The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for Week 9.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Josh Allen at New York Jets – $8,500 on DraftKings, $9,300 on FanDuel
Josh Allen projects for the highest ceiling on the slate, leading a high-powered offense against the AFC East rival New York Jets. The most expensive quarterback on both sites, Allen, a dynamic playmaker, looks to be tested this week, facing a New York Jets defense ranked eighth in DVOA (per Football Outsiders)
The Bills are a massive 11.5-point road favorite in a matchup with a 46-point total. Given Allen’s dual-threat nature, Buffalo remains one of the more pass-happy teams in the league, using a 61%/39% pass-to-run play-calling ratio (per RotoViz). In what looks to be a dominant season should continue for Allen, despite the tough on-paper matchup, who in a 27-17 win over the Green Bay Packers completed 25 passes for 218 yards and two touchdowns, his lowest of the season.
Looking at the Trends tool, when Allen appears in matchups above a 46-point total, he averages 27.23 DraftKings points, with a +3.65 Plus/Minus and a 60.5% consistency rating. Even with the expensive price tag and lower total, Allen can certainly reach an 85th-percentile outcome both through the air and in his rushing ability.
Top Value: Justin Fields vs. Miami Dolphins – $5,300 on DraftKings, $7,400 on FanDuel
Justin Fields projects as a top-value option on DraftKings, leading a Chicago Bears squad to Miami to square off with the Dolphins, in a matchup with a 45.5-point total.
With a low $5,300 salary on DraftKings, Fields looks to have a prime matchup against a Dolphins defense ranked 25th in DVOA. The second-year quarterback looks to have some help in the passing game, with the Bears acquiring Chase Claypool from the Steelers, and should be a dominant weapon alongside Darnell Mooney, who leads the Bears with a 28% target share. Look for the passing cadence to likely increase, with the Dolphins ranking toward the bottom of the league in pass DVOA (29th), up from a more balanced 52%/48% pass-to-run ratio this season.
Aside from the passing game, Fields also has rushing ability, averaging 5.58 yards per attempt, also facing a defense ranked 16th in overall defense, according to PFF. Should there be an increase in passing volume and rushing upside, Fields immediately jumps to the top of fantasy relevance, given the discounted salary.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Austin Ekeler at Atlant Falcons – $8,800 on DraftKings, $9,400 on FanDuel
It feels like we haven’t heard much from Austin Ekeler this season, but he’s been very consistent. The all-purpose running back projects from the highest ceiling on the slate, facing a weak Atlanta Falcons defense ranked 26th in rushing DVOA.
Priced at $8,800 on DraftKings, Ekeler is averaging 12 carries per game and 4.52 yards per attempt. However, Ekeler seems to have absorbed part of the target share due to the absence of Keenan Allen, seeing 8.7 targets per game and averaging 6.7 yards per reception. In a Week 7 37-23 loss to the Seattle Seahawks, Ekeler rushed for 31 yards on nine carries and one touchdown, also catching 12 passes for 96 yards and one touchdown.
With volume likely to remain for Ekeler, coming off of a bye week, expect the running back to easily reach an 85th-percentile outcome with massive touchdown upside — Ekeler has scored at least one touchdown in four of the Chargers’ first seven games.
Los Angeles is a three-point road favorite against the Falcons and will likely rely on Ekeler to help close the game, signaling additional opportunities for Ekeler.
Top Value: Travis Etienne Jr. vs. Las Vegas Raiders – $6,300 on DraftKings, $7,600 on FanDuel
With running back James Robinson moving on to the New York Jets, second-year back Travis Etienne Jr. looks to have firmly landed in a lead role, also projecting as a top value among running backs this week.
Las Vegas ranks 18th in rush DVOA, which should be a more ideal matchup. In a Week 8 21-17 loss to the Denver Broncos, Etienne saw his workload explode, rushing for 156 yards on 24 carries and also finding the end zone one time. In his first healthy season, Etienne has been a standout, averaging 6.21 yards per attempt. Although Jacksonville skews toward a more pass-friendly offense, using a 61%/39% pass-to-run play calling ratio, look for continued involvement from Etienne, especially with the Jaguars currently a 1.5-point home underdog.
