The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Lamar Jackson at Cleveland Browns – $8,000 on DraftKings, $8,800 on FanDuel
On both DraftKings and FanDuel, Jackson has the highest ceiling projection in each of the three main projection sets used in this post–Sean Koerner’s, Chris Rayon’s, and THE BLITZ projections. I usually like aggregating them in an even three-way blend and will use that throughout the post, but aggregated or separate; it’s clear that Jackson is the top option this week.
He has played at an elite level most of the season and has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his seven contests. Last week on Monday Night Football, Jackson threw for 281 yards and five touchdowns while running for 50+ yards as well. He finished with 35.44 DraftKings points, the highest mark of any player for the entire week.
The only concern with playing Jackson this week is that the Browns may be non-competitive after trading Amari Cooper ($6,000) and losing Deshaun Watson (Achilles) for the season. In some games, the Ravens have opened a big lead and gone very run-heavy, which can sometimes result in less usage for Jackson.
However, he has rushed for 40+ yards in every game this season and has an impressive 15 touchdown passes compared to just two interceptions. He has a very high floor and a high ceiling, even though he may not be pushed to reach it this week in Cleveland.
If you’re paying up for a star QB, Jackson has proven he’s the best option on the board.
Top Value: Bo Nix vs. Carolina Panthers – $5,600 on DraftKings, $6,900 on FanDuel
Nix is another QB with a high ceiling due to his rushing potential, and he comes at a very nice salary this week in a juicy matchup at home against Carolina. Nix has the top Projected Plus/Minus in the aggregate projections this week on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Last week, Nix powered the Broncos past the Saints by throwing for 164 yards and rushing for a season-high 75 yards on 10 carries. He has run for 35+ yards four times this season and 60+ yards in each of the last two weeks. He only finished with 14.06 DraftKings points last week since he wasn’t involved in any of Denver’s touchdowns, but he should be able to get back in the scoring column this week against the Panthers.
Carolina has allowed the seventh-most DraftKings points to opposing QBs this season, allowing 14 passing touchdowns in seven games and an average of 228.3 passing yards a game. With Bryce Young ($4,900) back at starting QB, the Panthers may struggle to hold onto the ball long against the Broncos’ solid defense, giving Nix more chances to produce.
His ownership projection is also high since the matchup is such an obvious smash spot, so if you want to go more contrarian, Trevor Lawrence ($5,600) and Geno Smith ($5,900) are good pivots to consider under $6,000 on DraftKings. If you’re in cash games or are differentiating at other spots, Nix is a cheap play that makes sense since he brings so much upside.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Breece Hall at New England Patriots – $7,300 on DraftKings, $7,900 on FanDuel
Hall is in a smash spot and brings the highest ceiling projection at running back this week, even though his salary is outside the top 10 expected to play on FanDuel and the top seven on DraftKings. He also has the top Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Hall comes into this divisional matchup after two monster games in primetime. Even though the Jets lost both games, Hall exceeded salary-based expectations as he has five times in his seven games this year. He had 24.9 DraftKings points and 113 rushing yards against Buffalo and then went off as a receiver last week, racking up 103 receiving yards and 29.1 DraftKings points against the Steelers.
With Todd Downing calling the plays, Hall has stepped in as the focus of the offense. While Davante Adams ($7,100) has become the lightning rod with this team, Hall has been the best fantasy contributor. That should continue this week since the Patriots have been a dream matchup for running backs.
Opposing RBs have scored a rushing touchdown in every game this season against New England and have totaled 10 scores to go with averages of 122.7 rushing yards and 33 receiving yards per week. In Week 3 in this same matchup, Hall scored a touchdown and had 18.3 fantasy points.
Like Nix, Hall’s ownership projection is high, but he seems like a free space play this week, given his workload, matchup, and relatively affordable salary.
Top Value: Javonte Williams vs. Carolina Panthers – $6,000 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel
If you buy the game script that the Broncos will be playing from ahead against the Panthers, Williams is a great play at running back and can even be paired with Nix at QB. Williams has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in the aggregate on FanDuel and the third-highest on DraftKings.
Williams had a monster game last Thursday against the Saints, racking up 88 yards, two touchdowns, and a season-high 26.1 DraftKings points on just 14 carries. He added three catches for 23 more yards.
While he has been stuck in a timeshare with Jaleel McLaughlin ($4,600), but has played 60% of snaps or more in each of the last three weeks. He also has multiple receptions in six straight games and has reached double-digit DraftKings points in three of the last four weeks.
The Panthers have allowed the most DraftKings points to running backs this season. Opposing backs have an unreal 14 touchdowns against them in only seven games, with an average of 133.3 rushing yards and 27.4 receiving yards per game. There should be plenty of production to go around for both Williams and McLaughlin if the Broncos play from ahead against Young and the Panthers in Denver.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Ja’Marr Chase vs. Philadelphia Eagles – $8,500 on DraftKings, $9,200 on FanDuel
Chase has the top ceiling projection of all receivers in the aggregate projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Since there is so much value available with 26 teams on the slate, paying all the way up for Chase should be possible, and it’s worth it for the ceiling he brings against the Eagles.
