The Week 8 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Nov. 1, at 1 p.m. ET.
In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically our FantasyLabs Models. While the Models are built for daily contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
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Top Quarterbacks in the FantasyLabs Models
There are four quarterbacks atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek), Ryan Hodge and I have constructed.
Here’s where they place within our Week 8 fantasy football rankings (as of Tuesday evening).
- Russell Wilson: No. 1
- Ryan Tannehill: No. 6
- Joe Burrow: No. 11
- Derek Carr: No. 12
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
Check in throughout the week as I publish the rest of the positional breakdowns.
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network. For updates, see our FantasyLabs News Feed.
Odds as of Tuesday evening and via DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus today.
Russell Wilson: Seattle Seahawks (-3) vs. San Francisco 49ers (54 Over/Under)
Wilson leads the NFL with 9.4 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A), which is right in line with what we saw out of Patrick Mahomes (9.6) in his 2018 MVP campaign.
Even though the Seahawks suffered their first loss of the season last week, Wilson is still easily the MVP frontrunner with 1,890-22-6 passing and 29-237-0 rushing.
I don’t want to put too much weight on a five-game sample, but Wilson is pacing for an all-time great passing season.
- Week 1 (at ATL): 31.8 fantasy points | 322-4-0 passing | 3-29-0 rushing
- Week 2 (vs. NE): 33.4 fantasy points | 288-5-0 passing | 5-39-0 rushing
- Week 3 (vs. DAL): 36.8 fantasy points | 315-5-0 passing | 6-22-0 rushing
- Week 4 (at MIA): 20.9 fantasy points | 360-2-1 passing | 4-5-0 rushing
- Week 5 (vs. MIN): 24.5 fantasy points | 217-3-1 passing | 5-58-0 rushing
- Week 6 (at ARI: 29.9 fantasy points | 388-3-3 passing | 6-84-0 rushing
In 2020, the Seahawks have abandoned their 2018-19 run-heavy ways and are passing far more frequently than even the most optimistic prognosticator would have imagined. This year, they are No. 9 with a 61.5% pass-play rate; last year, No. 27, 54.3%.
Head coach Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer are letting Russ cook.
On the season, Wilson is No. 1 with 32.7 fantasy points per game and No. 2 with 0.71 fantasy points per drop back (per Pro Football Focus).
There are a few factors in Wilson’s favor this week.
First of all, the Seahawks lost in Week 7, so we might get “Revengeful Russ” in Week 8. (I’m still workshopping that name. Not totally satisfied with it.)
For his career, Wilson is 72-55-7 against the spread (ATS) in the regular season, good for a 10.4% return on investment (ROI, per our Bet Labs database). That’s pretty good.
Off a loss, Wilson has been even better, going 23-12-4 ATS (26.1% ROI) with a margin of +4.24 points.
If history is any indicator, Wilson should be on. You can bet on this game at DraftKings.
Second, he’s at home, and in the post-Marshawn Lynch era (since 2016), Wilson has had notable home/away splits (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).
- At Home (37 games): 22.7 FanDuel points | 64.9% Consistency Rating
- On Road (40 games): 19.2 FanDuel points | 57.5% Consistency Rating
Third, Wilson has a good matchup against the 49ers. As good as the 49ers defense was last year, that unit is not walking through the door in Week 8.
The 49ers are catastrophically injured. Last week, the 49ers defense was without the supermajority of its starters and key contributors.
- Edge rusher: Nick Bosa (knee, IR), Dee Ford (back, IR) and Ziggy Ansah (arm, IR)
- Defensive tackle: Solomon Thomas (knee, IR)
- Linebacker: Kwon Alexander (ankle)
- Cornerback: Richard Sherman (calf, IR) and K’Waun Williams (knee/hip, IR)
- Safety: Jaquiski Tartt (groin) and Jimmie Ward (quadricep)
That’s nine guys. NINE. And based on last week’s practice reports, there’s a significant chance that not one of these guys will return to action on Sunday.
This year, the 49ers have faced two quarterbacks somewhat comparable to Wilson based on their pocket passing capability, running functionality and team offensive potency. Both of those quarterbacks have dominated.
- Kyler Murray (Week 1): 26.3 fantasy points | 230-1-1 passing | 13-91-1 rushing
- Ryan Fitzpatrick (Week 5): 27.6 fantasy points | 350-3-0 passing | 3-16-0 rushing
A must-start every-week top-three QB1 in season-long leagues, Wilson is a viable pay-up option for cash games and guaranteed prize pools in DFS. He leads all quarterbacks with his median and floor projections in our Models.