In a close matchup, Etienne is a fantasy-relevant option with an affordable salary and should be a popular option for rosters.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Tyreek Hill at Detroit Lions – $8,500 on DraftKings, $8,700 on FanDuel
Tyreek Hill again projects for the highest ceiling among wide receivers in Week 9 in what looks to be a prime matchup against the Chicago Bears, who rank 18th in pass DVOA. Hill looks to be the preferred first-look for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, responsible for a massive 31% of the Dolphins’ target share, averaging 11.1 targets per game and 13.9 yards per reception. While he has only found the end zone twice, Hill has had 90 more receiving yards in five of his first eight games as a member of the Dolphins. In a 31-27 win over the Detroit Lions, Hill caught 12 passes for 188 yards, averaging 15.7 yards per reception.
With first looks in a pass-heavy Dolphins offense, Hill immediately becomes a candidate to reach an 85th percentile outcome, despite the $8,500 salary on DraftKings, and can even be used as a bring-back with Bears skill players in Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool.
Looking at THE BLITZ, Cooper Kupp again projects for the highest ceiling in a matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Week 9 matchup looks more difficult for Kupp on paper, with the Buccaneers ranking sixth in pass DVOA. The superstar, however, certainly can reach a ceiling outcome as the preferred target for Matthew Stafford, seeing 32% of the target share.
This season, Kupp is averaging 12 targets per game and 10.8 yards per reception. In a Week 8 31-14 loss to the San Francisco 49ers, Kupp caught eight passes for 79 yards and one touchdown and should likely see a similar volume Sunday in a matchup with a very low 42.5-point total.
Aside from the volume, Kupp is the dangerous target in the red zone, seeing 10 red zone targets so far this season, per AddMoreFunds, only behind Allen Robinson.
Top Value: Chris Godwin vs. Los Angeles Rams – $6,200 on DraftKings, $6,700 on FanDuel
Chris Godwin projects as a top-value option this week at wide receiver, facing a Los Angeles Rams defense ranked 19th in pass DVOA.
This season, Robinson is averaging 9.2 targets per game and 10.5 yards per reception and, in what looks to be a more ideal matchup, should see volume from quarterback Tom Brady, especially as a 3-points home favorite. Godwin, who leads the Tampa Bay receiving corps, looks to be the first option for the future Hall of Famer as part of the most pass-heavy team in the league, using a 67%/33% pass-to-run play-calling scheme.
In a Week 8 Thursday night 27-22 loss to the Baltimore Ravens, Godwin was targeted 11 times, catching six passes for 75 yards. Although he has yet to find the endzone, Godwin has been targeted by Brady at least 10 times in four of his first six games this season. The volume alone should make Godwin a fantasy-viable option with a very affordable price tag on both sites.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Zach Ertz vs. Seattle Seahawks – $5,100 on DraftKings, $6,600 on FanDuel
Zach Ertz projects for the highest ceiling among tight ends, facing a Seahawks defense ranked 14th in pass DVOA.
Although Ertz has seen his volume drop due to the return of DeAndre Hopkins, he still has the third-highest target share in the receiving corps, averaging 7.5 targets per game and 8.6 yards per reception. In a 34-26 loss to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 8, Ertz caught four passes or 34 yards and one touchdown
With the passing volume and touchdown upside, consider using Ertz on both sides of stacks for this matchup, especially in a matchup with a high 49.5-point total.
Top Value: Hayden Hurst vs. Carolina Panthers – $3,600 on DraftKings, $5,300 on FanDuel
Hayden Hurts projects as a top value at tight end, given his discounted salary on DraftKings. Averaging 5.4 targets per game and 8.1 yards per reception, Hurst certainly becomes a viable fantasy option in a Joe Burrow-led Bengals offense, which uses a 61%/39% pass-to-run play-calling scheme. Projected for higher ownership, Hurst should also see additional volume with Ja’Marr Chase out of the receiving corps with a hip injury.
In a prime matchup against a Panthers defense ranked 29th in pass DVOA, look to Hurst to open salary for higher-priced skill players and should see volume against a weak defense.
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