The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings, value ratings (using our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric) and projected ownership for the Week 8 NFL slate.
We’ll use the Koerner Model as the foundation.
Also, don’t forget you can use our Trends tool to test your DFS theories. And for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Quarterback
Top Ceiling: Josh Allen vs. Miami Dolphins – $8,100 on DraftKings, $8,800 on FanDuel
It feels like we haven’t mentioned Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen in a very long time. Allen returns to the main slate after a Sunday night matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, followed by a Monday night matchup against the Tennessee Titans, and now returning from a bye. One of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the league, tied for seventh among quarterbacks in touchdowns (15) and 15th in passing yards (1,723).
Not only is the passing game a plus for the Bills, but Allen also moves the ball down the field with his legs, seeing at least five attempts in the Bills’ first six games.
In what looks to be a prime matchup, facing a Dolphins defense ranked 25th according to Football Outsiders, Allen has the potential to reach a 75-percentile outcome. He should benefit from his primary weapon, Stefon Diggs, who has seen at least eight targets in five of the year’s first six games.
Top Value: Taylor Heinicke vs. Denver Broncos – $5,300 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel
Taylor Heinicke provides extreme salary relief, taking over under center duties for an extremely pass-skewed offense, preferring to use a 61%/39% pass-to-run play calling split (per the RotoViz snap and pace tool). Week 8 is an ideal matchup for Heinicke, facing a Broncos defense ranked 26th in DVOA. Look for Heinicke to use wide receiver Terry McLaurin as the first look in the passing game, and should be considered a stackable option, alongside tight end Ricky Seals-Jones. McLaurin has been targeted at least seven times in six of Washington’s first seven games, leading the Football Team with a 29% target share.
Despite a low 44-point total, Washington is a 3.5-point underdog, which may signal Heinicke will increase pass production in an already pass-heavy defense and should be fantasy relevant based on volume alone.
Top Rostered: Jalen Hurts vs. Detroit Lions – $7,200 on DraftKings, $8,400 on FanDuel
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is projected to be a popular choice in lineups this week, facing a winless Detroit Tigers, whose defense ranks 27th in DVOA.
A dual-threat option for the Eagles, Hurts not only distributes the ball to a diverse receiving corps of DeVonta Smith, Jalen Reagor and Dallas Goedert but can also move the offense down the field, seeing seven or more rushing attempts in Philadelphia’s first six games. Philadelphia plays at a lightning-fast pace, calling a play every 23.3 seconds, only slower than the Jacksonville Jaguars, and should keep the foot on the gas against the Lions, especially as a 3-point favorite. However, keep an eye on Hurts’ accuracy. He ranks as the sixth-worst in completion percentage at 61.2%.
Running Back
Top Ceiling: Derrick Henry vs. Indianapolis Colts – $8,900 on DraftKings, $10,500 on FanDuel
Despite facing the No. 1 ranked rush defense, according to Football Outsiders, Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry projects for the highest ceiling among running backs. In a head-scratching win over the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 7, Henry recorded 16.4 actual DraftKings points—the lowest on the season. But, as I’ve mentioned before, fade Henry at your own risk. In five of the Titans’ first six games, Henry has rushed for more than 100 yards and now plays a role in the receiving corps, targeted at least three times in four of the first seven games.
Tennessee is a 1.5-point favorite, and should the game get away from the Colts, extra production should go through Henry, making him a viable candidate to see the 100-rushing yard bonus, and he will likely find his way in the endzone toward a 75-percentile outcome.
Top Value: Cordarrelle Patterson vs. Carolina Panthers – $6,200 on DraftKings, $7,300 on FanDuel
It looks like the Atlanta Falcons are implementing a split backfield of Mike Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson, with Patterson consistently seeing an increase in volume throughout the season. Even with head coach Arthur Smith suggesting Davis will receive additional workload in the upcoming weeks, Patterson has seen 14 rushing attempts in the last two games, rushing for more than 50 yards in both.
An added wrinkle to Patterson is his production in the passing game, especially as part of a Falcons pass-first 63%/37% pass-to-run split. In four of the first seven games of the year, Patterson has been targeted six or more times. The Panthers’ defense ranks 11th in DVOA, which may cause Patterson and the Falcons problems.
At $6,200 on DraftKings, the all-purpose running back should reach fantasy relevance with this projected volume and increase in time on the field, seeing 73% of the Falcons’ snaps in Week 7 (according to the FantasyPros Snap Count Leaderboard).
Top Rostered: Darrell Henderson Jr. vs. Houston Texans – $6,600 on DraftKings, $7,700 on FanDuel
Houston ranks 30th in rush DVOA according to Football Outsiders and grades out as the sixth-worst run defense according to PFF. This Week 8 matchup against the Texans looks to be a prime opportunity for a bounce-back position for Darrell Henderson. Henderson, who seemed to be a popular choice in rosters for the Rams’ Week 7, rushed for 45 yards on 15 carries, scoring 9.4 DraftKings points.
