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Week 8 NFL Fantasy WR Breakdown: Davante Adams, Mad Season

The Week 8 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Nov. 1, at 1 p.m. ET.

In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically our FantasyLabs Models. While the Models are built for daily contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.

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Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models

There are six wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek), Ryan Hodge and I have constructed.

Here’s where they place within our Week 8 fantasy football rankings (as of Thursday afternoon).

  • Davante Adams: No. 1 (PPR) | No. 1 (Half PPR) | No. 1 (Standard)
  • Tyler Lockett: No. 2 (PPR) | No. 2 (Half PPR) | No. 2 (Standard)
  • Keenan Allen: No. 3 (PPR) | No. 5 (Half PPR) | No. 9 (Standard)
  • Allen Robinson: No. 18 (PPR) | No. 20 (Half PPR) | No. 20 (Standard)
  • Kendrick Bourne: No. 35 (PPR) | No. 35 (Half PPR) | No. 34 (Standard)
  • Josh Reynolds: No. 59 (PPR) | No. 55 (Half PPR) | No. 53 (Standard)

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

Check in throughout the week as I publish the rest of the positional breakdowns.

For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network. For updates, see our FantasyLabs News Feed.

Odds as of Thursday afternoon and via DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus today.

Davante Adams: Green Bay Packers (-6.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings (51.5 Over/Under)

I’ve got so much to say that I feel like Dave Matthews.

And let me tell you something else: If you’re not the kind of reader who’s into corny-at-best and obscure-at-worst ’90s music references, then you’re about to feel dizzy and weakened by the haze — and, yes, that was an obscure ’90s music reference.

Movin’ onward.

Adams is about to inflict a mad season of pain upon the Vikings. Over the past four years, he has utterly owned head coach Mike Zimmer’s secondary.

And Adams amassed most of that production when the Vikings defense was actually good, which it now certainly is not. This year, the Vikings are No. 30 with 32.0 points allowed per game. Only the defenseless Raiders (32.8) and Cowboys (34.7) have been worse.

And the Vikings have been especially bad this year against No. 1 wide receivers, ranking No. 31 with a 38.5% DVOA vs. top pass-game producers (per Football Outsiders).

Overall, opposing wide receiver units are No. 2 against the Vikings with 32.8 fantasy points per game on 86-1,235-12 receiving.

And it gets worse: The Vikings are horrendously thin at cornerback. Let’s ignore the fact that last year’s starters — Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander — all left this offseason via free agency. Let’s focus only on the team’s corners now.

All of the guys who started in Week 1 are injured. Mike Hughes (neck) was forced from Week 6 early, and he’s yet to practice. Holton Hill (foot) hasn’t played since Week 5, and he also hasn’t returned to practice. And on Wednesday of this week, Cameron Dantzler (COVID-19) was placed on the reserve list, so he’s out.

On top of that, top perimeter backup Kris Boyd (hamstring/back) has been out since Week 4. He practiced on a limited basis on Wednesday, but that means nothing: Each week over the past month he has gotten in some limited practices, but each week he has been inactive.

The top corner the Vikings have left is rookie Jeff Gladney, who plays primarily in the slot and has allowed 12.1 yards per target and three touchdowns in his five games as a regular contributor.

Given that Adams has run 75.2% of his routes on the perimeter this year, he probably won’t face Gladney much, but when he does, he should have no problem producing. And the irony is that as bad as Gladney is he’s still the guy the Vikings would probably want on Adams, because the two perimeter corners slated to start are worse.

On one side, the Vikings will go with Harrison Hand, a fifth-round rookie who hadn’t played a defensive snap until last game. Opposite him, the Vikings will go with either Chris Jones, an undrafted third-year veteran the team just claimed this week off waivers from the Lions, or Mark Fields II, an undrafted second-year practice-squad call-up with six defensive snaps in his career (all of which came in Week 1 last year).

I imagine the Vikings will go with Jones over Fields because he has some actual NFL experience, but it doesn’t really matter who starts at corner or where they line up: Adams will end them.

Adams has the best matchup of any wide receiver this week.

And that seems especially unfair, because Adams is the NFL’s best wide receiver.

In the post-Jordy Nelson era, Adams has been exceptional: Since 2018, he has been the NFL’s most reliably productive wide receiver on a per-game basis (including postseason).

  • Fantasy Production: 21.4 PPR points (1st) | 13.9 standard points (2nd)
  • Football Production: 94.8 yards (3rd) | 0.73 touchdowns (2nd) | 7.5 receptions (2nd)

Over the past two-plus seasons, Adams is No. 1 with 11.0 targets per game.

On a per-snap basis, he has been a top-five producer (including postseason, per Pro Football Focus).

  • 2020 (four games): 0.48 PPR points (1st) | 0.32 standard points (1st)
  • 2019 (14 games): 0.34 PPR points (2nd) | 0.21 standard points (5th)
  • 2018 (15 games): 0.34 PPR points (3rd) | 0.23 standard points (4th)

This year he is No. 1 with 3.33 yards per route. Last year, he was No. 2 with 2.61.

Even though Adams played just half of Week 2, leaving the game early with a hamstring injury that sidelined him through the Week 5 bye, Adams is still No. 1 at the position with 20.2 expected fantasy points per game (per RotoViz NFL Player Statistical Summary) and No. 4 with 144.3 air yards and yards after the catch (AirYAC) per game.

AirYAC is a leading indicator of fantasy output. You can find it at RotoViz.

Naturally, he’s No. 1 with a 0.74 WOPR.

WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating) is a stat created by Josh Hermsmeyer. It combines market shares of targets and air yards and is available at AirYards.com.

In his three full games this year, Adams is 33-413-4 receiving on 43 targets.

Buy and trade men’s souls. This week, those men are Vikings.

By the way, given the state of the Vikings cornerback unit and what that should mean for quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the Packers passing game, I’m betting on Green Bay, which so far has gotten 62% of the bets and an outsized 95% of the money on the spread (per our Action Network Odds page).

At home, Rodgers is an A-graded 55-30-3 against the spread (ATS), good for a 25.8% return on investment (ROI, per our Bet Labs database).



You can bet on this game at DraftKings.

Adams is a locked-in every-week top-three WR1 in season-long leagues and a strong pay-up play in DFS, especially in cash games. Adams leads all wide receivers in our Models with his median, ceiling and floor projections.

You can use our FantasyLabs Correlations Tool to research the overlapping production of receivers and passers, and over the past year Adams and Rodgers have a 0.71 correlation. For guaranteed prize pools, use our Lineup Builder to stack Adams with his quarterback.

Adams is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales, SportsGeek, Hodge and Freedman Models for FanDuel.

Tyler Lockett: Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (54 O/U)

Much of the fan focus on the Seahawks passing game this year has been on quarterback Russell Wilson and wide receiver D.K. Metcalf, and that makes sense: Russ is cooking, and Metcalf is eating.

But as Lockett showed last week with his slate-best 15-200-3 receiving performance, he too can put the food away.

Since last season, Lockett has handily outproduced Metcalf.

And even if we focus on this year only, Lockett still outshines the big-bodied second-year breakout.

  • Tyler Lockett (six games): 23.5 PPR, 16.0 STD | 45-542-7, 58 targets | 0.62 WOPR
  • D.K. Metcalf (six games): 17.7 PPR, 13.7 STD | 24-519-5, 44 targets | 0.57 WOPR

As unbelievable as Metcalf has been in 2020, Lockett might still be the superior player.

