In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models
There are two wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed, as well as our proprietary Cash Game and Tournament Models.
Here’s where they place within our Week 8 Fantasy Rankings (as of Tuesday evening):
- Stefon Diggs (3rd)
- Tee Higgins (22nd)
We’ll discuss why these two are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks in potential high-scoring games.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Tuesday
- Tight Ends on Thursday
- Running Backs on Friday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Wide Receivers
Stefon Diggs ($8,100 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (-13.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (49.5 total)
Like his quarterback, Stefon Diggs is the top overall choice in our models this week. Diggs leads all of our FanDuel Models and our Tournament Model on DraftKings. The Bills have a slate-leading 31.5 point Vegas implied total. Those points are likeliest to come through the air. That, of course, means Diggs, who easily leads the team with his 26% target share.
FanDuel really dropped the ball with Diggs’ pricing this week, making him a must-play there (almost irrespective of Ownership Projections…almost). He’s third in our rankings for Week 8, with one of the two above him (Tyreek Hill) being off the main slate. Despite that, Diggs is 11th in FanDuel salary this week.
Of course, this is not a hard situation to spot. Diggs is a clear value, and everyone knows it. That means we need to find ways to be unique if building around Diggs. My preferred option would be to build Dolphins stacks that include Diggs. For Diggs to have a truly monster game, the Dolphins will have to keep scoring. Buffalo isn’t throwing at the ridiculous rate they were last season — “only” eighth in pass rate over expectation. Diggs is still a solid value if the Bills run over the Dolphins since he’ll likely be productive along the way. However, scenarios with true slate-breaking scores involve the Dolphins competing.
On the other hand, you could get leverage from Diggs on FanDuel by investing in the Bills running game instead. If the first score or two for the Bills come on the ground, they’ll likely keep the ball there. It’s doubtful the Bills totally fail here— so if you want to fade the chalk, you need to think about what type of game will lead to Diggs being a disappointment.
On DraftKings, things are a bit more interesting. Diggs is the most expensive wideout after Cooper Kupp, which is exactly in line with our rankings. We have his Plus/Minus projection at slightly negative — meaning his median outcome is to score slightly less than average for $8,100 wide receivers. He’s still a strong play, but he needs to have a game closer to his ceiling than his floor to make sense on DraftKings.
Naturally, his Projected Ownership will likely be greatly reduced on DraftKings, which flips the strategy decisions around. You can play him by himself there; a big game should separate you from the field without finding further correlation. Our brand new Minimalist Tournament Model is designed to help you find one-off players like that — Diggs currently ranks second.
Projected Ownership is 25% of this model, so results could vary drastically once ownership projections go live. It’s too early to say for sure, but I expect Diggs to be less popular on DraftKings than Kupp, so he could take the lead as projections roll out.
Diggs is a very strong play regardless of format — he’s the alpha receiver for the highest-projected team on the slate. Finding unique ways to fit him into lineups will be what separates the field this weekend.
Tee Higgins ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (-10.5) at New York Jets (43 total)
Higgins is the unquestioned leader in most of our DraftKings models this week, including the Cash Game Model. This is thanks to his slate-leading 2.9 Pts/Sal.
Higgins is interesting to project. He, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tyler Boyd are splitting targets fairly equally when all three are healthy. Each of them have between 22 and 25 percent of the Bengals targets. However, Higgins has done the least with his work, trailing both Boyd and Chase in points per opportunity.
Generally, especially for wide receivers, we expect points per opportunity to regress closer to the mean. This is driven by a couple of factors. First, receiver targets reflect talent to a degree, not just play calling. Higgins wouldn’t draw as many looks if he were unable to get open. Second, things like drops and especially touchdowns have a high degree of variation and should converge to a baseline rate. (This doesn’t factor in the types of targets the player receives — more on that later).
All of that means we’re likely seeing the lower end of Higgins’ range of outcomes so far. While Higgins’ role isn’t as fantasy-friendly as Chase’s, it’s still solid. His average depth of target (aDOT) is similar to Chris Godwin’s and not far off of Cooper Kupp. Neither of those players are considered low-ceiling, dink-and-dunk options.
This week would be a good time for a Higgins breakout. The Bengals are implied for almost 27 points currently, and they’re taking on the 28th ranked Jets pass defense. The Bengals have also been throwing more recently. They averaged 25 pass attempts across their first three games and just under 35 since then.
Higgins is an ideal cash game play this week on DraftKings. His moderate aDOT, solid volume role makes him more valuable than his price tag would imply. There’s also a path to a ceiling game that we haven’t seen yet for Higgins. This could be the week he gets there.
