Nailing the running back spots is essential for constructing a solid DFS lineup. It’s a bit easier to project than the receivers, where touchdowns and big plays are going to result in weekly variance. The workloads for the top running backs are much more stable, so they’re typically more consistent fantasy producers.
However, that also results in some of the heaviest chalk you’ll see across the industry. How do you handle those players each week?
In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Alvin Kamara ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel)
The Saints’ offense has been a bit of a disaster recently. The team has been without Derek Carr, Chris Olave, and Rashid Shaheed in recent weeks, but they’re going to look significantly better this Sunday. While Shaheed is out for the year, Carr should return to the lineup after Olave returned last week.
That should give them a significant boost. Carr may not be the best quarterback in football, but he’s miles better than Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener. The team has scored 10 points or fewer in back-to-back games, but their proficiency should be significantly better this Sunday.
That’s great news for Kamara, who remains one of the busiest running backs in football. He’s handled 62% of the team’s rushing attempts, and that number has been significantly higher in competitive contests. He handled 93% of the team’s carries in Week 3 and 85% in Week 5, so the team is not afraid to lean on him.
Still, Kamara’s best asset for fantasy purposes is his receiving ability. He has a 23% target share for the year, which is easily the best mark in football among running backs. He’s been targeted on 30% of his routes run, so he’s been a clear focal point of the passing attack. That doesn’t figure to change with Shaheed now out of the picture.
The matchup vs. the Panthers is simply the cherry on top. They’ve been a disaster defensively this season, and they’ve allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs by a wide margin. The Saints are listed as seven-point favorites in this matchup, so it’s an outstanding spot for Kamara to put up a huge number.
James Conner ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
As good as Kamara looks this week, Conner grades out as the best pure value at the position. He leads all running backs in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus.
At one point this season, it seemed like Conner might be destined to finish his season in a different uniform. The Cardinals weren’t expected to have much to play for, and with his contract expiring this offseason, he was a prime trade candidate. However, the Cardinals have exceeded expectations and are currently tied for the top spot in the NFC West at 4-4.
With that in mind, expect Conner to continue to do what he does best: put up some of the most undervalued production in fantasy. Conner has posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of eight games on DraftKings, and he’s capable of putting up points in a variety of ways. He’s one of the only true bell-cow backs in fantasy in this price range, racking up rushing yards, receptions, and touchdowns out of the Cardinals’ backfield.
The Bears are a tough matchup, but they have been a bit more exploitable on the ground than through the air. They’re second in pass defense EPA this season, but they’re merely 17th against the run. That could result in a few additional carries for Conner this week, especially with the Cardinals listed as slight home favorites.
Chuba Hubbard ($6,500 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel)
There hasn’t been much to get excited about with the Panthers this season, and they just traded away top receiver Diontae Johnson. Bryce Young will also remain the team’s starting quarterback in Week 9 despite posting some of the worst numbers in all of football.
Hubbard has been one of the lone bright spots. He’s averaged 5.0 yards per carry, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past seven games. The two outliers were his last two contests, but they came in blowouts against respectable teams.
This week’s matchup vs. the Saints might be another blowout – that’s always on the table for the Panthers – but their offense should be a bit more productive. The Saints have been torn to shreds over the past few weeks. They’ve surrendered at least 26 points in three straight games, and two of those opponents have run for at least 225 yards.
Hubbard has continued to get plenty of work, even in the most negative of game scripts. He has at least 15 carries in five of his past six games, and if he reaches that threshold vs. the Saints, he has a chance at 100+ yards and a score.
Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
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De’Von Achane ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
The Dolphins were unable to pick up a win in Tua Tagovailoa’s return to the lineup, but their offense picked up pretty much right where they left off. They racked up 27 points and 377 yards of total offense, both of which were their best marks since Week 1.
Achane also looked completely revitalized. His explosiveness was back as a runner, turning 10 carries into 97 carries, and he was an integral part of their passing attack. He had eight targets and was targeted on 30% of his routes run, and he finished with six catches, 50 yards, and a touchdown.
The receiving work is the reason to be excited this week vs. the Bills. In Achane’s three games with Tagovailoa this season, he’s been targeted on 27%, 33%, and 30% of his routes run. Those are absolutely elite figures.