It’s not as if his production this year has come from nowhere. In 2018-19, he had back-to-back 1,000-yard scrimmage campaign. Over the past two-plus seasons, he’s No. 2 behind only Michael Thomas with a 76.7% catch rate and A.J. Brown with 11.0 yards per target (including playoffs).

Since 2018, Wilson has cooked his tastiest meals when throwing to Lockett, with whom he has hooked up for 12.4 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A, per RotoViz AY/A App).

Dude is elite, and he has a strong matchup against the 49ers, who are catastrophically injured. Last week, the 49ers defense was without the supermajority of its starters and key contributors.

  • Edge rusher: Nick Bosa (knee, IR), Dee Ford (back, IR) and Ziggy Ansah (arm, IR)
  • Defensive tackle: Solomon Thomas (knee, IR)
  • Linebacker: Kwon Alexander (ankle)
  • Cornerback: Richard Sherman (calf, IR) and K’Waun Williams (knee/hip, IR)
  • Safety: Jaquiski Tartt (groin) and Jimmie Ward (quadricep)

That’s nine guys. NINE. And based on the Wednesday practice report, there’s a significant chance that not one of these guys will return to action on Sunday.

With all of these injuries, the cornerback slated to face Lockett in the slot is off-the-street backup Jamar Taylor, who has allowed 10.8 yards per target this year and is on his sixth team in three-plus years.

As it happens, one of Taylor’s former teams is the Seahawks, for whom he played as the primary slot defender in the first of 2019 before being cut.

Some items.

  1. Think about how bad the Seahawks have been in pass defense over the past few years — and now imagine how bad Taylor must be if he was too bad for even the 2019 Seahawks.
  2. Remember that Lockett practiced against Taylor for half a season just last year — and now lock him into your lineups.

From a betting perspective, the Seahawks are intriguing. Off a loss, Wilson is 23-12-4 ATS (26.1% ROI) with a margin of +4.24 points.



You can bet on this game at FanDuel. It’s not hard to imagine the Seahawks going off on the 49ers.

Lockett is a no-doubt top-tier WR1 in season-long leagues and the No. 1 wide receiver in the Koerner and Raybon Models for FanDuel, where he has a position-high +4.75 Projected Plus/Minus.

Keenan Allen: Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) at Denver Broncos (44.5 O/U)

Despite what Allen did in 2017-19 …

  • 2017 (16 games): 102-1,393-6, 159 targets | 2-9-0 rushing
  • 2018 (16 games): 97-1,196-6, 136 targets | 9-75-0 rushing
  • 2019 (16 games): 104-1,199-6, 149 targets | 3-16-0 rushing

… I was low on him entering 2020 because I expected a slow, run-focused offense with quarterback Tyrod Taylor.

And in Week 1, I looked like a genius.

But with first-round rookie Justin Herbert’s sudden insertion into the starting lineup in Week 2, Allen has returned to form.

In his four healthy games with Herbert (he exited Week 5 early with a back injury), Allen has dominated.

  • Week 2 (vs. KC): 16.6 PPR, 9.6 STD | 7-96-0, 10 targets
  • Week 3 (vs. CAR): 30.2 PPR, 17.2 STD | 13-132-1, 19 targets
  • Week 4 (at TB): 14.2 PPR, 6.2 STD | 8-62-0, 11 targets
  • Week 7 (vs. JAX): 22.5 PPR, 12.5 STD | 10-125-0, 13 targets

In this diffuse four-week sample, Allen is easily No. 1 among all wide receivers with a 37% target share and 0.83 WOPR.

In Weeks 1-3, cornerback Bryce Callahan played primarily on the perimeter, but in Week 4 he moved back to the slot, where he has spent almost all of his career, and in his three games since sliding back inside he has faced three of the league’s better slot receivers.

  • Jamison Crowder (Week 4): 17.4 PPR, 10.4 STD | 7-104-0, 10 targets
  • Julian Edelman (Week 6): 4.3 PPR, 2.3 STD | 2-8-0, six targets
  • Tyreek Hill (Week 7): 17.5 PPR, 11.5 STD | 6-55-1, 10 targets

It’s great that Edelman did almost nothing in Callahan’s coverage … but that probably had more to do with the general ineptitude of the Patriots pass offense than with the strength of Callahan’s defense. It’s concerning that Crowder and Hill both had big performances against him.

If Crowder and Hill can go off against Callahan, there’s no reason Allen can’t.

Allen has 10-plus targets in each of his four full games with Herbert, and when he’s hit that threshold throughout his career, he has unsurprisingly outshined (per RotoViz Game Splits App).

Show me the power child.

Allen is a volume-fueled WR1 in season-long leagues and the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales and Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high nine Pro Trends.

Allen Robinson: Chicago Bears (+4) vs. New Orleans Saints (43.5 O/U)

As of writing (Thursday morning), we collectively have Robinson (concussion) ranked as a low-end WR2 because he exited Monday Night Football late in the fourth quarter with a head injury. Given that he’s on a short week, I’m skeptical that Robinson will progress through the league’s protocol in time to play on Sunday.

As a result, I have cautiously ranked him as a WR3 right now while Koerner and Raybon have more enthusiastically projected him in the WR2 range.

One way or another, by the end of the week his ranking will be different. Based on practice reports, either I will adjust him up or Koerner and Raybon will adjust him down.

Robinson did not practice on Wednesday, so, again, I’m skeptical. Because of that, I’m gonna Lana Del Rey my way through the rest of the Robinson analysis and just go through the motions.

Just imagine that whatever you read I’m singing to you in a very disengaged monotonous contralto infused with androgynous sensuality.

Robinson is 36-437-2 receiving on 52 targets over his past five games. The quarterback switch from Mitchell Trubisky to Nick Foles in Week 3 has seemingly reinvigorated him. Although his 4-70-0 stat line from Week 7 might not look like much, it came on only four targets in a game in which he faced Jalen Ramsey’s shadow coverage for most of his routes.

Robinson is in fine form and on pace to replicate his 98-1,147-7 campaign from last year.

If he plays, I’m not at all worried about Robinson’s matchup: The Saints are No. 24 with a 17.2% pass-defense DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers, and cornerback Marshon Lattimore has struggled this year, earning a 48.6 PFF coverage grade and allowing 11.9 yards per target, a 78.3% catch rate and three touchdowns in five games.

Last year in Week 7, Robinson was 10-87-1 receiving on 16 targets against the Saints.

Play a video game.

If cleared, Robinson will be a borderline WR1/2 in season-long leagues. He’s currently the No. 1 wide receiver in the CSURAM88 Model for FanDuel.

Kendrick Bourne: San Francisco 49ers (+2.5) at Seattle Seahawks (54 O/U)

Bourne has three big factors in his favor this week.

First, with No. 1 wide receiver Deebo Samuel (hamstring) out, Bourne should see a significant increase in usage.

Without Samuel in Weeks 1-3, Bourne was No. 1 on the team with 86.6 AirYAC and 54.7 receiving yards per game and No. 2 with an 83% snap rate and 17% target share.

Bourne should be on the field almost every down, and he should get some opportunities to produce.

Second, there’s the matchup: Opposing wide receiver units are No. 1 against the Seahawks with 38.2 fantasy points per game on 132-1,681-10 receiving.

Imagine I’m Matt Damon in Ocean’s Eleven as I say this: The list of guys who have gone off against the Seahawks … well, it’s long.