Other Wide Receivers With Week-Winning Upside
Cooper Kupp ($9,000 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel): Los Angeles Rams (-14.5) at Houston Texans (48 total)
Kupp is becoming the Christian McCaffrey of wide receivers this year. His production is so ridiculous that it almost doesn’t matter what he costs. He’s the most expensive player on both sites (although relatively much cheaper on FanDuel — he has a 97% Bargain Rating). Even so, he’s scored at least 26.8 points in five of seven games this season, good for a Pts/Sal of roughly 3.0. The slate leader in Pts/Sal this week is Higgins, at 2.9.
There are concerns with Kupp this week though. The Rams are expected to blow the Texans out, which could mean more rushing than we’ve seen lately. That was the expectation last week, too, and Kupp had his best game of the season, but that was because the Lions made a game of it.
Kupp is unlikely to totally fail here, but we could see a disappointing game by his standards.
Ja’Marr Chase ($7,500 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (-10.5) at New York Jets (43 total)
Chase is arbitrage Kupp this week — similar upside — lower price. Over the past three weeks, Chase has two games above 20 DraftKings points. While he doesn’t have Kupp’s volume, his 14.9 aDOT allows him to post big numbers with moderate targets.
Chase is the fifth most-expensive receiver on DraftKings but third in our rankings among main slate players at the position. It’s not a huge discount, but he’s under-priced. On FanDuel, Chase is a bit thinner. He’s closer to Kupp in salary and the second most-expensive option.
DJ Moore ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel): Carolina Panthers (+2.5) at Atlanta Falcons (46 total)
Moore has a top-four Ceiling Projection this week against the Falcons. I’m expecting a bounce-back game for the Panthers offense in general. Atlanta is one of three teams boosting the opponent’s passing production by at least 30% this year.
Moore trails only Kupp in total targets on the year. While targets from Sam Darnold aren’t as valuable as those from Matthew Stafford, they still count for something. Moore also has a better-projected game script than most of the top options this week. As slight underdogs, Carolina is likely to throw the ball far more often than the Bengals, Bills, or Rams.
Terry McLaurin ($7,600 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel): Washington Football Team (+3) at Denver Broncos (43 total)
The case for F1 is similar to that of Moore’s. He’s top-five in the league in targets and playing on a slight underdog against a bad pass defense. McLaurin is slightly over-priced on DraftKings. for his Median Projection, leading to a negative Projected Plus/Minus. However, he has the ceiling to make that irrelevant, with three games north of 28 DraftKings points this year. He’s also a great deal on FanDuel, where he’s outright cheaper despite the bigger salary cap.
Editor’s note: McLaurin was sidelined in Wednesday’s practice due to an ankle injury.
Keenan Allen ($6,500 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5) vs New England Patriots (48.5 total)
Allen is quickly becoming the forgotten man in this Chargers offense, as gunslinging quarterback Justin Herbert locks into big Mike Williams However, Allen is still seeing nearly 10 targets per game. He’s also scored at least 10 DraftKings points every game this season, so he’s unlikely to totally disappoint. There’s a chance Bill Belichick focuses on shutting down Williams this week — they’re known for limiting their opponents’ top option. That means the Chargers could lean on Allen more heavily than normal.
Value Wide Receivers
Value receivers are very thin on DraftKings this week. There are not many options cheaper than Higgins that we can feel good about. Even so, sometimes lineups require saving money somewhere, so here are my two favorite options.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($3,900 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel): Detroit Lions(+3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles(47.5 total)
St. Brown saw almost eight targets per game from Week 4 to Week 6 — before inexplicably disappearing last week. He was in on 43 snaps in Week 7 but failed to draw a target. Having a player on your fantasy roster run empty wind sprints all game isn’t ideal, but I doubt that continues this week.
Philadelphia is much easier to attack through the air than last week’s opponent, the Rams. St. Brown would need to score his first NFL touchdown to post a score you really feel good about, but he had three-straight games of at least 9.6 DraftKings points.
Van Jefferson ($3,900 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel): Los Angeles Rams (-14.5) at Houston Texans (48 total)
Jefferson hasn’t seen quite the targets that St. Brown has (last week notwithstanding), but he’s done far more with them. In an offense like the Rams, 4.6 targets per game goes a long way. Jefferson’s range of outcomes is very wide; he has three games over 16 points and three games under five.
However, if you catch one of the bigger games, it’s a great deal at his salary. I prefer to get up to slightly more expensive options since I expect overall passing volume for the Rams to be down. However, Jefferson is still a strong play on paper.