The star receiver has found the end zone six times in his last five games, including a monster two-touchdown performance against the Ravens in his most recent home game. In his previous home game, he had two touchdowns and 118 yards against the Commanders, finishing with 39.3 and 29.8 DraftKings points in those two home contests.
Counting on him for multiple touchdowns and 100+ yards may be optimistic, but he does have that kind of ceiling, especially at home against the Eagles. Philly’s secondary has allowed opposing receivers to score the 10th-most fantasy football points. They have been better since their bye week but have only faced the Browns and Giants, who haven’t been tested by an elite passing game like the Bengals.
While he hasn’t gotten a ton of targets compared to other elite receivers, he has made a huge impact when he does get the ball. The Bengals-Eagles game has the second-highest over/under on the slate, and in a high-scoring environment, Chase’s ceiling is always extremely high.
Top Value: Jalen McMillan vs. Atlanta Falcons – $3,700 on DraftKings, $4,900 on FanDuel
Since DFS salaries come out before Monday Night Football, the Bucs offer massive value this week since both Mike Evans (hamstring) and Chris Godwin (ankle) suffered major injuries on Monday and open up plenty of targets to go around. McMillan has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers in the aggregate projections on DraftKings, and he’s fourth on FanDuel, where his teammate Trey Palmer takes the top spot. Starling Shepard is also in the mix and could be a great value as well.
McMillan seems to be the most sure thing of those three receivers since he was already in the mix on Monday. The rookie out of Washington had a career-high eight targets on Monday, and even though he only had three catches for 15 yards, he could be poised for a breakout game this week. Godwin and Cade Otton (discussed below) were the only Bucs with more targets than McMillan in Week 7.
Whoever gets the targets should return good value since the Falcons have allowed the ninth-most DraftKings points to receivers this season. When these teams met in Week 5, the Bucs’ receivers totaled 130 receiving yards and three touchdowns. The receiving corps will be totally different this week, but McMillan has a good chance to lead the way and return elite value if he steps up.
If you want a more contrarian value play, Ladd McConkey ($5,100) shows well in our DraftKings projections, along with Devaughn Vele ($3,400) of the Broncos if you’re looking for an option to stack with Nix. On FanDuel, besides Palmer and Vele, Jakobi Meyers ($5,600) stands out as a value, provided he can return from an ankle injury that has kept him out the past two games.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Trey McBride at Miami Dolphins – $5,500 on DraftKings, $6,700 on FanDuel
The headline matchup of tight ends between Brock Bowers and Travis Kelce is a juicy one, but the top ceiling projection on both DraftKings and FanDuel actually comes from Trey McBride as he and the Cardinals head to Miami. McBride is cheaper than both star tight ends and has a higher ceiling projection on both sites.
Last week against the Chargers, McBride had five catches for 51 yards and exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel for the third straight week since returning from a concussion. He has at least five catches and 50+ yards in each of those three contests while averaging a robust 8.0 targets per game from Kyler Murray. He hasn’t scored yet this season but seems overdue for positive touchdown regression.
Even though the Cardinals are on a short week, McBride shows very well in our projections due to his high floor and heavy involvement every week in the Cardinals’ passing game. With Tua Tagovailoa expected to return for Miami, this game could get high-scoring in a hurry, opening up plenty of usage and production for McBride.
Top Value: Cade Otton vs. Atlanta Falcons – $3,500 on DraftKings, $5,200 on FanDuel
Of all the pass-catching value options from the Bucs, Otton is the safest and most reliable play since he has already been a very good contributor and comes at a bargain price this week. He has by far the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all tight ends on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the aggregate projections. Even if you go with a superstar TE or a strong midrange play like David Njoku, Otton makes sense to consider at a flex spot with so much potential value.
Against the Ravens on Monday, Otton set season highs with eight catches on 10 targets for 100 yards and 21 fantasy points. He didn’t even score a touchdown and still went off for a monster night while helping pick up the slack following Evans’ departure. With Godwin now out as well, he’ll be even busier this week against the Falcons.
To be fair, Otton was already on a pretty nice roll and exceeded salary-based expectations on DraftKings each of the last five weeks with an Average Plus/Minus of +4.6 per game. He has at least four targets in each of those five games, including his previous matchup with the Falcons.
The Falcons have given up five catches to tight ends in each of the last two weeks, giving up 49 yards to the Panthers and 70 yards to the Seahawks. Neither of those teams has a tight end as productive as Otton, and Mayfield will lean into his security blanket at tight end with less proven options in other spots on the field.
With so much volume available at such a low salary, look for Otton to be a great value this week. If you need a contrarian play, Jonnu Smith ($3,600) on DraftKings and Dalton Kincaid ($4,000) on FanDuel stand out as possible pivots.
