
Tight Ends
Jason Witten: $4,000 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
Zach Ertz is back. He’s put up Gronk-like numbers this season, and so his price has climbed into Gronk-like territory as well. If you don’t want to pay all the way up for Ertz, consider his opponent. The Eagles have allowed the seventh-most PPG to tight ends on DraftKings (13.8) and ninth-most on FanDuel (10.8) this season. Witten, meanwhile, was targeted seven times last week and has seen the third-most targets (15.45 percent) on the Cowboys over the past four weeks. One short yardage touchdown to the old fella this week easily pays off his salary.
Good luck this week and be sure to research with our suite of Tools.