  • Calvin Ridley (Week 1): 33.9 PPR, 24.9 STD | 9-130-2, 12 targets
  • Julio Jones (Week 1): 24.7 PPR, 15.7 STD | 9-157-0, 12 targets
  • Russell Gage (Week 1): 20.4 PPR, 11.4 STD | 9-114-0, 12 targets
  • Julian Edelman (Week 2): 25.9 PPR, 17.9 STD | 8-179-0, 11 targets
  • N’Keal Harry (Week 2): 15.2 PPR, 7.2 STD | 8-72-0, 12 targets
  • Damiere Byrd (Week 2): 13.2 PPR, 7.2 STD | 6-72-0, nine targets
  • Amari Cooper (Week 3): 17.6 PPR, 8.6 STD | 9-86-0, 12 targets
  • Michael Gallup (Week 3): 25.8 PPR, 19.8 STD | 6-138-1, nine targets
  • CeeDee Lamb (Week 3): 11.6 PPR, 6.6 STD | 5-65-0, six targets
  • Cedrick Wilson (Week 3): 27.7 PPR, 22.7 STD | 5-107-2, seven targets
  • DeVante Parker (Week 4): 21.0 PPR, 11.0 STD | 10-110-0, 12 targets
  • Adam Thielen (Week 5): 29.3 PPR, 20.3 STD | 9-80-2, 13 targets | 1-3-0 rushing
  • DeAndre Kirk (Week 7): 24.3 PPR, 14.3 STD | 10-103-1, 12 targets
  • Christian Kirk (Week 7): 20.7 PPR, 15.7 STD | 5-37-2, eight targets
  • Larry Fitzgerald (Week 7): 14.2 PPR, 6.2 STD | 8-62-0, eight targets

The Seahawks are so bad that last week they made relevant the animated remnants of Larry Fitzgerald.

The Seahawks have the league’s most receiver-friendly flow-chart defense, with an NFL-high 11 fantasy WR1/2 performances allowed in just six games.

Long gone is the Legion of Boom.

Third, the Seahawks secondary is injured. Safety Jamal Adams (groin) exited Week 3 early and hasn’t played or returned to practice since. Perimeter cornerback Shaquill Griffin (concussion/hamstring) left Sunday Night Football early and is dealing with multiple injuries. He sat out Wednesday practice and seems unlikely to play this weekend. And slot corner Marquise Blair (knee, IR) is out for the year.

Bourne did nothing against the Seahawks in Week 17 last year when Samuel and Emmanuel Sanders were dominating wide receiver targets, but in Week 10 he was 4-42-1 receiving on eight targets with a 2-point conversion.

Bourne is a streamable low-end WR3 in season-long leagues and the No. 1 wide receiver in the SportsGeek and Hodge Models for DraftKings.

Josh Reynolds: Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Miami Dolphins (46 O/U)

In Weeks 1-2, Josh Reynolds out-snapped rookie Van Jefferson, but the team made a concerted effort to funnel opportunities to the new shiny second-rounder, and those came at the expense of the veteran.

  • Josh Reynolds (Weeks 1-2): 79 snaps | 3-50-0, three targets | 50 AirYAC
  • Van Jefferson (Weeks 1-2): 59 snaps | 5-76-0, eight targets | 109 AirYAC

Since then, however, Reynolds has relegated Jefferson to a distant backup.

  • Josh Reynolds (Weeks 3-7): 244 snaps | 15-228-2, 26 targets | 446 AirYAC
  • Van Jefferson (Weeks 3-7): 35 snaps | 2-22-0, four targets | 67 AirYAC

Since Week 3, Reynolds is No. 2 on the team with 89.2 AirYAC and No. 3 with 45.6 yards and 5.2 targets per game. He hasn’t just overtaken Jefferson. He has also overtaken tight end Tyler Higbee.

Right now, Reynolds is the true No. 3 receiving option on the Rams.

The Dolphins aren’t as bad as they were last year, but perimeter receivers who aren’t No. 1 options have still had moderate success — or at least gotten opportunities.

  • N’Keal Harry (Week 1): 6.9 PPR, 1.9 STD | 5-39-0, six targets (lost fumble)
  • John Brown (Week 2): 18.2 PPR, 14.2 STD | 4-82-1, six targets
  • Chris Conley (Week 3): 6.4 PPR, 3.4 STD | 3-34-0, eight targets
  • David Moore (Week 4): 18.5 PPR, 15.5 STD | 3-95-1, four targets
  • Brandon Aiyuk (Week 5): 7.4 PPR, 4.4 STD | 3-44-0, six targets
  • Breshad Perriman (Week 6): 10.2 PPR, 6.2 STD | 4-62-0, eight targets

Reynolds is 6-97-2 receiving on 13 targets over the past couple weeks with his two best games of the season. With his recent form, if he gets 6-8 targets against the Dolphins, he could put up some fantasy points.

For a bye-week waiver-wire desperation play, you could do a lot worse in season-long leagues.

In DFS, Reynolds is the No. 1 wide receiver in the CSURAM88, Koerner and Raybon Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high +4.85 Projected Plus/Minus.

Wide Receivers With Week-Winning Upside

In this section, I highlight some wide receivers I think will outperform expectations and whom I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.

D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (54 O/U): The 49ers might be without NINE starters and key contributors on defense (see Lockett, Tyler), and Metcalf was 12-151-1 receiving on 22 targets in two games against the 49ers last year. In 2020, Metcalf is No. 3 with 145 AirYAC per game, No. 6 with 11.8 yards per target and, most importantly, No. 1 in my unofficial grown-ass man metric.

Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings (+6.5) at Green Bay Packers (51.5 O/U): A shadow matchup awaits with cornerback Jaire Alexander (90.6 PFF coverage grade, No. 1), but Thielen has dominated in their matchups.

Thielen is No. 3 in the league with a 0.72 WOPR.

A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans (-5.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (53.5 O/U): Since returning in Week 5 from a knee injury, Brown is 18-293-4 receiving on 24 targets in three games with three fantasy WR1 performances (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).

In quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s 16 regular-season starts with the team, over is 13-2-1 (66.9% ROI). You can bet on this game at William Hill.



With No. 1 cornerback William Jackson (concussion) possibly out, Brown is slated for a delicious matchup against backup and former teammate LeShaun Sims, who this year has allowed 9.9 yards per target overall and three touchdowns in his four games as a starter with the Bengals.

Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs (-19.5) vs. New York Jets (49 O/U): The Chiefs have a slate-high 34.25-point implied Vegas total. The Jets rank No. 28 with a 21.8% pass-defense DVOA. In his 35 full games with quarterback Patrick Mahomes, Hill has averaged 87.4 scrimmage yards and 0.80 all-purpose touchdowns per game.

Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) vs. Tennessee Titans (53.5 O/U): No. 1 cornerback Adoree’ Jackson (knee, IR) and slot starter Kristian Fulton (knee) are out for the Titans, so Boyd is slated to match up with seventh-round rookie backup Chris Jackson (29.9 PFF coverage grade), who has allowed 16-149-2 receiving on 21 targets in four games of action. Boyd is pacing toward his third consecutive 1,000-yard season with a team-high 21% target share.

Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions (+3) vs. Indianapolis Colts (50 O/U): Under offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, Golladay has exhibited notable (albeit small-sampled) splits with quarterback Matthew Stafford.

The Colts are No. 4 with a -14.9% pass-defense DVOA, but Golladay has either 100 yards or a touchdown in his four games this year.

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) at Miami Dolphins (46 O/U): X-ray mind reads a tasty matchup against undrafted second-yard backup-turned-starter Nik Needham (41.5 PFF coverage grade), who has allowed 10.0 yards per target this year. As disappointing as Kupp’s 37-417-2 receiving line might be, he is still No. 1 on the team with a 24% target share and 86.6 AirYAC per game.

