In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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Top NFL DFS Tight End Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are three tight ends near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Dallas Goedert
- Tyler Higbee
- Noah Fant
We’ll discuss why these are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other tight ends.
Top Model NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Dallas Goedert ($5,000 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel): Philadelphia Eagles (-10.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (43.5 total)
Dallas Goedert put up a stinker prior to the bye, catching merely two of six targets for 22 yards. He steadily produced in the weeks prior, averaging 12.7 DraftKings points per game in his first five games, with only one game below 10 DraftKings points.
He hasn’t really flashed the upside to have a massive volume game, but it could be in there. He’s running a route on the majority of dropbacks, at 87% for the year. He’s seen 20% of the team targets on the year, being between 23% and 27% in each of the past three games.
The lack of massive volume for Goedert is likely due to game script, as Philadelphia hasn’t really been challenged by an opposing offense this year. The bad news is that that trend is likely to continue, as Philadelphia is a 10.5-point favorite against Pittsburgh this week.
The matchup is slightly challenging, as the Steelers rank in the top ten in yards allowed per target (6.2), catch rate (59.6%), and touchdown rate (2.1%) to opposing tight ends.
Goedert leads our Tournament Model this week.
Tyler Higbee ($4,200 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel): Los Angeles Rams (+1) vs. San Francisco 49ers (42 total)
Tyler Higbee and the Rams had a much-needed bye week last week, as he was dealing with an ankle injury prior to the week off. He played on 78% of the snaps in Week 6, which was his lowest of the year. He ran a route on merely 58.82% of dropbacks after running a route on 76% plus in each of the prior three games and is at 81% on the year.
His increased route participation in the offense has also led to a new role for Higbee this year. He’s averaging career highs in targets at 8.3 per game and receptions at 5.7. He’s had double-digit DraftKings points in four of six games, which is pretty impressive for a tight end, considering he hasn’t found the end zone on the year.
Most of Higbee’s targets are coming close to the line of scrimmage, as the Rams have needed to get the ball out quickly due to their offensive line struggles. Those struggles were apparent in Week 4 in this exact same matchup, where Higbee caught ten of 14 targets for 73 yards. His average depth of target in the game was 3.7 yards.
Higbee should be in for some positive touchdown regression. That coupled with his monster usage, could give him a ceiling game despite the difficult matchup. Higbee leads our Cash Game Model and Chris Raybon’s Pro Model.
Noah Fant ($2,800 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel): Seattle Seahawks (-3) vs. New York Giants (44.5 total)
Noah Fant has started to earn more of a role in the passing game, seeing 15 targets in the past three weeks after seeing 11 across the first four games. He’s seen his route participation increase as well, as he’s run a route on between 57% and 61% of dropbacks in each of the past three games.
Fant does compete with Will Dissly for targets, as they’ve sort of cannibalized each other’s usage on the year. However, with DK Metcalf likely out of the lineup for Seattle, there are targets to go around. Metcalf has seen a quarter of the team targets on the year, leaving a lot up for grabs.
Seattle may lean on more two-tight end sets to mitigate the loss of Metcalf, relying on familiar personnel as opposed to just slotting in a replacement for Metcalf. The matchup is middling, as the Giants are 15th in touchdown rate allowed to tight ends at 3.5%. Fant is really cheap, so he doesn’t need much to pay off his price tag.
Fant leads both Chris Raybon’s and Sean Koerner’s Pro Models.
Other Notable NFL DFS Tight End Picks
George Kittle ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel): San Francisco 49ers (-1) at Los Angeles Rams (42 total)
Kittle has gotten increasingly more involved the past two weeks, seeing 19 targets in the past two weeks. He caught six balls for 98 yards and a touchdown last week and eight balls for 83 yards two weeks ago. Kittle may be in for an even bigger role this Sunday, as Deebo Samuel is set to miss this matchup. Deebo has seen about a quarter of the team targets on the year, with a lot of them being high-value targets.
Kittle had his worst game of the year when these teams met the first time, catching two of four targets for merely 24 yards. The matchup is difficult, as the Rams have stymied opposing tight ends. They’ve allowed merely a 56% catch rate and a league-low 4.8 yards per target to tight ends.
Dalton Schultz ($3,700 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel): Dallas Cowboys (-10) vs. Chicago Bears (42.5 total)
Dalton Schultz tweaked his lingering knee injury in last week’s game but claims that he is fine. He caught five balls for 49 yards but was limited to running a route on just 57.1% of dropbacks. As he gets healthier and healthier, we’ll likely see that route number increase. Dak Prescott does seem to hone in on Schultz, as he saw his highest target share since Week 1 when Prescott was healthy. He saw 20% of team targets last week and a whopping nine targets in Week 1.
The matchup isn’t too easy, as Chicago ranks tenth in yards per target allowed to tight ends at 6.3 and merely a 2.9% touchdown rate.
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