In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Top NFL DFS Running Back Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are three running backs who rank near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Aaron Jones
- Joe Mixon
- Travis Etienne Jr.
We’ll discuss why these are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other running backs.
Top Model NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Aaron Jones ($7,400 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel): Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Detroit Lions (49.5 total)
The Green Bay Packers offense has left us all unsatisfied this year. The receivers have been shuffling, and the offensive line has been dealing with injuries. There has been one bright spot, however. Aaron Jones has been a great runner for the offense and a solid fantasy producer.
The offense is consistently preaching that they need to get him the ball, and they’ve done just that in the past two weeks. Jones carried the ball eight times in Week 7, but caught nine of 10 targets for 53 yards and two touchdowns. In Week 8 against Buffalo, Jones carried the ball 20 times for 143 yards and caught four of five targets for 14 yards. Green Bay is finally feeding Jones.
There’s no reason to expect this game plan to change, as Jones is one of the most efficient runners in the league. He is second in EPA per carry, third in success rate, and second in rate of runs to gain more yards than expected.
The matchup is a dream, as Detroit is allowing 5.24 yards per carry to opposing backs and over 21 fantasy points per game on the ground to opposing backs. Jones is the top back in our Tournament Model while boasting one of the highest ceiling projections on the week.
Joe Mixon ($6,500 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (-7) vs. Carolina Panthers (42.5 total)
The Bengals had an appetizing matchup on the ground last week, but Mixon was only able to muster 27 yards on eight attempts. Cleveland was up double-digits going into the half, and they took a 25-0 lead halfway through the third. Mixon and the ground game were game-scripted out.
Mixon was still a part of the offense, catching seven of nine targets for 32 yards. His catches aren’t very valuable, as he’s averaging a career-low 6.3 yards per catch. They’ve mostly been dump-offs, but we aren’t going to complain about PPR points. Mixon and the ground game will need to find some efficiency for Mixon to be able to access a ceiling.
The good news? The Bengals have a high team total and are home favorites against a below-average defense. Carolina ranks in the bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed on the ground. We’ve yet to see a ceiling outcome from Mixon, with only one game above 20 DraftKings points. However, he’s only scored three touchdowns on the year, so we should have access to a ceiling if he can find some positive regression in that department.
Mixon is the top back in Chris Raybon’s Pro Model and is second in Projected Plus/Minus.
Travis Etienne Jr. ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel): Jacksonville Jaguars (+2) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (47.5 total)
With James Robinson now a New York Jet, Travis Etienne has taken on a very valuable workload. He’s played on at least 79% of the snaps in both games without Robinson and has handled 38 carries over the two games. He’s kept up his passing game usage, with eight targets in the same span as well.
He’s also boosted his touchdown potential, as he handled 100% of the inside-the-five rushes last week and 100% of the short-down-and-distance snaps. He’s also shown explosiveness, with rushes of 30, 48, 49, and 49 yards in the past four weeks.
The matchup is one to take advantage of, as the Raiders are allowing 145.7 total yards to opposing backs per game. Las Vegas is especially vulnerable against opposing backs through the air, as they’ve given up the second-most receiving fantasy points to opposing backs.
Etienne is the runaway top back in Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary. Despite being the eighth highest-priced back on DraftKings, he has the third-highest ceiling projection.
He’s the well-warranted leader of our Cash Game Model, as well as Sean Koerner’s Pro Model.
Other Notable NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Austin Ekeler ($8,800 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Atlanta Falcons (49.5 total)
The Chargers are going to be down Mike Williams and Keenan Allen this weekend, which may lead to a lot of Austin Ekeler. He’s been fairly inefficient on the ground recently, with 67 yards on 23 carries over the past two games. However, he has caught 22 of 28 targets for 143 yards in that same sample size. Los Angeles is doing whatever they can to get Ekeler the ball. He has a monstrous 134.8 DraftKings points in the past four games.
The Falcons rank in the bottom third of the league in DraftKings points allowed to opposing backs. Ekeler’s usage is so valuable right now that it’s hard to downgrade his outlook unless he was playing against the ’85 Bears.
Josh Jacobs ($7,300 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel): Las Vegas Raiders (-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (47.5 total)
The Josh Jacobs takeover came to a crashing halt, as he managed merely 7.4 DraftKings points on 12 touches last week. This was mostly due to the game script, as the Raiders fell behind early and were shut out 24-0. He still handled 67% of the team’s rush attempts and was leaned on heavily while the game was close. Ameer Abdullah took a bunch of snaps and routes, but this was toward the end when they were airing it out.
We’re not overreacting to a blowout loss, especially in a matchup against the middling Jaguars. We’ll buy into the larger sample size, with Jacobs handling at least 23 touches in Weeks 4, 5, and 7.
Jacobs is a solid “bounce-back” candidate this week.
D’Onta Foreman ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel): Carolina Panthers (+7) at Cincinnati Bengals (42.5 total)
With Chuba Hubbard sidelined last week, D’Onta Foreman took on a massive workload. He handled 26 of 34 backfield touches for 118 yards and three touchdowns. He put up 118 yards as well in Week 7, but this was with Hubbard in the lineup. With Hubbard out again, we’re expecting another workhorse-type day from Foreman.
Carolina is a large underdog, but we know they’re committed to the run. They’ve pulled off two upset victories the past two weeks, and Foreman will likely be leaned on if they’re able to make it three in a row. The Bengals have gotten gashed on the ground ever since losing defensive lineman D.J. Reader. The Bengals are also on a short week after getting pummeled on Monday night football against the Browns.
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