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings (+6.5) at Green Bay Packers (51.5 O/U): The Packers have been without No. 2 cornerback Kevin King (quadriceps) since halfway through Week 4, and he’s yet to practice, so while teammate Adam Thielen draws the shadow coverage of No. 1 corner Jaire Alexander, Jefferson is likely to match up with backup Josh Jackson, who has allowed a 68.6% catch rate for his career. Since moving from the slot to the perimeter in Week 3, Jefferson is 23-467-3 receiving on 30 targets with a 2-point conversion and has surpassed Thielen in AirYAC (570 vs. 477).

Jamison Crowder, New York Jets (+19.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (49 O/U): In each of his four games this year Crowder has 10-plus targets, and since joining the Jets, he has had notable splits with real quarterbacks (in other words, without someone like Luke Falk).

Crowder (groin) missed last week and is yet to practice this week, so monitor his status as we head into the weekend.

Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers (+2.5) at Seattle Seahawks (54 O/U): The Seahawks are highly exploitable via the passing game (see Bourne, Kendrick). No. 1 wide receiver Deebo Samuel (hamstring) is out, and Aiyuk is 15-224-0 receiving on 23 targets and 4-69-2 rushing in his four games without a fully active Samuel.

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) vs. Tennessee Titans (53.5 O/U): Since his Week 3 breakout, Higgins is 24-375-3 receiving on 37 targets with a team-high 126.8 AirYAC per game.

Only most of that is a lie.

Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers (+4) at Baltimore Ravens (46.5 O/U): With just one target and literally -2 yards receiving last week, Claypool massively underwhelmed, but No. 1 wide receiver Diontae Johnson (back) is uncertain to play (he missed Wednesday practice), and Claypool is 12-208-3 receiving and 5-13-2 rushing in his three mostly Johnson-less games. As underdogs on the moneyline, the Steelers under HC Mike Tomlin are an A-graded 29-26 (32.4% ROI).



Perimeter cornerbacks Marcus Peters and Jimmy Smith present a tough matchup, but Claypool has D.K. Metcalf-esque abilities.

T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Detroit Lions (50 O/U): This is it for Hilton. It’s now or never. No. 1 cornerback Desmond Trufant (hamstring) last played in Week 4 and is yet to practice. As an injury fill-in, Jeffrey Okudah has allowed 24-350-0 receiving on 35 targets and limited action. He’s dead-last among starting corners with a 30.1 PFF coverage grade.

A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) vs. Tennessee Titans (53.5 O/U): Three Bengals receivers? In this economy? For the season, Green still has a team-high 117.7 AirYAC per game. Of all the wide receivers on the main slate, Green ranks the highest in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Week 8 Air Yards Buy-Low Model.

Editor’s Note: This article was written before Julian Edelman was ruled out of Week 8.

Julian Edelman, New England Patriots (+4) at Buffalo Bills (42.5 O/U): I know, I know. Just let me get through this. The Bills have fairly consistently been exploited by starter-caliber slot receivers.

  • Jamison Crowder (Week 1): 24.5 PPR, 17.5 STD | 7-115-1, 13 targets
  • Isaiah Ford (Week 2): 14.6 PPR, 7.6 STD | 7-76-0, nine targets
  • Cooper Kupp (Week 3): 25.7 PPR, 16.7 STD | 9-107-1, 10 targets
  • Hunter Renfrow (Week 4): 10.7 PPR, 5.7 STD | 5-57-0, eight targets
  • Adam Humphries (Week 5): Out (COVID-19)
  • Tyreek Hill (Week 6): 5.5 PPR, 2.5 STD | 3-20-0, three targets | 1-5-0 rushing (fart noise)
  • Jamison Crowder (Week 7): Out (groin)

Edelman still leads the team with a 23% target share and 0.57 WOPR.

Marvin Jones Jr., Detroit Lions (+3) vs. Indianapolis Colts (50 O/U): Last week’s 5-80-0 receiving performance on six targets was a true “Daddy ain’t dead” statement. In the Kenny Golladay era (since 2018), Jones has been a fantasy WR1 in 18% of his games.

Jones is on the positive side of his Golladay-era splits with 16.4 DraftKings and 14.3 FanDuel points per game as a home underdog (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).

Rashard Higgins, Cleveland Browns (-2.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (51 O/U): No. 1 wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (knee, IR) exited last week early, and in his absence Higgins was 6-110-0 receiving on six targets. In his seven games with four-plus targets with quarterback Baker Mayfield, Higgins has done well.

The Raiders are No. 31 with a 36.5 PFF coverage grade.

K.J. Hamler, Denver Broncos (+3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (44.5 O/U): Top perimeter receiver Tim Patrick (concussion) exited Week 7 early and hasn’t returned to practice. An upside speedster, Hamler was No. 2 on the team with 168 AirYAC and No. 3 with 12 targets in his healthy Weeks 2-3 stretch.

Braxton Berrios, New York Jets (+19.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (49 O/U): No. 1 receiver Jamison Crowder (groin) missed last week and is uncertain to play. In Berrios’ three Crowder-less games this year, he has done well as an injury fill-in in the slot.

Monitor Crowder’s status as Sunday approaches.

Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears (+4) vs. New Orleans Saints (43.5 O/U): No. 1 wide receiver Allen Robinson (concussion) is uncertain for Week 8, which puts the rookie speedster in line to lead the team in receiving. Over the past month, Mooney actually leads Robinson in AirYAC (467 vs. 443).

Marquez Callaway, New Orleans Saints (-4) at Chicago Bears (43.5 O/U): Nos. 1-2 wide receivers Michael Thomas (hamstring/ankle) and Emmanuel Sanders (COVID-19) missed Week 7, and in their absence Callaway went off for 8-75-0 receiving on 10 targets. Callaway (ankle) exited the game early and missed practice on Wednesday, so he’s not a lock to play, but if active he could once again have heavy volume.

Deonte Harris, New Orleans Saints (-4) at Chicago Bears (43.5 O/U): If Michael Thomas (hamstring/ankle), Emmanuel Sanders (COVID-19) and Marquez Callaway (ankle) are all out …

Denzel Mims, New York Jets (+19.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (49 O/U): Slot receiver Jamison Crowder (groin) missed last week, and perimeter receiver Breshad Perriman (concussion) left the game early with a head injury. If they sit out Week 8, Mims seems likely to lead the team in receiving. In his Week 7 NFL debut, Mims was 4-42-0 receiving on seven targets with a nice team-high 69 AirYAC.

Demarcus Robinson, Kansas City Chiefs (-19.5) vs. New York Jets (49 O/U): Someone has to catch a touchdown pass from quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

David Moore, Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (54 O/U): Again, the 49ers might be without NINE starters and key contributors on defense (see Lockett, Tyler; see Metcalf, D.K.). Over the past two-plus years, Moore has been a fantasy WR1 in 11% of his games.

Moore has been highly efficient in his career with 9.4 yards per target.

Marcus Johnson, Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Detroit Lions (50 O/U): There’s a non-zero chance I’ll look in the mirror next week and tell myself that Johnson is the No. 1 wide receiver for the Colts.



Matthew Freedman is 702-562-27 (55.5%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

The Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, Freedman is commonly called the Oracle & the Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: Davante Adams
Photo credit: Stacy Revere/Getty Images

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The Week 8 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Nov. 1, at 1 p.m. ET.

