The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for Week 8.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Jalen Hurts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – $8,300 on DraftKings, $9,200 on FanDuel
Jalen Hurts projects for the highest ceiling on the slate, continuing a breakout season, facing the in-state rival Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh’s defense is ranked 14th in overall DVOA, according to Football Outsiders, and looks to be a more difficult matchup on paper, also ranking ninth in rush DVOA.
Hurts leads the Eagles, who are a massive 10.5-point home favorite in a matchup with a low 43.5-point total. Given Hurts’s dual-threat nature, the Eagles run a hyper-balanced offense, using a 50/50 pass-to-run play-calling ratio (per RotoViz). Coming off a bye week might prove to be beneficial for the Eagles, with Hurts throwing for 155 yards and two touchdowns in a Week 6 26-17 win over the Dallas Cowboys. Look for Hurts to also use wideout AJ Brown as the first look, leading the team with a 30% target share, priced at $7,700 on DraftKings.
Per the Trends tool, when Hurts appears in matchups above a 43-point total, he averages 25.41 DraftKings points, with a +3.29 Plus/Minus and a 74.1% consistency rating. Despite what looks to be a low-scoring affair Sunday, Hurts can certainly reach an 85th-percentile outcome both through the air and in his rushing ability.
Top Value: Sam Ehlinger vs. Washington Commanders – $4,000 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel
Sam Ehlinger projects as a top value option on DraftKings, taking over under-center duties for the Indianapolis Colts after quarterback Matt Ryan was reportedly benched for the remainder of the season.
Ehlinger, who is expected to make his first career start Sunday, faces a Washington Commanders defense ranked 16th in DVOA. Coming in as a three-point favorite in a match-up with a 39.5-point total might not be appealing. However, Ehlinger is priced at the near bottom $4,000 on DraftKings, which should open up rosters to higher-priced skill position players.
While Ehlinger has only appeared in three games in his career, The Colts are a pass-heavy team, using a pass-heavy 59%/41% pass-to-run play-calling scheme, facing a defense ranked 18th in overall defense, according to PFF. Given the price and likely volume headed toward wideouts Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce, it will not take much for Ehlinger to reach fantasy viability.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Derrick Henry at Houston Texans – $8,400 on DraftKings, $10,000 on FanDuel
For those who follow narratives, Derrick Henry is essentially unfadeable in the Week 8 matchup against the Houston Texans, projecting for the highest ceiling among running backs.
In his last three meetings with the Texans, Henry has rushed for 250 yards and two touchdowns (39 DraftKings points), 212 and two touchdowns (43.40 DraftKings points), and 211 yards and three touchdowns (42.10 DraftKings points). This year looks to be no different, with the Texans defense ranking last in rushing DVOA. Further, Henry is an integral part of the Titans’ defense, seeing 76% of the rushing share, averaging 22.3 attempts per game and four yards per carry.
Henry has continued to be a consistent rusher, last playing in a Week 7 19-10 win over the Indianapolis Colts, carrying the ball 30 times and rushing for 128 yards. Despite failing to fall into the end zone, Henry has massive upside both in his scoring ability and a likely 100-rushing yard bonus, firmly putting him in the 85th percentile.
Las Vegas comes in a 2.5-point road favorite against the Texans and will likely rely on Henry to help close the game for the Titans. Expect his volume to increase toward the end of the game if the Titans are ahead, which should signal more fantasy relevance.
Top Value: Dameon Pierce vs. Tennessee Titans – $6,300 on DraftKings, $7,3000 on FanDuel
On the other side of Derrick Henry, Houston Texans running back Dameon Pierce projects as a top value at running back this week in a matchup against a tough Titans rush defense–ranked third in the league.