Wilson is the No. 1 quarterback in the Koerner and Hodge Models for FanDuel, where he has a position-high +5.45 Projected Plus/Minus.
Ryan Tannehill: Tennessee Titans (-6) at Cincinnati Bengals, 54.5 O/U
Last year, Tannehill came out of nowhere to lead the league with a 10.2 AY/A in the regular season, and he has continued to impress in 2020.
- Week 1 (at DEN): 19.4 fantasy points | 249-2-0 passing | 3-14-0 rushing
- Week 2 (vs. JAX): 26.8 fantasy points | 239-4-0 passing | 4-12-0 rushing
- Week 3 (at MIN): 12.7 fantasy points | 321-0-1 passing | 4-9-0 rushing
- Week 4 (vs. BUF): 30.0 fantasy points | 195-3-0 passing | 4-42-1 rushing
- Week 5 (vs. HOU): 28.6 fantasy points | 366-4-0 passing | 0-0-0 rushing
- Week 6 (vs. PIT): 17.3 fantasy points | 220-2-0 passing | 2-5-0 rushing
In every game this year, Tannehill has either 300 yards or multiple touchdowns passing — and that’s despite missing No. 1 wide receiver A.J. Brown for Weeks 2-3, No. 2 wide receiver Corey Davis for Weeks 5-6, No. 3 wide receiver Adam Humphries for Week 5 and No. 1 tight end Jonnu Smith for most of Week 6.
Tannehill has been incredibly efficient in his time with the Titans. Of all quarterbacks with 10-plus starts, he is No. 2 behind only Lamar Jackson with his 7.7 fantasy points over expectation per game since last year. (FPOE, per RotoViz NFL Player Statistical Summary).
For context, here are the top-six quarterbacks in FPOE per game since the 2019 season.
- Lamar Jackson (21 games): 7.9 FPOE
- Ryan Tannehill (18 games): 7.7 FPOE
- Russell Wilson (22 games): 6.7 FPOE
- Patrick Mahomes (21 games): 5.9 FPOE
- Dak Prescott (21 games): 5.2 FPOE
- Deshaun Watson (22 games): 5.0 FPOE
We’re looking at probably the five best quarterbacks in fantasy and maybe reality — and then Tannehill.
The man deserves respect.
There are a few reasons to be bullish on Tannehill this week.
First, the over is 13-2-1 (66.9% ROI) in Tannehill’s 16 regular-season starts with the Titans.
Get them points. You can bet on this game at FanDuel.
Second, he’s facing the Bengals, who are No. 26 with an 18.8% pass-defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders). With the exception of Tyrod Taylor in Week 1, every quarterback to face the Bengals this year has either passed for 300 yards or scored multiple touchdowns.
Just last week, Baker Mayfield — without No. 1 wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. for most of the game — put up 29.8 fantasy points on 297-5-1 passing against the Bengals. The week before that, Philip Rivers had 24.7 fantasy points on 371-3-1 passing.
The Bengals can be beaten through the air.
Brown is slated for an especially great matchup against cornerback LeShaun Sims, an injury fill-in for No. 1 cornerback William Jackson (concussion), who missed Week 7. A member of the 2016-19 Titans, Sims has struggled in his first year with the Bengals, allowing 9.9 yards per target overall and three touchdowns in his four games as a starter.
Against his former teammate, Brown could gift 100 yards and two touchdowns all on his own to Tannehill.
A solid QB1 in season-long leagues, Tannehill is a mid-priced tournament play in DFS.
You can use our FantasyLabs Correlations Tool to research the overlapping production of passers and receivers, and over the past year Tannehill and Brown have had a 0.65 correlation. For guaranteed prize pools, use our Lineup Builder to stack Tannehill with his playmaking receiver.
Tannehill is the No. 1 quarterback in the Bales, CSURAM88, Raybon, SportsGeek and Freedman Models for FanDuel, where he has a position-high 99% Bargain Rating.
Joe Burrow: Cincinnati Bengals (+6) vs. Tennessee Titans (54.5 O/U)
Burrow is popping in some of our Models for the second straight week, and it’s not hard to see why.