In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically our FantasyLabs Models. While the Models are built for daily contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.

New NFL DFS Trial Offer: Try our new football subscription for $4.95 and get access to our industry-leading tools and projections.

Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models

There are six wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek), Ryan Hodge and I have constructed.

Here’s where they place within our Week 8 fantasy football rankings (as of Thursday afternoon).

  • Davante Adams: No. 1 (PPR) | No. 1 (Half PPR) | No. 1 (Standard)
  • Tyler Lockett: No. 2 (PPR) | No. 2 (Half PPR) | No. 2 (Standard)
  • Keenan Allen: No. 3 (PPR) | No. 5 (Half PPR) | No. 9 (Standard)
  • Allen Robinson: No. 18 (PPR) | No. 20 (Half PPR) | No. 20 (Standard)
  • Kendrick Bourne: No. 35 (PPR) | No. 35 (Half PPR) | No. 34 (Standard)
  • Josh Reynolds: No. 59 (PPR) | No. 55 (Half PPR) | No. 53 (Standard)

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

Check in throughout the week as I publish the rest of the positional breakdowns.

For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network. For updates, see our FantasyLabs News Feed.

Odds as of Thursday afternoon and via DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus today.

Davante Adams: Green Bay Packers (-6.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings (51.5 Over/Under)

I’ve got so much to say that I feel like Dave Matthews.

And let me tell you something else: If you’re not the kind of reader who’s into corny-at-best and obscure-at-worst ’90s music references, then you’re about to feel dizzy and weakened by the haze — and, yes, that was an obscure ’90s music reference.

Movin’ onward.

Adams is about to inflict a mad season of pain upon the Vikings. Over the past four years, he has utterly owned head coach Mike Zimmer’s secondary.

And Adams amassed most of that production when the Vikings defense was actually good, which it now certainly is not. This year, the Vikings are No. 30 with 32.0 points allowed per game. Only the defenseless Raiders (32.8) and Cowboys (34.7) have been worse.

And the Vikings have been especially bad this year against No. 1 wide receivers, ranking No. 31 with a 38.5% DVOA vs. top pass-game producers (per Football Outsiders).

Overall, opposing wide receiver units are No. 2 against the Vikings with 32.8 fantasy points per game on 86-1,235-12 receiving.

And it gets worse: The Vikings are horrendously thin at cornerback. Let’s ignore the fact that last year’s starters — Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander — all left this offseason via free agency. Let’s focus only on the team’s corners now.

All of the guys who started in Week 1 are injured. Mike Hughes (neck) was forced from Week 6 early, and he’s yet to practice. Holton Hill (foot) hasn’t played since Week 5, and he also hasn’t returned to practice. And on Wednesday of this week, Cameron Dantzler (COVID-19) was placed on the reserve list, so he’s out.

On top of that, top perimeter backup Kris Boyd (hamstring/back) has been out since Week 4. He practiced on a limited basis on Wednesday, but that means nothing: Each week over the past month he has gotten in some limited practices, but each week he has been inactive.

The top corner the Vikings have left is rookie Jeff Gladney, who plays primarily in the slot and has allowed 12.1 yards per target and three touchdowns in his five games as a regular contributor.

Given that Adams has run 75.2% of his routes on the perimeter this year, he probably won’t face Gladney much, but when he does, he should have no problem producing. And the irony is that as bad as Gladney is he’s still the guy the Vikings would probably want on Adams, because the two perimeter corners slated to start are worse.

On one side, the Vikings will go with Harrison Hand, a fifth-round rookie who hadn’t played a defensive snap until last game. Opposite him, the Vikings will go with either Chris Jones, an undrafted third-year veteran the team just claimed this week off waivers from the Lions, or Mark Fields II, an undrafted second-year practice-squad call-up with six defensive snaps in his career (all of which came in Week 1 last year).

I imagine the Vikings will go with Jones over Fields because he has some actual NFL experience, but it doesn’t really matter who starts at corner or where they line up: Adams will end them.

Adams has the best matchup of any wide receiver this week.

And that seems especially unfair, because Adams is the NFL’s best wide receiver.

In the post-Jordy Nelson era, Adams has been exceptional: Since 2018, he has been the NFL’s most reliably productive wide receiver on a per-game basis (including postseason).

  • Fantasy Production: 21.4 PPR points (1st) | 13.9 standard points (2nd)
  • Football Production: 94.8 yards (3rd) | 0.73 touchdowns (2nd) | 7.5 receptions (2nd)

Over the past two-plus seasons, Adams is No. 1 with 11.0 targets per game.

On a per-snap basis, he has been a top-five producer (including postseason, per Pro Football Focus).

  • 2020 (four games): 0.48 PPR points (1st) | 0.32 standard points (1st)
  • 2019 (14 games): 0.34 PPR points (2nd) | 0.21 standard points (5th)
  • 2018 (15 games): 0.34 PPR points (3rd) | 0.23 standard points (4th)

This year he is No. 1 with 3.33 yards per route. Last year, he was No. 2 with 2.61.

Even though Adams played just half of Week 2, leaving the game early with a hamstring injury that sidelined him through the Week 5 bye, Adams is still No. 1 at the position with 20.2 expected fantasy points per game (per RotoViz NFL Player Statistical Summary) and No. 4 with 144.3 air yards and yards after the catch (AirYAC) per game.

AirYAC is a leading indicator of fantasy output. You can find it at RotoViz.

Naturally, he’s No. 1 with a 0.74 WOPR.

WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating) is a stat created by Josh Hermsmeyer. It combines market shares of targets and air yards and is available at AirYards.com.

In his three full games this year, Adams is 33-413-4 receiving on 43 targets.

Buy and trade men’s souls. This week, those men are Vikings.

By the way, given the state of the Vikings cornerback unit and what that should mean for quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the Packers passing game, I’m betting on Green Bay, which so far has gotten 62% of the bets and an outsized 95% of the money on the spread (per our Action Network Odds page).

At home, Rodgers is an A-graded 55-30-3 against the spread (ATS), good for a 25.8% return on investment (ROI, per our Bet Labs database).



You can bet on this game at DraftKings.

Adams is a locked-in every-week top-three WR1 in season-long leagues and a strong pay-up play in DFS, especially in cash games. Adams leads all wide receivers in our Models with his median, ceiling and floor projections.

You can use our FantasyLabs Correlations Tool to research the overlapping production of receivers and passers, and over the past year Adams and Rodgers have a 0.71 correlation. For guaranteed prize pools, use our Lineup Builder to stack Adams with his quarterback.

Adams is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales, SportsGeek, Hodge and Freedman Models for FanDuel.

Tyler Lockett: Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (54 O/U)

Much of the fan focus on the Seahawks passing game this year has been on quarterback Russell Wilson and wide receiver D.K. Metcalf, and that makes sense: Russ is cooking, and Metcalf is eating.

But as Lockett showed last week with his slate-best 15-200-3 receiving performance, he too can put the food away.

Since last season, Lockett has handily outproduced Metcalf.

And even if we focus on this year only, Lockett still outshines the big-bodied second-year breakout.

  • Tyler Lockett (six games): 23.5 PPR, 16.0 STD | 45-542-7, 58 targets | 0.62 WOPR
  • D.K. Metcalf (six games): 17.7 PPR, 13.7 STD | 24-519-5, 44 targets | 0.57 WOPR

As unbelievable as Metcalf has been in 2020, Lockett might still be the superior player.

