The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Jalen Hurts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – $7,800 on DraftKings, $9,300 on FanDuel
This week is a big slate for big-name QBs, with Hurts, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson all on the main slate. Jackson, Jayden Daniels and Jordan Love are all dealing with injuries but still have high ceilings, but I’d rather roll with Hurts based on his matchup against the Jaguars. Hurts has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in Chris Raybon’s projections. He has the second-highest ceiling projection in THE BLITZ projections and the third in Sean Koerner’s projections.
Hurts has picked up his fantasy production in the three weeks since the Eagles’ bye week. He has produced 20+ DraftKings points in each of Philly’s three straight wins. He has been very reliant on rushing scores the last two weeks, with two rushing touchdowns and 22.76 DraftKings points two weeks ago against the Giants, followed by three rushing scores and a slate-leading 35.14 DraftKings points last week against the Bengals.
Although his passing numbers have still been a little uninspiring, he has been getting the job done on the ground and should continue to get plenty of work this week at home against the Jags. Jacksonville has allowed the second-most DraftKings points per game to opposing QBs this season. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for an average of 281 passing yards per game against the Jags with 17 passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown in eight games.
There are several strong options to consider this week as star QBs, but this juicy Jacksonville matchup sets up perfectly for a healthy Hurts.
Top Value: Jameis Winston vs. Los Angeles Chargers – $5,400 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel
Taking over for an injured Deshaun Watson, Winston had a huge game last week vs. the Ravens and will look to lead the Browns to a second straight home win this week against the Chargers. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in Raybon’s DraftKings and the fourth-highest in THE BLITZ projections. His salary has spiked more on FanDuel, but he still brings upside if he can continue his success from last week.
Winston went off for 27.56 DraftKings points on 334 passing yards with three touchdowns against the Ravens. Coach Kevin Stefanski definitely trusts him to air it out after calling on him to throw 41 times vs. Baltimore.
As he did at earlier stops in his career, Winston showed a willingness to take aggressive shots downfield, which can be both his biggest strength and greatest weakness. He showed a strong connection with Cedric Tillman ($4,300) and David Njoku ($5,500) and should rely heavily on them again this week in a tougher matchup against the Chargers.
Even in a less-than-ideal matchup against the slow-paced Chargers, Winston’s upside at this salary makes him a very strong leverage value play since his ownership projection is under 3% for the week.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Alvin Kamara vs. Carolina Panthers – $7,800 on DraftKings, $8,800 on FanDuel
The Saints expect to get Derek Carr back at QB this week, but Kamara is the play I love in this smash spot vs. the Panthers. Kamara has the second-highest ceiling projection of all running backs in the aggregate projections on DraftKings and the highest Pts/Sal since he only has the fourth-highest salary.
The veteran has shown extreme toughness this season, playing through fractured ribs and a broken hand. He has been the most stable part of a struggling offense, averaging 101.5 yards from scrimmage per game with 20.1 touches per game and seven touchdowns in eight games.
Kamara had 22 DraftKings points in Week 1 against the Panthers with 83 rushing yards, a touchdown, and 27 receiving yards on five catches. Since then, opposing RBs have been feasting against Carolina, totaling 15 touchdowns in eight games with an average of 128.5 rushing yards and 29.6 receiving yards per game. Opposing running backs have scored at least one touchdown every week against the Panthers.
Despite his injuries, Kamara will be in his usual workhorse role, especially with Kendre Miller (hamstring) and Jamaal Williams (groin) also missing practice this week. With Carr back and plenty of touches in this favorable spot, look for another big-time flashback game from Kamara.
Top Value: James Conner vs. Chicago Bears – $6,600 on DraftKings, $7,700 on FanDuel
Conner has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all running backs on DraftKings in the evenly-blended aggregate of our three main projection sets used in this post–Sean Koerner’s, Chris Rayon’s, and THE BLITZ projections. He has a 90% Bargain Rating on DraftKings but still brings solid value on FanDuel as well, where he ranks No. 6 in Projected Plus/Minus.
Like Kamara, Conner is a workhorse back who gets plenty of touches in just about every game script. He has had at least 18 carries in five of his last seven games and is averaging 16.1 carries per game on the season. He’s also typically the go-to option near the goal line and has four touchdowns to go with his 69.6 rushing yards per contest.
Conner has been very consistent this season and went off for over 100 rushing yards for over 20 DraftKings points against the Chargers on Monday Night Football in his last home game. Conner’s pass-catching is also underrated, but he has hauled in multiple catches in four consecutive contests. He finished with over 50 receiving yards in that win over the Chargers.
The Bears have given up 100+ rushing yards to opposing RBs in four of their last six games and gave up three RB rushing touchdowns against the Colts earlier this year.