Burrow is No. 25 with a 6.3 AY/A, so it’s not as if he’s tearing up the league with an LSU-style aerial attack, but he is No. 1 with 293 pass attempts and 24.2 expected fantasy points per game, thanks primarily to the Bengals’ top-10 offensive pace (26.46 seconds per play, No. 9) and pass-play rate (63.5%, No. 5).
With the exception of his Week 5 road loss to the Ravens, the No. 1 overall pick has looked good for a rookie.
- Week 1 (vs. LAC): 16.3 fantasy points | 193-0-1 passing | 8-46-1 rushing
- Week 2 (at CLE): 24.5 fantasy points | 316-3-0 passing | 7-19-0 rushing
- Week 3 (at PHI): 20.4 fantasy points | 312-2-0 passing | 1-minus 1-0 rushing
- Week 4 (vs. JAX): 15.1 fantasy points | 300-1-1 passing | 4-11-0 rushing
- Week 5 (at BAL): 4.3 fantasy points | 183-0-1 passing | 3-10-0 rushing
- Week 6 (at IND): 16.7 fantasy points | 313-0-1 passing | 3-2-1 rushing
- Week 7 (vs. CLE): 33.6 fantasy points | 406-3-1 passing | 6-34-1 rushing
With five 300-yard passing performances, Burrow is actually No. 1 in the league and has been a fantasy QB1 in 57% of his games (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).
Burrow has one of the best wide receiver trios in the league with Tyler Boyd in the slot and A.J. Green and Tee Higgins on the perimeter, and the Titans are without No. 1 cornerback Adoree’ Jackson (knee, IR) and slot starter Kristian Fulton (knee).
Except for Drew Lock in Week 1, every quarterback to face the Titans has passed for multiple touchdowns.
A streaming option on the QB1/2 borderline in season-long leagues, Burrow is a feasible pay-down DFS option, especially on DraftKings, where he’s the No. 1 quarterback in the Bales, CSURAM88, Raybon, SportsGeek and Hodge Models.
Derek Carr: Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5) at Cleveland Browns (53.5 O/U)
Let’s be honest: You’re not overly desirous to read analysis on Carr, and I’m not itching to write it, so I’ll be brief. [Takes a big swig of water and cracks knuckles.]
Rather quietly, Carr is pacing for career-best numbers with his 1,726-13-2 passing line. He is No. 5 in the league with a 9.0 AY/A. In every game but one he has been no worse than a fantasy QB2.
The Browns have a bottom-quartile No. 25 pass defense (17.8% DVOA), and they have allowed a league-high three games of 300 yards and three touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks.
Carr is a low-end QB1 in season-long leagues and the No. 1 quarterback in the Koerner and Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he has position-high marks with a +4.49 Projected Plus/Minus and 68% Bargain Rating.
Quarterbacks With Week-Winning Upside
In this section, I highlight some quarterbacks I think will outperform expectations and whom I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (-19) vs. New York Jets (48.5 O/U): The Jets are No. 28 with a 21.8% pass-defense DVOA, and the Chiefs have a slate-high 33.75-point implied Vegas total. Mahomes leads all quarterbacks in our Models with his ceiling projections.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (-6.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings (54 O/U): Angry Aaron has a league-high three games with four touchdowns passing, and his elite 9.2 AY/A matches the mark he hit in his 2011 MVP season. At home, Rodgers is an A-graded 55-30-3 ATS (25.8%).
You can bet on this game at William Hill. The Vikings are coming off their bye, but they might be without cornerbacks Mike Hughes (neck), Holton Hill (foot) and Kris Boyd (hamstring).
Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns (-2.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (53.5 O/U): The Raiders are No. 31 with a 36.5 PFF coverage grade, and Mayfield was 297-5-1 passing last week. The over is a league-best 5-0-1 (76.8%) in Raiders games this year.
Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers (+3) at Seattle Seahawks (54 O/U): This is a flow-chart matchup for Garoppolo.
Check the Week 8 Flow Chart before submitting your lineups… pic.twitter.com/yVCefXy2wb
— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) October 27, 2020
In every game this season, the Seahawks have allowed either 300 yards or multiple touchdowns passing, and opposing quarterbacks are No. 2 with 26.4 fantasy points per game on 2,243-11-8 passing and 39-188-4 rushing.
Matthew Freedman is 702-562-27 (55.5%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
The Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, Freedman is commonly called the Oracle & the Labyrinthian.
Pictured above: Russell Wilson
Photo credit: Christian Petersen/Getty Images