It’s not as if his production this year has come from nowhere. In 2018-19, he had back-to-back 1,000-yard scrimmage campaign. Over the past two-plus seasons, he’s No. 2 behind only Michael Thomas with a 76.7% catch rate and A.J. Brown with 11.0 yards per target (including playoffs).

Since 2018, Wilson has cooked his tastiest meals when throwing to Lockett, with whom he has hooked up for 12.4 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A, per RotoViz AY/A App).

Dude is elite, and he has a strong matchup against the 49ers, who are catastrophically injured. Last week, the 49ers defense was without the supermajority of its starters and key contributors.

  • Edge rusher: Nick Bosa (knee, IR), Dee Ford (back, IR) and Ziggy Ansah (arm, IR)
  • Defensive tackle: Solomon Thomas (knee, IR)
  • Linebacker: Kwon Alexander (ankle)
  • Cornerback: Richard Sherman (calf, IR) and K’Waun Williams (knee/hip, IR)
  • Safety: Jaquiski Tartt (groin) and Jimmie Ward (quadricep)

That’s nine guys. NINE. And based on the Wednesday practice report, there’s a significant chance that not one of these guys will return to action on Sunday.

With all of these injuries, the cornerback slated to face Lockett in the slot is off-the-street backup Jamar Taylor, who has allowed 10.8 yards per target this year and is on his sixth team in three-plus years.

As it happens, one of Taylor’s former teams is the Seahawks, for whom he played as the primary slot defender in the first of 2019 before being cut.

Some items.

  1. Think about how bad the Seahawks have been in pass defense over the past few years — and now imagine how bad Taylor must be if he was too bad for even the 2019 Seahawks.
  2. Remember that Lockett practiced against Taylor for half a season just last year — and now lock him into your lineups.

From a betting perspective, the Seahawks are intriguing. Off a loss, Wilson is 23-12-4 ATS (26.1% ROI) with a margin of +4.24 points.



You can bet on this game at FanDuel. It’s not hard to imagine the Seahawks going off on the 49ers.

Lockett is a no-doubt top-tier WR1 in season-long leagues and the No. 1 wide receiver in the Koerner and Raybon Models for FanDuel, where he has a position-high +4.75 Projected Plus/Minus.

Keenan Allen: Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) at Denver Broncos (44.5 O/U)

Despite what Allen did in 2017-19 …

  • 2017 (16 games): 102-1,393-6, 159 targets | 2-9-0 rushing
  • 2018 (16 games): 97-1,196-6, 136 targets | 9-75-0 rushing
  • 2019 (16 games): 104-1,199-6, 149 targets | 3-16-0 rushing

… I was low on him entering 2020 because I expected a slow, run-focused offense with quarterback Tyrod Taylor.

And in Week 1, I looked like a genius.

But with first-round rookie Justin Herbert’s sudden insertion into the starting lineup in Week 2, Allen has returned to form.

In his four healthy games with Herbert (he exited Week 5 early with a back injury), Allen has dominated.

  • Week 2 (vs. KC): 16.6 PPR, 9.6 STD | 7-96-0, 10 targets
  • Week 3 (vs. CAR): 30.2 PPR, 17.2 STD | 13-132-1, 19 targets
  • Week 4 (at TB): 14.2 PPR, 6.2 STD | 8-62-0, 11 targets
  • Week 7 (vs. JAX): 22.5 PPR, 12.5 STD | 10-125-0, 13 targets

In this diffuse four-week sample, Allen is easily No. 1 among all wide receivers with a 37% target share and 0.83 WOPR.

In Weeks 1-3, cornerback Bryce Callahan played primarily on the perimeter, but in Week 4 he moved back to the slot, where he has spent almost all of his career, and in his three games since sliding back inside he has faced three of the league’s better slot receivers.

  • Jamison Crowder (Week 4): 17.4 PPR, 10.4 STD | 7-104-0, 10 targets
  • Julian Edelman (Week 6): 4.3 PPR, 2.3 STD | 2-8-0, six targets
  • Tyreek Hill (Week 7): 17.5 PPR, 11.5 STD | 6-55-1, 10 targets

It’s great that Edelman did almost nothing in Callahan’s coverage … but that probably had more to do with the general ineptitude of the Patriots pass offense than with the strength of Callahan’s defense. It’s concerning that Crowder and Hill both had big performances against him.

If Crowder and Hill can go off against Callahan, there’s no reason Allen can’t.

Allen has 10-plus targets in each of his four full games with Herbert, and when he’s hit that threshold throughout his career, he has unsurprisingly outshined (per RotoViz Game Splits App).

Show me the power child.

Allen is a volume-fueled WR1 in season-long leagues and the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales and Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high nine Pro Trends.

Allen Robinson: Chicago Bears (+4) vs. New Orleans Saints (43.5 O/U)

As of writing (Thursday morning), we collectively have Robinson (concussion) ranked as a low-end WR2 because he exited Monday Night Football late in the fourth quarter with a head injury. Given that he’s on a short week, I’m skeptical that Robinson will progress through the league’s protocol in time to play on Sunday.

As a result, I have cautiously ranked him as a WR3 right now while Koerner and Raybon have more enthusiastically projected him in the WR2 range.

One way or another, by the end of the week his ranking will be different. Based on practice reports, either I will adjust him up or Koerner and Raybon will adjust him down.

Robinson did not practice on Wednesday, so, again, I’m skeptical. Because of that, I’m gonna Lana Del Rey my way through the rest of the Robinson analysis and just go through the motions.

Just imagine that whatever you read I’m singing to you in a very disengaged monotonous contralto infused with androgynous sensuality.

Robinson is 36-437-2 receiving on 52 targets over his past five games. The quarterback switch from Mitchell Trubisky to Nick Foles in Week 3 has seemingly reinvigorated him. Although his 4-70-0 stat line from Week 7 might not look like much, it came on only four targets in a game in which he faced Jalen Ramsey’s shadow coverage for most of his routes.

Robinson is in fine form and on pace to replicate his 98-1,147-7 campaign from last year.

If he plays, I’m not at all worried about Robinson’s matchup: The Saints are No. 24 with a 17.2% pass-defense DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers, and cornerback Marshon Lattimore has struggled this year, earning a 48.6 PFF coverage grade and allowing 11.9 yards per target, a 78.3% catch rate and three touchdowns in five games.

Last year in Week 7, Robinson was 10-87-1 receiving on 16 targets against the Saints.

Play a video game.

If cleared, Robinson will be a borderline WR1/2 in season-long leagues. He’s currently the No. 1 wide receiver in the CSURAM88 Model for FanDuel.

Kendrick Bourne: San Francisco 49ers (+2.5) at Seattle Seahawks (54 O/U)

Bourne has three big factors in his favor this week.

First, with No. 1 wide receiver Deebo Samuel (hamstring) out, Bourne should see a significant increase in usage.

Without Samuel in Weeks 1-3, Bourne was No. 1 on the team with 86.6 AirYAC and 54.7 receiving yards per game and No. 2 with an 83% snap rate and 17% target share.

Bourne should be on the field almost every down, and he should get some opportunities to produce.

Second, there’s the matchup: Opposing wide receiver units are No. 1 against the Seahawks with 38.2 fantasy points per game on 132-1,681-10 receiving.

Imagine I’m Matt Damon in Ocean’s Eleven as I say this: The list of guys who have gone off against the Seahawks … well, it’s long.