There aren’t any obvious bargain plays at running back this week, but Conner is a great way to get reliable production from an option under $7,000. If you have to go cheaper, Chase Brown and Alexander Mattison are the best bargains available, but their workloads are uncertain.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Tyreek Hill at Buffalo Bills – $7,300 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
Hill welcomed back Tua Tagovailoa last week, but the Dolphins lost 28-27 to Conner’s Cardinals. Hill has the second-highest ceiling projection of all receivers in the aggregate projections on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel. He’s outside the top five in salary at receiver on both sites, though, so he brings great value to go with his ceiling.
Even though he didn’t go off, Hill was much better with Tua back last week. He hauled in 6-of-9 targets for 72 yards and 13.2 DraftKings points, his best total since Week 1. He continues to deal with a foot injury this week in practice, but he looked healthy and fast on the field last Sunday.
With Tua back and the rust hopefully knocked off, the Dolphins need to get a statement win this week in Buffalo. At only 2-5, they need to get moving quickly if they want to make a playoff push, and leaning heavily on their superstar receiver is the best way for them to do that this week in Buffalo.
Hill always brings a high ceiling since any time he touches the ball he can go the distance and break the slate with just a few big plays. Getting him at a discount won’t last much longer if he and Tua start clicking, so take advantage of his salary this week, especially on DraftKings, where he has a 75% Bargain Rating and offers 84% Leverage.
Top Value: Cedric Tillman vs. Los Angeles Chargers – $4,300 on DraftKings, $6,100 on FanDuel
Even after a breakout game, Tillman is extremely affordable on DraftKings at just over $4,000. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all wide receivers in the aggregate projections and the highest Pts/Sal at the position as well. On FanDuel, his salary rose like Winston’s but he still is a very solid play given his increased role.
Tillman’s two-touchdown breakout in Week 8 didn’t come out of nowhere since he took over for the traded Amari Cooper in Week 7. In that game against the Bengals, he caught 8-of-12 targets for 81 yards, but he was even better with Jameis throwing him the rock last week, catching 7-of-9 targets for 99 yards and two touchdowns. His 28.9 DraftKings points against the Ravens were one of the best totals of the week for any receiver, and he was an ultimate DraftKings bargain under $4,000.
Even though the matchup is tougher this week, Tillman should continue to get plenty of targets and chances to produce. The 2023 third-round pick has posted an impressive 81.8% Route Participation, 13.2 aDot, 36.8% AY Share, and 278 air yards over the last two weeks. Stacking him and Winston is a high-risk, high-reward value tandem that I’m back for more of this week, even against a solid Chargers defense.
On FanDuel, Michael Pittman stands out as an elite value now that Joe Flacco is back under center. On both sites, Drake London is projected to be a good pay-up value, while Ray-Ray McCloud and Jakobi Meyers are affordable value alternatives on DraftKings.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Brock Bowers at Cincinnati Bengals – $6,000 on DraftKings, $7,700 on FanDuel
Rookie tight end Brock Bowers has the highest ceiling projection on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the aggregate projections this week. He has gotten tons of attention in the Raiders’ struggling passing game and should have a high ceiling with plenty of volume this week vs. the Bengals.
Bowers caught all five of his targets last week against the Chiefs, finishing with 58 yards. That was actually a down week for him after posting three straight weeks with 70+ yards and at least eight catches in each contest. The return of Meyers gave Gardner Minshew another option to work with, and the veteran spreads the ball around a little more than the injured Aidan O’Connell.
The Chiefs were also able to key in on shutting Bowers down, but the Bengals have not been able to shut down any tight ends they have faced this year. Opposing tight ends have averaged 57.4 receiving yards per week against Cincy and have scored four touchdowns in the last four weeks.
Top Value: Jonnu Smith at Buffalo Bills – $3,500 on DraftKings, $5,400 on FanDuel
Last week, Cade Otton dominated from this value tight end spot, but since the Bucs don’t play until Monday Night Football, we’ll have to find a different value to plug into this spot this week on the main slate. I’ve been in on Smith as a sneaky play the last few weeks, and he has been delivering solid numbers. This week, he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all tight ends under $5,000 in the aggregated projections on DraftKings and the fifth-highest under $6,000 on FanDuel.
Smith was actually one of the most productive Dolphins pass-catchers while Tua was out and posted back-to-back games of 11.1 and 22.6 DraftKings points on the two sides of Miami’s bye week. That monster game came against the Colts when he hauled in all seven of his targets for 96 yards and a touchdown.
With Tua back last week, he was still heavily involved and drew six targets. He only finished with four catches for 20 yards, but the potential for more is definitely there as the Dolphins offense gets back to full speed. Smith is averaging just under 5.0 targets per game despite all the turnover at QB.
Smith and the Dolphins will need to be aggressive this week, as discussed in my Tyreek Hill pick above. Coach Mike McDaniel has come under fire while the team has struggled, so I expect him to scheme up some good stuff for Hill, Smith, and the Miami offense this week. That Dolphins-Bills matchup has the second-highest over/under of the week and offers some nice high-risk, high-reward value options.