An added benefit for Henderson is the Rams holding on as 14-point favorites in a matchup with likely blowout potential. Should the game get out of hand for the Texans, expect Henderson, who leads the team in carries, responsible for 61% of the work in the backfield, to see additional work in a clock-killing situation.
Wide Receiver
Top Ceiling: Cooper Kupp vs. Houston Texans – $9,000 on DraftKings, $9,200 on FanDuel
Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp has been dominant through the first seven games of the NFL season, leading all pass-catchers with nine touchdowns and has found his way into the end zone in five games this year. Kupp is the preferred target for quarterback Matt Stafford, seeing at least 10 targets in every game.
Despite the high $9,000 price tag on DraftKings, Kupp has the potential to have a 75th-percentile game based on the volume he sees weekly and the big-play ability he has, averaging 14.4 yards per receptions, which should bring him close to the 100-yard receiving bonus. The Texans rank 18th in DVOA and rank as the 29th in pass coverage defense according to PFF, setting up what looks to be an ideal matchup.
A word of caution, however. The Rams are a 14.5-point favorite against the Texans and, in a matchup with extreme blowout potential, may abandon their slightly-skewed 57%/43% run-to-pass split and use running back Darrell Henderson in a clock-kill situation.
Top Value: Tee Higgins vs. New York Jets – $5,200 on DraftKings, $6,300 on FanDuel
The New York Jets defense is ranked among the worst in the league, currently 29th in DVOA. With a prime matchup, Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins should have a great day, seeing seven or more targets in five games this year, including a season-high 15 target performance in a 41-17 win over the Baltimore Ravens.
Given Higgins’ volume and price tag, especially when paired with a $6,000 Joe Burrow, opens the possibility for rosters to consider jamming in a higher-priced option while providing an easy path to fantasy relevance.
Top Rostered: Chris Godwin – $8,400 on DraftKings, $7,200 on FanDuel
Tee Higgins is currently projected for 24% ownership, making him the most popular option on the slate. However, Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin looks to be another popular choice this week. With Antonio Brown likely out for the Week 8 matchup with the New Orleans Saints, Expect Godwin, alongside Mike Evans, should see an uptick in volume. In a Week 7 win against the Chicago Bears, Godwin was targeted 11 times, catching eight passes for 111 yards and one touchdown.
Even facing a tough New Orleans Saints defense that ranks third in DVOA, Godwin should benefit from Tom Brady’s extremely skewed 66%/34% pass-to-run play-calling scheme, with wide receivers seeing a strong 0.67 and 0.43 correlation to Brady. Vegas has this game as a 50.5-point total, and even with a tough matchup, it has the potential to shoot out.
Tight End
Top Ceiling: Kyle Pitts vs. Carolina Panthers – $6,300 on DraftKings, $6,800 on FanDuel
This week, the tight end position is thin without Travis Kelce, Darren Waller and George Kittle on the slate. However, rookie tight end Kyle Pitts appears to have found his form and projects for the highest ceiling in the position. In a 30-28 win over the Miami Dolphins last week, Pitts was targeted eight times, catching seven passes for 163 yards, and has been targeted at least six times in five of the first six games of the year.
The Panthers’ defense, however, is no easy task, ranked ninth in pass DVOA. Pitts should benefit from Matt Ryan’s tendency to rely on the passing game to move the offense, using a 65%/35% pass-to-run play-calling scheme despite the tough matchup. The volume is undoubtedly there for Pitts, and the newcomer has the potential to reach a 75th percentile outcome based on his volume and added touchdown upside.
Top Value: Dan Arnold vs. Seattle Seahawks – $2,800 on DraftKings, $4,900 on FanDuel
Priced at 2,800 on FanDuel, Jaguars’ tight end Dan Arnold looks to be an excellent value play in a Week 8 matchup against the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks pass defense ranks 25th in DVOA, and Arnold should see additional workload behind Marvin Jones Jr. and D.J Chark.
In a Week 6 23-20 win over the Miami Dolphins, Arnold was targeted five times, catching two passes for 27 yards. The Jaguars, who play at the fastest pace in the league, averaging a play every 23.1 seconds, will need to depend on the receiving corps to keep this game competitive as a 3-point underdog. Arnold also provides salary relief as a bring-back option in stacking Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf in primary builds or as a mini-correlation option.
Top Rostered: Jared Cook vs. New England Patriots – $3,400 on DraftKings, $5,200 on FanDuel
Dan Arnold looks to be the most popular tight end on the slate, but at 15.9% projected ownership, Los Angeles Chargers tight end Jared Cook should also appear frequently in lineups this week.
Behind wide receivers Keenan Allen and Robert Woods, Cooks is third with a 13% target share, part of a high-powered Chargers offense that averages 73 plays per game, using a pass-first 66%/34% pass-to-run rate.
Sunday’s matchup looks appealing in facing a Patriots defense ranked 14th in DVOA, giving way to additional targets for the veteran tight end.
