In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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Top NFL DFS Tight End Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are three tight ends near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Zach Ertz
- Tyler Higbee
- Hayden Hurst
We’ll discuss why these are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other tight ends.
Top Model NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Zach Ertz ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel): Arizona Cardinals (-2) vs. Seattle Seahawks (49 total)
The return of DeAndre Hopkins has caused Ertz’s volume to diminish. He averaged 9.4 targets per game in the five games prior to Hopkins’ return but has only seen five and four targets in the two games with Hopkins back. His numbers shrunk across the board, seeing a target on 10% of his routes the past two games, as opposed to 21% and 24% in the two weeks prior.
If this trend continues, it may be difficult for Ertz to hit value. He isn’t very explosive, averaging 8.6 yards per catch and 5.9 yards per target. His upside is dependent on catch volume and touchdowns, so we need the volume to reverse back in his direction. This could just be a two-game sample size, but it could be a sign of things to come.
This matchup could be the perfect spot for Ertz to rebound. Seattle has let six different tight ends eclipse 50 yards. Ertz also had a solid day against Seattle in Week 6, catching seven of 10 targets for 70 yards.
With his role in flux, we wouldn’t go Ertz’s way in cash games. However, there is a reason he leads our Tournament Model, as he has one of the highest upsides of the week at a weak tight end position if he returns to his old workload.
Tyler Higbee ($3,700 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel): Los Angeles Rams (+3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (42.5 total)
Higbee started the year scorching hot but has fallen off as of late. He’s caught three of eight targets for 22 yards in the past two games. He had a different role in these two games also, as he’s no longer running a route on merely every dropback. He got banged up in both games but only ran a route on 60% and 37% of dropbacks in the past two weeks.
If his volume is going to diminish, then his fantasy value is going to plummet. Higbee has an abysmal 3.5-yard average depth of target, as he’s been targeted quickly with the Rams’ offensive line struggling. He’s likely been asked to block more to help the offensive line, which is probably a good real-life adjustment, but it leaves us fantasy players unhappy.
The good news is that Higbee gets a great matchup this week. Tampa Bay ranks in the bottom five in catch rate allowed to tight ends at 76.7% and in the bottom ten in yards per target with 8.1, and touchdown rate at 6.7%.
Higbee is the top tight end in Chris Raybon’s Pro Model while leading the position in Projected Plus/Minus.
Hayden Hurst ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (-7) vs. Carolina Panthers (42.5 total)
Hayden Hurst surprisingly didn’t see much of a role change with Ja’Marr Chase out of the lineup. He saw an 11.8% target share, catching all four of his targets for 42 yards. He’s only averaging 33.5 yards per game and hasn’t posted many ceiling games.
He’s posted double-digit DraftKings points in three games this year, but he gets a good matchup here. Carolina is allowing a 76.1% catch rate and 8.3 yards per target to tight ends, both in the bottom eight of the league. They have allowed the 13th-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing tight ends, but this is likely just due to a lack of volume.
Hurst’s role remaining the same with Chase out was worrisome, but it could’ve just been a flukey game. Cincinnati did fall behind early and never really found their footing. They looked to Joe Mixon a lot out of the backfield, so maybe Hurst will be able to benefit from some dump-offs this week.
Hurst leads our Cash Game Model and Sean Koerner’s Pro Model while also being tied for the lead in Points/Salary.
Other Notable NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Robert Tonyan ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel): Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Detroit Lions (49.5 total)
Robert Tonyan’s role in this offense has stabilized, running a route on 74%, 73%, and 68% of dropbacks in the past few weeks. When he is out there, Rodgers is looking his way. Tonyan has been targeted on 32%, 16%, and 27% of his dropbacks in the past three weeks. We know Tonyan is a solid red zone threat, so in a soft matchup with Detroit, Tonyan could find his way into the end zone multiple times.
Tonyan has scored in three straight games against Detroit, while the Lions are giving up a 10.4% touchdown rate to opposing tight ends, which is the third-worst mark in the league. Tonyan will be fairly high-owned but is a nice piece of game stacks in this potential shootout.
Evan Engram ($3,300 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel): Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (47.5 total)
Evan Engram has carved out a solid role with this Jaguars’ offense, running a route on 83% of dropbacks, seeing a 17% target share, and being targeted on 18% of his routes. He’s been more involved as the season has gone on. After seeing four or fewer targets in three of the first four games, he’s seen at least six in each of the past four games.
The Raiders have given up the tenth most receptions to tight ends and are surrendering a league-high 11.3% touchdown rate. They’ve also given up the third-most DraftKings points per game to tight ends. Engram’s role is increasing, and he gets a great matchup.
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