Wide receivers are the backbone of your NFL DFS lineups. It’s a spot where you’ll need massive production if you’re going to take down a GPP, but it’s also a spot where you can save money on occasion. Some of the best values in a given week are likely to be found at the receiver position.
In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Chris Olave ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
The Saints have been a bit of a disaster of late, but they’re going to be in a much better spot this week. They got Olave back in the lineup in Week 8, and now Derek Carr will return to the lineup vs. the Saints. That’s great news for all of the team’s pass catchers, who have had to overcome the play of Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener over the past three games.
That’s not to say that things are perfect for New Orleans. Rashid Shaheed is out for the rest of the year with an injury, and he’s been one of the team’s best big-play threats since the start of last year. He’s taken on a more consistent role this season, racking up a 25% target share through his six outings.
With Shaheed now out of the picture, Olave is going to have to take on a huge role moving forward. He had a 36% target share in his first game without Shaheed, and with Carr back in the lineup, that could lead to some monster performances.
The matchup vs. the Panthers is also elite. They’ve been a disaster defensively this season, ranking 31st in pass defense EPA. The Saints are also 6.5-point road favorites, giving them a healthy 25.5-point implied team total.
Add in Olave’s price tag, and it’s hard to argue he’s not the best overall play at the position. He checks all the boxes.
Tyreek Hill ($7,300 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
Tua Tagovailoa returned to the Dolphins lineup last week, and the offense picked up basically right where they left off. They racked up 27 points and 377 yards in total offense, both of which were their best marks since Week 1.
That said, Hill’s production was pretty mediocre. He had just six catches for 72 yards, and he failed to find the end zone.
The good news is that Hill had a 25% target share in that contest, and that figure could be even higher moving forward. He had a 34% target share in his only other full game with Tagovailoa last season, and he had a 32% target share last season. Hill has been one of the best receivers in fantasy with a healthy Tagovailoa, and there’s no reason not to expect him to return to that level.
That makes him a solid value at just $7,300. It puts him well below most of the highest-priced receivers in Week 9, despite the fact that Hill has the third-highest median projection at the position. Even in a tough matchup vs. the Bills, he’s an outstanding target.
Cedric Tillman ($4,300 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel)
Speaking of tough matchups, Tillman is going to have to deal with the Chargers in Week 9. They’ve had one of the best defenses in football this season, ranking third in pass defense EPA. They’ve also played at a snail’s pace on offense, which is a brutal combination for fantasy purposes. For receivers specifically, they’ve allowed the second-fewest PPR points per game.
So why back Tillman? It’s all about the price tag. With Jameis Winston at quarterback and Amari Cooper in Buffalo, Tillman looks like one of the cheapest WR1s in fantasy. He’s been an absolute monster in his past two games, finishing as WR13 and WR3. He’s had a 24% target share and 35% air yards share over that time frame, and he was up to a 93% route participation in his last game.
Sometimes, the situation simply outweighs the matchup. That’s the case with Tillman this week.
Jake Bobo ($3,400 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel)
If you’re looking for a pure value play at receiver this week, Bobo stands out as the best of the bunch. He’s second at the position in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, trailing only Olave.
The big news here involves DK Metcalf. He suffered a knee injury two weeks ago vs. the Falcons, and he missed last week’s game vs. Bills. He’ll be out of the lineup once again this week vs. the Rams, which opens up a significant number of opportunities for the rest of the pass-catchers.
Bobo moved into a prominent role for the Seahawks in his first game sans Metcalf, posting a season-high 81% route participation. He managed just one target in that contest, but Bobo has had some success in the past. He was an excellent preseason performer, and he had three touchdowns on limited opportunities last year.
This is also a significantly better matchup for the Seahawks. They couldn’t do anything without Metcalf vs. the Bills, but the Rams have been exploitable all year. They’re 27th in pass defense EPA, and this game has one of the higher totals of the week at 48.0.
Try out our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
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Ja’Marr Chase ($8,600 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel)
The Bengals were a bit of a disappointment last week vs. the Eagles, and they’re unfortunately going to be shorthanded once again in Week 9. They’re expected to be without Tee Higgins, and their offense has looked significantly worse in games without Higgins this season.
Still, the Bengals’ loss is Chase’s gain. He posted a 31% target share without Higgins last season, which represents a solid increase from his season average of 24%. Chase has been a touchdown monster all season, but he hasn’t seen the same volume of target that we’ve come to expect. Higgins has actually been the team leader with a 29% target share, so his absence should give Chase a significant bump.