The Texans’ rookie has firmly landed in the lead back role, averaging 17.7 carries per game and 4.75 yards per attempt, accounting for 77% of the workload in the backfield. In addition to his lead rushing status, Piece has also seen an uptick in the passing game, seeing at least four targets since Week 4. In a 38-20 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders, Pierce rushed for 92 yards on 20 carries, also catching four passes for 25 yards. Despite a more difficult matchup this week, Pierce can certainly become fantasy relevant, rushing for 80 or more yards in four of his first six games.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Tyreek Hill at Detroit Lions – $8,500 on DraftKings, $8,700 on FanDuel
Tyreek Hill projects for the highest ceiling among wide receivers in Week 8 in what looks to be a prime matchup against the Detroit Lions, who rank 31st in pass DVOA. Hill looks to be the preferred first-look for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, responsible for a massive 31% of the Dolphins’ target share, averaging 11.1 targets per game and 13.6 yards per reception. In a Week 8 Sunday night matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Hill caught seven passes for 72 yards.
While he has only found the end zone twice, Hill has had 90 more receiving yards in four of his first seven games as a member of the Dolphins.
With first looks in a pass-heavy Dolphins offense, Hill immediately becomes a candidate to reach an 85th percentile outcome, despite the $8,500 salary on DraftKings, and can even be used as a bring-back with Lions skill players in Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift.
Looking at THE BLITZ, Cooper Kupp projects for the highest ceiling in an NFC West matchup with the San Francisco 49ers. The Week 8 matchup looks more difficult for Kupp, with the 49ers ranking ninth in pass DVOA. The superstar, however, certainly can reach a ceiling outcome as the preferred target for Matthew Stafford, seeing 32% of the target share. This season, Kupp is averaging 12 targets per game and 10.8 yards per reception. In a Week 6 24-10 win over the Carolina Panthers, Kupp caught seven passes for 80 yards and should likely see a similar volume Sunday.
Aside from the volume, Kupp is the dangerous target in the red zone, seeing eight red zone targets so far this season, per AddMoreFunds.
Top Value: Wan’Dale Robinson at Seattle Seahawks – $4,700 on DraftKings, $5,900 on FanDuel
With a discounted salary on both sites, Wan’Dale Robinson projects as a top value option this week at wide receiver, facing a Seattle Seahawks defense ranked 19th in pass DVOA.
This season, Robinson is averaging 4.3 targets per game and 9.2 yards per reception and, in what looks to be a more ideal matchup, should see volume from quarterback Daniel Jones, especially as a 3-points road underdog. Should the Giants fall behind, expect the more balanced 56%/44% pass-to-run play-calling ratio to increase, signaling additional opportunities for Robinson. The rookie last played in a 23-17 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, catching six passes for 50 yards
Should the volume continue, Robinson looks to be a consistent producer, either as a one-off play or paired with Seahawks skill players in Tyler Lockett, and Kenneth Walker as a bring-back.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Dallas Goedert vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – $5,000 on DraftKings, $5,900 on FanDuel
Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert projects for the highest ceiling among tight ends, facing a Steelers defense ranked 15th in pass DVOA.
Goedert ranks third in target share on the Eagles, only behind AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith, seeing 19% of the target share from Jalen Hurts. Averaging 5.8 targets per game, Goedert also averages 13.7 yards per reception, seeing six targets, and catching two passes for 22 yards in a 26-17 win over the Dallas Cowboys.
With the passing volume and touchdown upside, consider using Goedert on both sides of stacks for this matchup, making him a popular option on both sites.
Top Value: Noah Fant vs. New York Giants – $2,800 on DraftKings, $4,700 on FanDuel
Noah Fant projects as a top value at tight end, given his near-minimum salary on DraftKings. Averaging 3.7 targets per game and 7.9 yards per reception, Fant certainly becomes a viable fantasy option in a Geno Smith-led Seahawks offense, which uses a 58%/42% pass-to-run play-calling scheme. Projected for lower-than-expected ownership, Fant also looks to be a pivot from Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, who historically see the bulk of the Seahawks’ target share.
In a prime matchup against a Giants’ defense ranked 26th in pass DVOA, look to Fant to open salary for higher-priced skill players and should see volume against a weak defense.
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