Achane should have plenty of opportunities to catch passes once again in Week 9. The Dolphins are underdogs of nearly a full touchdown, so Miami is likely going to have to throw to keep pace.
Bijan Robinson ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
Just like in his rookie season, it’s been an up-and-down year for Robinson. In some ways, he’s been outplayed by backup Tyler Allgeier. Robinson has averaged 4.7 yards per carry compared to 5.2 for Allgeier, and Allgeier has also been slightly better in terms of yards per target.
However, Robinson was a top-10 pick in the NFL Draft, and that matters. He should continue to get fed the football, especially in the two areas that matter most: catching passes and scoring touchdowns. Robinson has five touchdowns to Allgeier’s one, and he’s played on 81% of the long-yardage snaps. Robinson was fed in the passing game last week, racking up a 26% target share vs. the Buccaneers.
Ultimately, if Robinson continues to score touchdowns and catch passes, it doesn’t matter if Allgeier steals a few carries away. He’s scored at least 23.6 DraftKings points in three straight games, and he has the second-highest ceiling projection at the position this week. He’s just the sixth-priciest running back on DraftKings, so that’s a nice combination.
Aaron Jones ($7,500 FanDuel)
Jones is only available on the FanDuel main slate, which includes the Sunday Night Football showdown between the Vikings and Colts. That said, he’s one of the best options at the position on that site. He leads all players at the position in projected Plus/Minus, thanks in part to his 99% Bargain Rating.
Jones has historically been one of the most efficient running backs in football; he just didn’t get a ton of opportunities for the Packers. That’s changed a bit in his first year with the Vikings. He’s retained his outstanding efficiency, averaging 4.8 yards per attempt, but he’s seen a much larger share of the carries. He’s had at least 88% of the carries in back-to-back games, including all of the short-yardage attempts.
After dropping back-to-back games, the Vikings are also in a good spot to get back in the win column. They’re listed as 5.5-point home favorites, and the Colts have allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs.
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Tony Pollard ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)
Not much has changed for the Titans recently, regardless of who has been at quarterback. They’ve been a dumpster fire, ranking in the bottom five in both points and yards per game.
However, the Titans have been without Tyjae Spears recently, and there’s a chance he’s out again this week. He was downgraded to a DNP at Thursday’s practice, so it’s possible he’s out of the lineup once again.
If that happens, Pollard should serve as the team’s unquestioned top option in the backfield. He’s played on at least 80% of the snaps for the Titans in back-to-back weeks, which gives him the potential to be one of the cheapest feature backs on the entire slate.
Derrick Henry ($8,300 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)
It is never a bad idea to play Henry; there are just varying degrees of good. On paper, this is not a particularly good spot for Henry. The Broncos have been an elite defensive team all season, so there might be a bit of hesitation to pay up for the Big Dog.
That said, there’s actually a lot to really like about Henry this week. He’s at home, he’s a massive favorite, and he’s facing a team that has been significantly worse against the run than the pass. Henry has historically posted a Plus/Minus of +6.16 as a favorite of at least a touchdown, and he could approach 25 carries if this game goes as expected.
Henry is currently projected for less than four percent ownership on DraftKings, which SimLabs sees as a mistake.
Kenneth Walker ($7,300 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)
The game between the Seahawks and Rams has the potential to offer plenty of fantasy value on both sides. The total sits at 48.0 – the third-highest of the week – while the spread is just one point.
Walker is coming off one of his worst games of the season, but he’s in an elite bounce-back spot. The Rams are merely 28th in rush defense EPA, and Walker has averaged just under five yards per carry in this matchup for his career. He’s another player that stands out as undervalued in SimLabs.
David Montgomery ($6,500 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel)
The Lions’ run game is an absolute juggernaut. They racked up more than 50 points last week despite Jared Goff throwing for just 85 yards. I would’ve said that was impossible if I didn’t see it with my own eyes.
Jahmyr Gibbs is typically the Lions’ RB that garners the most attention for fantasy, and that’s deserved. He’s the superior pass-catcher and the more explosive player, so he offers more upside.
That said, don’t forget about Montgomery. He’s basically a lock for a touchdown every week – he’s scored in more than 80% of his games with Detroit – and he can occasionally pop off for multiple scores.
