In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Top NFL DFS Quarterback Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are three quarterbacks near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Josh Allen
- Justin Herbert
- Justin Fields
We’ll discuss why these three are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks.
Top Model NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Josh Allen ($8,500 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (-11.5) at New York Jets (46 total)
The Bills are on the main slate, which means Josh Allen is leading some of our Pro Models. That’s just how it works. Allen is far and away the most expensive quarterback on the slate, and for good reason. He’s coming off his worst game of the year, in which he still put up 19.62 DraftKings points. He’s averaging 30.1 per game on the year and has only scored below 30 in two of seven contests.
The matchup actually appears semi-difficult, as the Jets rank eighth in DraftKings points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. New York is fifth in pressure rate and third in rate of quarterback hits per dropback despite blitzing at the third-lowest rate in the league.
The Jets have benefitted from playing some lackluster quarterbacks. Four of their eight games have come against Mac Jones, Skyler Thompson, Mitch Trubisky/Kenny Pickett, and Jacoby Brissett. They’ve also benefitted from playing offenses who are struggling to find their footing, such as the Packers and Broncos. The Bills are definitely not struggling, and their footing is as secure as any.
Allen finished as the QB3 and QB8 the two times he played New York last year. Allen and the Bills are as matchup-proof as it comes, and it’s no different this week.
He is the top quarterback in Sean Koerner’s Pro Model, as well as our Cash Game Model.
Justin Herbert ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Atlanta Falcons (49.5 total)
It’s been an up-and-down year for Herbert, as he’s averaging 19.1 DraftKings points per game. He’s 16th in EPA per dropback but is merely 32nd in yards per pass attempt and 37th in air yards per completed pass. He started the season hot with 50.72 DraftKings points in his first two games. It’s been bumpy since then, with three games below 15 DraftKings points in their last five.
That’s probably why Herbert leads our Tournament Model this week, as we’re looking for players that have a high ceiling and aren’t as mindful of their floor. The passing attempt numbers have been cranked up, with 108 total pass attempts over the past two games. We don’t expect the Chargers to maintain this high pass rate, but it is noteworthy.
The matchup is appetizing, as Atlanta is 30th in pressure rate. This is good news for Herbert and the Chargers, as they’re dealing with a slew of offensive line injuries. The Falcons rank bottom-ten in completion rate allowed, yards per pass attempt, and touchdown rate.
Herbert has had some rough performances, but this is a perfect “get right” spot. He has the second-highest ceiling projection on the week while ranking toward the top in Points/Salary.
Justin Fields ($5,300 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel): Chicago Bears (+4.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (45.5 total)
Justin Fields has been playing…good? He’s scored more DraftKings points in each game since Week 4, averaging 23.27 points per game over his past three. His most impressive performance was last week, posting a season-high 26.04 points against Dallas.
Fields hasn’t utilized his arm much, having thrown for over 200 yards in just one game all season. He has 60+ rushing yards in three straight games and 47+ in six straight. Fields is getting enough rushing production to boost his floor, and his passing production has stabilized in the past few weeks. He seems to have a fairly high floor with a somewhat capped ceiling, but he has a cheap price tag.
This matchup is nothing to be afraid of, as Miami is 28th in yards allowed per pass attempt at 7.7 and are giving up a 4.2% touchdown rate. They just added Bradley Chubb, who may help Miami’s lackluster pass rush. They are 29th in dropbacks with QB hits, and 21st in pressure rate.
The addition of Chase Claypool should help, but this offense as a whole still has a fairly low ceiling. Fields leads the position in Points/Salary, and is second in Projected Plus/Minus.
He is also the top quarterback in Chris Raybon’s Pro Model.
Other Notable NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Aaron Rodgers ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Detroit Lions (49.5 total)
The back-to-back MVP has not looked like himself, with no game above 18 DraftKings points on the season. He’s been consistently mediocre, with between 15.76 and 17.36 DraftKings points in six of eight games on the year. Maybe we’re just holding onto the past, or maybe Rodgers and the Packers are in a funk.
If there’s ever a week to find out, it’s now. The Lions rank dead last in pass rush win rate while allowing league highs in completion rate at 69.3% and yards per pass attempt at 8.4. They’re also 29th in yards per completion at 12.1 and 26th in touchdown rate at 5.2%. If there is ever a time for Rodgers and this passing game to come alive, it’s against the Lions.
Geno Smith ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Seattle Seahawks (+2) at Arizona Cardinals (49.5 total)
Geno surprisingly had one of his worst performances of the year against this same defense a few weeks ago, where they held him to 12.68 DraftKings points. That may be a little misleading, as a handful of Seattle drives had to settle for field goals in the red zone. We were very excited about this matchup a few weeks ago, and there’s no reason it can’t shoot out this week. Arizona has given up six passing touchdowns in the two weeks since this matchup.
Smith has shown a solid floor, finishing with 15+ DraftKings points in six of eight games. His ceiling is also accessible, as he has flashed 30+ point upside and has a bevy of talented weapons at his disposal.
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