  • Calvin Ridley (Week 1): 33.9 PPR, 24.9 STD | 9-130-2, 12 targets
  • Julio Jones (Week 1): 24.7 PPR, 15.7 STD | 9-157-0, 12 targets
  • Russell Gage (Week 1): 20.4 PPR, 11.4 STD | 9-114-0, 12 targets
  • Julian Edelman (Week 2): 25.9 PPR, 17.9 STD | 8-179-0, 11 targets
  • N’Keal Harry (Week 2): 15.2 PPR, 7.2 STD | 8-72-0, 12 targets
  • Damiere Byrd (Week 2): 13.2 PPR, 7.2 STD | 6-72-0, nine targets
  • Amari Cooper (Week 3): 17.6 PPR, 8.6 STD | 9-86-0, 12 targets
  • Michael Gallup (Week 3): 25.8 PPR, 19.8 STD | 6-138-1, nine targets
  • CeeDee Lamb (Week 3): 11.6 PPR, 6.6 STD | 5-65-0, six targets
  • Cedrick Wilson (Week 3): 27.7 PPR, 22.7 STD | 5-107-2, seven targets
  • DeVante Parker (Week 4): 21.0 PPR, 11.0 STD | 10-110-0, 12 targets
  • Adam Thielen (Week 5): 29.3 PPR, 20.3 STD | 9-80-2, 13 targets | 1-3-0 rushing
  • DeAndre Kirk (Week 7): 24.3 PPR, 14.3 STD | 10-103-1, 12 targets
  • Christian Kirk (Week 7): 20.7 PPR, 15.7 STD | 5-37-2, eight targets
  • Larry Fitzgerald (Week 7): 14.2 PPR, 6.2 STD | 8-62-0, eight targets

The Seahawks are so bad that last week they made relevant the animated remnants of Larry Fitzgerald.

The Seahawks have the league’s most receiver-friendly flow-chart defense, with an NFL-high 11 fantasy WR1/2 performances allowed in just six games.

Long gone is the Legion of Boom.

Third, the Seahawks secondary is injured. Safety Jamal Adams (groin) exited Week 3 early and hasn’t played or returned to practice since. Perimeter cornerback Shaquill Griffin (concussion/hamstring) left Sunday Night Football early and is dealing with multiple injuries. He sat out Wednesday practice and seems unlikely to play this weekend. And slot corner Marquise Blair (knee, IR) is out for the year.

Bourne did nothing against the Seahawks in Week 17 last year when Samuel and Emmanuel Sanders were dominating wide receiver targets, but in Week 10 he was 4-42-1 receiving on eight targets with a 2-point conversion.

Bourne is a streamable low-end WR3 in season-long leagues and the No. 1 wide receiver in the SportsGeek and Hodge Models for DraftKings.

Josh Reynolds: Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Miami Dolphins (46 O/U)

In Weeks 1-2, Josh Reynolds out-snapped rookie Van Jefferson, but the team made a concerted effort to funnel opportunities to the new shiny second-rounder, and those came at the expense of the veteran.

  • Josh Reynolds (Weeks 1-2): 79 snaps | 3-50-0, three targets | 50 AirYAC
  • Van Jefferson (Weeks 1-2): 59 snaps | 5-76-0, eight targets | 109 AirYAC

Since then, however, Reynolds has relegated Jefferson to a distant backup.

  • Josh Reynolds (Weeks 3-7): 244 snaps | 15-228-2, 26 targets | 446 AirYAC
  • Van Jefferson (Weeks 3-7): 35 snaps | 2-22-0, four targets | 67 AirYAC

Since Week 3, Reynolds is No. 2 on the team with 89.2 AirYAC and No. 3 with 45.6 yards and 5.2 targets per game. He hasn’t just overtaken Jefferson. He has also overtaken tight end Tyler Higbee.

Right now, Reynolds is the true No. 3 receiving option on the Rams.

The Dolphins aren’t as bad as they were last year, but perimeter receivers who aren’t No. 1 options have still had moderate success — or at least gotten opportunities.

  • N’Keal Harry (Week 1): 6.9 PPR, 1.9 STD | 5-39-0, six targets (lost fumble)
  • John Brown (Week 2): 18.2 PPR, 14.2 STD | 4-82-1, six targets
  • Chris Conley (Week 3): 6.4 PPR, 3.4 STD | 3-34-0, eight targets
  • David Moore (Week 4): 18.5 PPR, 15.5 STD | 3-95-1, four targets
  • Brandon Aiyuk (Week 5): 7.4 PPR, 4.4 STD | 3-44-0, six targets
  • Breshad Perriman (Week 6): 10.2 PPR, 6.2 STD | 4-62-0, eight targets

Reynolds is 6-97-2 receiving on 13 targets over the past couple weeks with his two best games of the season. With his recent form, if he gets 6-8 targets against the Dolphins, he could put up some fantasy points.

For a bye-week waiver-wire desperation play, you could do a lot worse in season-long leagues.

In DFS, Reynolds is the No. 1 wide receiver in the CSURAM88, Koerner and Raybon Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high +4.85 Projected Plus/Minus.

Wide Receivers With Week-Winning Upside

In this section, I highlight some wide receivers I think will outperform expectations and whom I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.

D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (54 O/U): The 49ers might be without NINE starters and key contributors on defense (see Lockett, Tyler), and Metcalf was 12-151-1 receiving on 22 targets in two games against the 49ers last year. In 2020, Metcalf is No. 3 with 145 AirYAC per game, No. 6 with 11.8 yards per target and, most importantly, No. 1 in my unofficial grown-ass man metric.

Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings (+6.5) at Green Bay Packers (51.5 O/U): A shadow matchup awaits with cornerback Jaire Alexander (90.6 PFF coverage grade, No. 1), but Thielen has dominated in their matchups.

Thielen is No. 3 in the league with a 0.72 WOPR.

A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans (-5.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (53.5 O/U): Since returning in Week 5 from a knee injury, Brown is 18-293-4 receiving on 24 targets in three games with three fantasy WR1 performances (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).

In quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s 16 regular-season starts with the team, over is 13-2-1 (66.9% ROI). You can bet on this game at William Hill.



With No. 1 cornerback William Jackson (concussion) possibly out, Brown is slated for a delicious matchup against backup and former teammate LeShaun Sims, who this year has allowed 9.9 yards per target overall and three touchdowns in his four games as a starter with the Bengals.

Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs (-19.5) vs. New York Jets (49 O/U): The Chiefs have a slate-high 34.25-point implied Vegas total. The Jets rank No. 28 with a 21.8% pass-defense DVOA. In his 35 full games with quarterback Patrick Mahomes, Hill has averaged 87.4 scrimmage yards and 0.80 all-purpose touchdowns per game.

Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) vs. Tennessee Titans (53.5 O/U): No. 1 cornerback Adoree’ Jackson (knee, IR) and slot starter Kristian Fulton (knee) are out for the Titans, so Boyd is slated to match up with seventh-round rookie backup Chris Jackson (29.9 PFF coverage grade), who has allowed 16-149-2 receiving on 21 targets in four games of action. Boyd is pacing toward his third consecutive 1,000-yard season with a team-high 21% target share.

Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions (+3) vs. Indianapolis Colts (50 O/U): Under offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, Golladay has exhibited notable (albeit small-sampled) splits with quarterback Matthew Stafford.

The Colts are No. 4 with a -14.9% pass-defense DVOA, but Golladay has either 100 yards or a touchdown in his four games this year.

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) at Miami Dolphins (46 O/U): X-ray mind reads a tasty matchup against undrafted second-yard backup-turned-starter Nik Needham (41.5 PFF coverage grade), who has allowed 10.0 yards per target this year. As disappointing as Kupp’s 37-417-2 receiving line might be, he is still No. 1 on the team with a 24% target share and 86.6 AirYAC per game.