The Bengals’ offense should bounce back this week vs. the Raiders. Their defense isn’t terrible – they’re 15th in pass defense EPA – but the Bengals are listed as seven-point favorites. Their 26.25-point implied team total is one of the top marks on the team.
Drake London ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel)
London continues to provide elite production at a very reasonable price tag. He’s coming off a subpar showing last week, but he’s still posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past seven games. He’s the No. 10 receiver in terms of PPR points per game.
He should be able to bounce back this week vs. the Cowboys. They’ve been a disappointment all year defensively, ranking just 25th in pass defense EPA. They’re also going to be without two of their best defenders once again on Sunday, with Micah Parsons and DaRon Bland still out of the lineup with injuries.
This game also figures to have one of the best environments of the week for fantasy purposes. It leads the slate with a 52-point total, while the spread sits at just three points. It’s a game that should feature plenty of scoring on both sides, which tend to be the best for fantasy scoring.
Ladd McConkey ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel)
The Chargers’ offense has been pretty uninspiring this season, particularly from a passing perspective. Jim Harbaugh loves to run the football, and Justin Herbert had 179 passing yards or fewer in his first four games.
However, they’ve opened things up a bit recently. Herbert has averaged 288.3 passing yards over his past three contests, and he’s thrown three total touchdowns. That’s not exactly elite production, but it’s a big step in the right direction.
McConkey has been the team’s unquestioned top receiver during his rookie season. He’s posted a 24% target share, so he should be one of the biggest beneficiaries of their improved passing production. He put that on display last week with 111 yards and two touchdowns, resulting in a season-high 32.1 DraftKings points. The matchup vs. the Browns isn’t ideal, but he’s underpriced compared to his ceiling, and he’s showing up in the optimal lineup simulations at the fourth-highest frequency among DraftKings receivers.
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CeeDee Lamb ($8,800 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel)
Lamb is coming off a monster performance last week, racking up 17 targets, 13 catches, 146 yards, and two touchdowns. He had a massive 46% target share in that contest, and he’s been at 33% or higher in back-to-back games.
That’s the type of involvement we’ve become accustomed to with Lamb. He wasn’t at that level to start the year – he had a target share of 21% through his first five games – but it appears Lamb is back to being one of the busiest receivers in football.
Lamb is undoubtedly one of the most talented pass-catchers in the league, so if he’s going to continue to post a target share of at least 30%, he has one of the top ceilings in fantasy. His ownership is expected to be reasonable on this slate, but he’s showing up in the optimal lineup sims at the second-highest rate.
A.J. Brown ($8,100 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)
The Eagles have not thrown the ball at a very high rate this season, and Brown has missed multiple games with injuries. However, when Brown has been on the field, he’s been one of the most dominant receivers in the league. He owns a 36% target share and 54% air yards share, both of which are among the best marks in football.
The Eagles’ passing attack could be a bit more productive than usual this week. The Jaguars have been dreadful defensively this year, ranking dead last in pass defense EPA. If Jalen Hurts attempts a few additional passes in this matchup, Brown could be looking at a huge day. He’s grading out as undervalued per SimLabs.
Cooper Kupp ($7,700 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)
The Rams’ offense was back to full strength last week, with both Kupp and Puka Nacua returning to action following extended absences. The team immediately responded with their best performance in weeks, racking up 30 points and 386 yards vs. a tough Vikings defense. The Rams were fourth in EPA per play offensively from Week 10 on last season, so they could be an undervalued unit at the moment.
There’s a chance they’re not at full strength vs. the Seahawks, with Nacua picking up an injury at practice this week. He’s officially questionable, but regardless of his status, Kupp stands out as a strong target. If Nacua is out, Kupp becomes the Rams’ unquestioned top receiver. If he’s in, the Rams’ offense should have plenty of success. It should lead to strong fantasy production either way.
Michael Pittman ($5,800 FanDuel)
Pittman is only available on the FanDuel main slate, which includes the Sunday Night Football matchup between the Vikings and Colts. However, Pittman is one of the best options on that site.
The Colts made the decision to swap from Anthony Richardson to Joe Flacco at quarterback, which should give their receivers a tremendous bump. Pittman has posted a positive Plus/Minus in three games this season, and they just so happen to be the three that Flacco has started. His target numbers weren’t quite as impressive as they were under Richardson, but the targets he did get were significantly more valuable.
Ultimately, Pittman – and the rest of the Colts’ receivers – are still priced like Richardson is playing quarterback. That’s a mistake we should be taking advantage of.
