The quarterback position is one of the most flexible in NFL DFS. You can go in a variety of different ways. Do you pay up for one of the top studs or try to save some money with a value option? Do you eat the chalk or look for a low-owned option with upside? There’s no 100% one-size-fits-all answer, so each slate and contest type is going to require thought and consideration.
In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Geno Smith ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
Smith is coming off his worst game of the season in Week 8, and unfortunately, he’ll be without his top receiver for the second straight week. DK Metcalf has been ruled out vs. the Rams, who are listed as one-point road favorites in Seattle.
That said, Smith still has plenty of talent at his disposal. Jaxson Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett are a respectable duo at receiver, while Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet can catch passes out of the backfield.
More importantly, the matchup vs. the Rams is elite. They’re merely 27th in pass defense EPA, and this game is expected to feature plenty of scoring. The total currently sits at 48.0 points, which is the third-highest mark on the slate.
Ultimately, Smith stands out as the strongest option if you’re paying down at the position on DraftKings. It’s hard to find QB value this week, and Smith is someone who has provided a pretty safe floor for most of the season.
Jayden Daniels ($7,500 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel)
At the other end of the spectrum, it’s hard to argue against Daniels. He has put together a phenomenal rookie season, leading the Commanders to a 6-2 record and garnering some dark horse MVP consideration. For fantasy purposes, only Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield have averaged more fantasy points per game.
His skill set is perfectly suited for fantasy football. He combines high-efficiency passes with some of the top rushing production at the position. Daniels has averaged 8.67 adjusted yards per attempt with his arm, and he’s racked up 53.0 yards per game on the ground.
Daniels will square off with the Giants in Week 9, and it’s a matchup where he and the Commanders have already had tremendous success. They generated 425 yards of total offense in their first meeting, and the Commanders didn’t have a single punt or turnover. The only issue was that they settled for seven field goals without a single touchdown.
The Commanders’ offense has been significantly more clinical since then, so don’t expect a repeat performance. They should be able to move the ball at will and should capitalize with a handful of scores.
Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
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Daniel Jones ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel)
Speaking of the Giants, Jones is expected to be one of the more popular QB options on the slate. He’s projected for 15% ownership on DraftKings, where he’s dirt cheap at just $5,200. Jones isn’t showing up in the optimal lineup simulations at that clip, but he is the most frequent optimal quarterback in SimLabs.
While the Commanders offense has been an absolute wagon this season, their defense is still pretty vulnerable. They’re 21st in pass defense EPA, and Jones took advantage of them in their first matchup. He racked up 178 yards and two touchdown passes, and he added another 32 yards on the ground. His 18.32 DraftKings points might not jump off the page, but it would be more than enough to pay off his $5,200 price tag.
Most importantly, the Commanders pass rush is not as nearly as potent as the two teams they just faced. Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are two of the best teams in the league at getting after the quarterback, while the Commanders have the ninth-worst pass-rush grade per PFF. If Jones has a bit more time, he can connect with an underrated group of pass-catchers led by Malik Nabers.
Jalen Hurts ($7,800 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel)
Hurts is back to being one of the best quarterbacks in fantasy, and it’s due solely to two words: tush push. Hurts has punched in five rushing touchdowns over the past two weeks, which is an absurd number for a quarterback. He had three rushing scores last week, which propelled him to 35.14 DraftKings points despite attempting just 20 passes. Overall, Hurts has now scored at least 21.86 DraftKings points in three straight games.
In addition to being great at getting shoved into the end zone, Hurts also has a phenomenal matchup this week. The Jaguars have been one of the best possible matchups for quarterbacks. They’re dead last in pass defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the position.
The Eagles are favored by more than a touchdown in this spot, and they have the fifth-highest implied team total of the week. Hurts has historically done some of his best work as a big favorite, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.49 in eight games with a comparable spread (per the Trends tool).
Sam Darnold ($7,500 FanDuel)
Darnold is only available on the FanDuel main slate, but he’s tough to ignore on that site. He’s taking on the Colts on Sunday Night Football in a game that should be fantasy-friendly. The Vikings are implied for 26.0 points, and the Colts are 23rd in pass defense EPA.
From a Sim Labs standpoint, Darnold is showing up in the optimal lineup at the fourth-highest frequency on FanDuel. Only Smith, Jones, and Lamar Jackson are checking in at a higher rate.
Darnold also leads all quarterbacks on FanDuel in projected Plus/Minus, and he’s been one of the most consistent producers at the position all season. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all but one game, and that was a weird London game vs. a tough Jets’ secondary. He might not have the highest ceiling at the position, but he’s a good bet to return value.
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Josh Allen ($7,700 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)
The top ceiling projection at quarterback this week belongs to Allen. That’s not a huge shocker. He was the No. 1 quarterback in fantasy in 2023-24, though his production has declined a bit this season.
A matchup vs. the Dolphins could be just what the doctor ordered. He has beat up on the Dolphins routinely throughout his career. He’s averaged an absurd 29.44 DraftKings points per game in 14 career matchups, good for an average Plus/Minus of +6.64. Those numbers would be even higher if not for him scoring just 9.76 DraftKings points in their first meeting this season.
This game has the second-highest total of the week at 49.5, and as 6.5-point favorites, the Bills’ have a massive 27.75 implied team total. Don’t be surprised if we see the old Allen in this spot.
Dak Prescott ($6,300 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel)
It has been a season to forget for Prescott and the Cowboys. They weren’t exactly blown out by the 49ers last week, though the final margin wasn’t indicative of how badly they were outplayed. It dropped them to just 3-4 on the year and third place in the NFC East.
It’s hard to get excited about their offense at the moment, but maybe they can turn things around vs. the Falcons. Atlanta has played in high-scoring games all season, while the Cowboys are personally 5-2 to the over. This game already has the highest total of the week at 52.0, and it’s possible there could be even more points than expected.
If the Cowboys do move the ball vs. Atlanta, it will almost certainly be through the air. They’ve had the worst rushing attack in football this season, and you can definitely throw the ball on the Falcons (24th in pass defense EPA).
Matthew Stafford ($5,700 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
Stafford isn’t grading out particularly well in our Models, so this is more of a “gut call” than anything else. However, I think people have forgotten just how potent this unit is at full strength. They were fourth in EPA per play from Week 10 on last season, and they just hung 30 on the Vikings last week. Stafford threw for 279 yards and four touchdowns, resulting in a season-high 25.76 DraftKings points.
Unfortunately, Puka Nacua did suffer a knee injury at Thursday’s practice, so the Rams might not be at full strength after all. He’s officially questionable, so make sure to monitor the injury reports before lock.
