In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Running Back Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two running backs near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- D’Andre Swift
- Jonathan Taylor
We’ll discuss why these two are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other running backs.
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Top Model NFL DFS Running Back Picks
D’Andre Swift ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel): Eagles (-3) vs. Dallas Cowboys (47 total)
D’Andre Swift was pretty inefficient last week after I sang his praises about his production without touchdowns. He needed the touchdown to prove worthy last week, finishing with 14.4 DraftKings points.
The volume is still strong in one of the most potent offenses, handling at least 18 opportunities in every game since Week 2.
This game environment is one to attack. But the matchup is subpar. Dallas ranks in the top eight in yards per carry and yards from scrimmage allowed to opposing backs.
With how well Swift is projecting for us at not too much ownership If you were to run 150 lineups in the new SimLabs tool on FantasyLabs, you’d get heavy exposure to Swift (depending on your settings).
Despite the matchup, this is a strong workload at a cheap salary. Swift leads the position in Points/Salary and is the top back in our Cash Game Model, as well as Chris Raybon and Sean Koerner’s Pro Models.
Jonathan Taylor ($6,400 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel): Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers (44 total)
Jonathan Taylor looked like he was poised for an explosion last week. as he was very close to the 100-yard bonus early in the game, as he had 82 rushing yards after the first quarter. He only saw one carry in the second half, as he finished with 12 carries and one reception for 97 scrimmage yards.
He’s still splitting with Zack Moss, as Taylor saw 60% of the snaps and 13 touches compared to 40% and 12 touches for Moss. The split would usually be worrisome, but with this week’s matchup, I still have interest.
Carolina is facing the highest run rate in the league and is allowing the second-most yards per carry to opposing backs. They’ve also allowed the most touchdowns to opposing backs, giving Taylor a solid chance to find paydirt.
Taylor checks in as the top back in our Tournament Model this weekend.
Other Notable NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Alvin Kamara ($8,100 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel): New Orleans Saints (-8.5) vs. Chicago Bears (41 total)
Alvin Kamara‘s workload was as promised, handling 17 carries and five targets en route to 27 DraftKings points against Indianapolis. He also ran a little poorly, with Taysom Hill stealing two touchdowns on the ground.
The Bears have been stout on the ground against opposing backs, allowing the second-fewest yards per carry. However, they’ve allowed the most receiving fantasy points to opposing backs, where Kamara is more than comfortable. With New Orleans favored by over a touchdown at home, this sets up as a nice spot for Kamara.
Josh Jacobs ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) vs. New York Giants (37.5 total)
Josh Jacobs has seen an elite workload this year, with at least 19 opportunities in six of eight games. Aidan O’Connell being thrust into the starting lineup should bode well for Jacobs, as he caught eight of 11 targets for 81 yards last time O’Connell started.
The Giants have allowed the 12th-most DraftKings points to opposing backs and have limited backs to just 2.58 yards per carry over the past two weeks. Regardless, Jacobs’s workload should be enough to allow him to post a solid fantasy score.
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My Favorite NFL DFS Runningback Leverage Pick(s)
Saquon Barkley ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel): New York Giants (+1.5) at Las Vegas Raiders (37.5 total)
If looking for volume, look no further than Saquon Barkley. Barkley has seen 29, 25, and 41 opportunities over the past three weeks. They absolutely leaned on him last week, seeing 36 carries and five targets.
He hasn’t had the easiest matchups and now gets a soft landing spot against Las Vegas. They’ve allowed the fifth-most yards per carry and third-most scrimmage yards to opposing backs.
This week is also devoid of top-end talent, with very few players having legitimate 40-point upside. It’s been a while, but with his workload and matchup, Barkley is one of those guys. He’s going overlooked in ownership projections, but his massive ceiling makes him my favorite target on the slate.
