Our NFL product at FantasyLabs is powered by our Models, which feature projections from Sean Koerner. He’s been FantasyPros’ most accurate in-season ranker in three of the past four seasons, which makes our Models a must-have for the serious DFS player.
One of the best ways to incorporate his projections is by looking at each player’s Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Projected Plus/Minus is a proprietary metric that measures projected points vs. expected points. The higher the number, the better that player is expected to perform relative to his price tag.
If you wind up rostering players who finish the week with a good Plus/Minus, there’s a good chance you’re going to find yourself at the top of the leaderboards.
Here are six players who are popping as values in our NFL Models for Week 8.
Quarterback
Matt Moore ($4,800 on DraftKings) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Patrick Mahomes has yet to be officially ruled out for this contest, but it seems likely that Moore will draw another start. He was solid in his first outing with the Chiefs, racking up 267 yards and two passing TDs vs. a tough Green Bay defense. Overall, his 18.98 DraftKings points resulted in a +4.51 Plus/Minus.
The Chiefs didn’t alter their game plan much in that contest despite the change at QB. They threw the ball on 65.5% of their offensive snaps, which actually represents a slight increase from their season-long mark of 64.4%. The Chiefs still have a bunch of explosive playmakers at TE and WR, so Andy Reid still wants to get the ball in their hands as much as possible.
Moore has a better matchup this week vs. the Minnesota Vikings, who are merely average in terms of Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA. The total on this game currently sits at 48.5, and similarly priced QBs have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.25 with a comparable total at home (per the Trends tool).
Running Back
Jaylen Samuels ($4,000 on DraftKings) vs. Indianapolis Colts
Samuels is expected to be the mega chalk this week. He’s currently projected for greater than 50% ownership on DraftKings, which would make him one of the highest-owned plays we’ve seen all season. It might be tempting to consider fading him, but comparably priced RBs have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.54 on DraftKings when projected for at least 20% ownership. You don’t need to fade all the chalk to win the Milly Maker, and cheap, chalky RBs are typically among the best plays on the slate.
Samuels has the potential to carry a massive workload this week vs. the Colts. Not only is starting RB James Conner not expected to suit up, but backup RB Benny Snell is not expected to play either. Samuels, Conner, and Snell have combined for 186 out of 189 touches out of the Steelers’ backfield this season.
His matchup vs. the Colts is also solid. The rank just 29th in rush defense DVOA this season, and the Steelers are slight favorites at home.
Le’Veon Bell ($7,000 on FanDuel) @ Miami Dolphins
It’s been a struggle for Bell this season, particularly over his past three games. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in each of those contests, and he managed just 5.0 FanDuel points in his last game. The Jets’ offense has been anemic for most of the year, so it’s not all that surprising that Bell is on pace to post a career low in yards per carry and total TDs.
That said, Bell’s matchup vs. the Miami Dolphins shines like a beacon of hope. They rank 31st in rush defense DVOA this season, giving Bell an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.50 on FanDuel. The Jets are also favored despite being on the road, and Bell owns a position-high Bargain Rating of 99% on FanDuel.
Wide Receiver
Mike Williams ($4,600 on DraftKings) vs. Green Bay Packers
Williams has been consistent recently, scoring between 8.7 and 13.4 DraftKings points in each of the past four weeks. That said, his production suggests he’s capable of so much more. He’s averaged 8.75 targets per game over that time frame, including an average of 1.75 targets in the red zone. He hasn’t punched a ball into the end zone all season after scoring 11 TDs last year.
That makes Williams an appealing target at his current salary. He’s not going to kill you if he continues to do what he’s been doing recently, and he obviously has upside for a bigger performance. Historically, WRs with a comparable salary and monthly target count have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.51 and an Upside Rating of 14%.
Marvin Jones ($5,700 on FanDuel) @ Oakland Raiders
This matchup between the Lions and Raiders stands out as one of the best of the week. The 50.5 total is the second-highest mark on the slate, and the spread currently sits at just 2.5 points. Basically, this is expected to be a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair.
Jones stands out as an elite value on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 98%. The Raiders’ secondary has also been shredded by opposing WRs this season, giving Jones an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.4. That’s the top mark at the position.
Jones is expected to see the majority of his snaps vs. Trayvon Mullen, which gives him a big advantage in terms of Pro Football Focus’ grade. Mullen hasn’t played much this season, but he’s allowed six catches and a touchdown on just nine targets.
Tight End
Zach Ertz ($4,700 on DraftKings) vs. Chicago Bears
It has not been a good stretch for Ertz recently. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in each of his past three games on DraftKings, and he received a season-low four targets in his last game. He’s seen only one more target than backup TE Dallas Goedert over the past three weeks, and his total target market share has dropped to just 23.7%. The Eagles could also get DeSean Jackson back this week, which would further increase Ertz’ competition for touches.
Still, it’s hard to write him off at just $4,700. That represents a decrease of -$1,300 over the past month, which is a pretty drastic price reduction. It has historically been smart to invest in TEs with a comparable price decrease, as they’ve posted an average Plus/Minus of +1.84 on DraftKings. If you also factor in a comparable number of targets over the past month, the average Plus/Minus increases to +2.50.
Pictured: Steelers RB Jaylen Samuels (38)
Photo Credit: Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports