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings (+6.5) at Green Bay Packers (51.5 O/U): The Packers have been without No. 2 cornerback Kevin King (quadriceps) since halfway through Week 4, and he’s yet to practice, so while teammate Adam Thielen draws the shadow coverage of No. 1 corner Jaire Alexander, Jefferson is likely to match up with backup Josh Jackson, who has allowed a 68.6% catch rate for his career. Since moving from the slot to the perimeter in Week 3, Jefferson is 23-467-3 receiving on 30 targets with a 2-point conversion and has surpassed Thielen in AirYAC (570 vs. 477).

Jamison Crowder, New York Jets (+19.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (49 O/U): In each of his four games this year Crowder has 10-plus targets, and since joining the Jets, he has had notable splits with real quarterbacks (in other words, without someone like Luke Falk).

Crowder (groin) missed last week and is yet to practice this week, so monitor his status as we head into the weekend.

Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers (+2.5) at Seattle Seahawks (54 O/U): The Seahawks are highly exploitable via the passing game (see Bourne, Kendrick). No. 1 wide receiver Deebo Samuel (hamstring) is out, and Aiyuk is 15-224-0 receiving on 23 targets and 4-69-2 rushing in his four games without a fully active Samuel.

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) vs. Tennessee Titans (53.5 O/U): Since his Week 3 breakout, Higgins is 24-375-3 receiving on 37 targets with a team-high 126.8 AirYAC per game.

Only most of that is a lie.

Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers (+4) at Baltimore Ravens (46.5 O/U): With just one target and literally -2 yards receiving last week, Claypool massively underwhelmed, but No. 1 wide receiver Diontae Johnson (back) is uncertain to play (he missed Wednesday practice), and Claypool is 12-208-3 receiving and 5-13-2 rushing in his three mostly Johnson-less games. As underdogs on the moneyline, the Steelers under HC Mike Tomlin are an A-graded 29-26 (32.4% ROI).



Perimeter cornerbacks Marcus Peters and Jimmy Smith present a tough matchup, but Claypool has D.K. Metcalf-esque abilities.

T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Detroit Lions (50 O/U): This is it for Hilton. It’s now or never. No. 1 cornerback Desmond Trufant (hamstring) last played in Week 4 and is yet to practice. As an injury fill-in, Jeffrey Okudah has allowed 24-350-0 receiving on 35 targets and limited action. He’s dead-last among starting corners with a 30.1 PFF coverage grade.

A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) vs. Tennessee Titans (53.5 O/U): Three Bengals receivers? In this economy? For the season, Green still has a team-high 117.7 AirYAC per game. Of all the wide receivers on the main slate, Green ranks the highest in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Week 8 Air Yards Buy-Low Model.

Editor’s Note: This article was written before Julian Edelman was ruled out of Week 8.

Julian Edelman, New England Patriots (+4) at Buffalo Bills (42.5 O/U): I know, I know. Just let me get through this. The Bills have fairly consistently been exploited by starter-caliber slot receivers.

  • Jamison Crowder (Week 1): 24.5 PPR, 17.5 STD | 7-115-1, 13 targets
  • Isaiah Ford (Week 2): 14.6 PPR, 7.6 STD | 7-76-0, nine targets
  • Cooper Kupp (Week 3): 25.7 PPR, 16.7 STD | 9-107-1, 10 targets
  • Hunter Renfrow (Week 4): 10.7 PPR, 5.7 STD | 5-57-0, eight targets
  • Adam Humphries (Week 5): Out (COVID-19)
  • Tyreek Hill (Week 6): 5.5 PPR, 2.5 STD | 3-20-0, three targets | 1-5-0 rushing (fart noise)
  • Jamison Crowder (Week 7): Out (groin)

Edelman still leads the team with a 23% target share and 0.57 WOPR.

Marvin Jones Jr., Detroit Lions (+3) vs. Indianapolis Colts (50 O/U): Last week’s 5-80-0 receiving performance on six targets was a true “Daddy ain’t dead” statement. In the Kenny Golladay era (since 2018), Jones has been a fantasy WR1 in 18% of his games.

Jones is on the positive side of his Golladay-era splits with 16.4 DraftKings and 14.3 FanDuel points per game as a home underdog (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).

Rashard Higgins, Cleveland Browns (-2.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (51 O/U): No. 1 wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (knee, IR) exited last week early, and in his absence Higgins was 6-110-0 receiving on six targets. In his seven games with four-plus targets with quarterback Baker Mayfield, Higgins has done well.

The Raiders are No. 31 with a 36.5 PFF coverage grade.

K.J. Hamler, Denver Broncos (+3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (44.5 O/U): Top perimeter receiver Tim Patrick (concussion) exited Week 7 early and hasn’t returned to practice. An upside speedster, Hamler was No. 2 on the team with 168 AirYAC and No. 3 with 12 targets in his healthy Weeks 2-3 stretch.

Braxton Berrios, New York Jets (+19.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (49 O/U): No. 1 receiver Jamison Crowder (groin) missed last week and is uncertain to play. In Berrios’ three Crowder-less games this year, he has done well as an injury fill-in in the slot.

Monitor Crowder’s status as Sunday approaches.

Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears (+4) vs. New Orleans Saints (43.5 O/U): No. 1 wide receiver Allen Robinson (concussion) is uncertain for Week 8, which puts the rookie speedster in line to lead the team in receiving. Over the past month, Mooney actually leads Robinson in AirYAC (467 vs. 443).

Marquez Callaway, New Orleans Saints (-4) at Chicago Bears (43.5 O/U): Nos. 1-2 wide receivers Michael Thomas (hamstring/ankle) and Emmanuel Sanders (COVID-19) missed Week 7, and in their absence Callaway went off for 8-75-0 receiving on 10 targets. Callaway (ankle) exited the game early and missed practice on Wednesday, so he’s not a lock to play, but if active he could once again have heavy volume.

Deonte Harris, New Orleans Saints (-4) at Chicago Bears (43.5 O/U): If Michael Thomas (hamstring/ankle), Emmanuel Sanders (COVID-19) and Marquez Callaway (ankle) are all out …

Denzel Mims, New York Jets (+19.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (49 O/U): Slot receiver Jamison Crowder (groin) missed last week, and perimeter receiver Breshad Perriman (concussion) left the game early with a head injury. If they sit out Week 8, Mims seems likely to lead the team in receiving. In his Week 7 NFL debut, Mims was 4-42-0 receiving on seven targets with a nice team-high 69 AirYAC.

Demarcus Robinson, Kansas City Chiefs (-19.5) vs. New York Jets (49 O/U): Someone has to catch a touchdown pass from quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

David Moore, Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (54 O/U): Again, the 49ers might be without NINE starters and key contributors on defense (see Lockett, Tyler; see Metcalf, D.K.). Over the past two-plus years, Moore has been a fantasy WR1 in 11% of his games.

Moore has been highly efficient in his career with 9.4 yards per target.

Marcus Johnson, Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Detroit Lions (50 O/U): There’s a non-zero chance I’ll look in the mirror next week and tell myself that Johnson is the No. 1 wide receiver for the Colts.



Matthew Freedman is 702-562-27 (55.5%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

The Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, Freedman is commonly called the Oracle & the Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: Davante Adams
Photo credit: Stacy Revere/Getty Images

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About the Author

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. The only edge he has in anything is his knowledge of '90s music.