In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Top NFL DFS Running Back Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two running backs who rank near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Josh Jacobs
- Dameon Pierce
We’ll discuss why these are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other running backs.
Top Model NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Josh Jacobs ($7,500 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel): Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) at New Orleans Saints (49.5 total)
Josh Jacobs continues to command a monster role within the Las Vegas backfield, handling 78% of the team rush attempts and running a route on 51% of team dropbacks on the year. He’s seen 83% of the inside-the-five snaps on the year and has four or more targets in four of six games.
He ran all over the Texans last week, rushing for 155 yards and three touchdowns on 23 touches. He leads all running backs in share of backfield touches with 83.9% while ranking second in success rate at 51.4%. He’s had 33 or more DraftKings points in three straight games, totaling 110.3 over that stretch. He’s probably due for some touchdown regression, as he’s found paydirt six times in his past three games.
The matchup against New Orleans is easier than it’s been in years past, as the Saints have allowed 4.7 yards per carry to opposing backs. They just siphoned 150 yards and two touchdowns to Eno benjamin and Keaontay Ingram last Thursday Night.
Jacobs is second in Projected Plus/Minus on the week and tied for first in Points/Salary. He is the top back in all four models for this weekend.
Dameon Pierce ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel): Houston Texans (+2.5) vs. Tennessee Titans (40.5 total)
Jacobs’ was the top back in all models, but Pierce was a close second in three of four while leading the position in Projected Plus/Minus and tied for the lead in Points/Salary. He’s seen a massive workload this year, with 20+ touches in four straight games, with touch counts of 22, 20, 29, and 24.
He’s totaled 36 DraftKings points over the past two weeks despite missing the 100-yard bonus by 1 and 8 yards in those games. Pierce was close to some monster fantasy scores, which would probably have pumped his price all the way up to around $7,000. For his workload, we’re getting him for fairly cheap.
The matchup is fairly difficult for Pierce, as the Titans are allowing the lowest success rate on running plays at 33.6%, and no running back has hit 100 total yards against them, with just two topping 53 yards. The matchup is as hard as it gets, but Pierce can break big plays and gets the workload needed to produce on potential poor efficiency.
Other Notable NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Alvin Kamara ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel): New Orleans Saints (+1.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (49.5 total)
Since returning from his rib injury in Week 5, Kamara has finally gotten the workload that we hoped for coming into the season. He’s handled 29, 25, and 18 touches in the past three games, going for 194, 124, and 105 total yards. He’s now combined for 63.3 DraftKings points in the last three weeks despite not finding the end zone and missing the 100-yard bonus by one yard in Week 6.
The matchup is exploitable through the air, as Las Vegas has given up the third most fantasy points through the air to opposing running backs. Kamara has been a staple of New Orleans’ passing game, seeing 6, 9, and 9 targets in their past three games.
Kenneth Walker III ($6,500 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel): Seattle Seahawks (-3) vs. New York Giants (44.5 total)
Walker embraced the lead-back role in Week 6, where he turned 23 touches into 113 total yards in a touchdown. He saw 23 touches again last week, erupting for 167 yards and two touchdowns in a double-digit victory over the Los Angeles Chargers. We’d like to see some more consistent usage in the passing game, but we can’t ignore 20+ carries with his explosiveness.
The Seahawks are home favorites which bodes well for Walker. This defense is exploitable, as the Giants allow a monster 5.74 yards per carry, They were recently gashed by Kenyan Drake for 119 yards on 10 carries and 114 yards on 14 carries to Travis Etienne
Tony Pollard ($6,100 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel): Dallas Cowboys (-10) vs. Chicago Bears (42.5 total)
With Ezekiel Elliott likely to miss this matchup for Dallas, it’s going to be the Tony Pollard show. Pollard has one career game with Zeke inactive, in which Pollard parlayed 18 touches in 132 yards and two touchdowns. Pollard has already been able to produce in fantasy on limited touches due to his efficiency. He’s averaging 5.6 yards per carry and 9.5 yards per catch. His efficiency will likely take a slight hit with more volume, but he’s still explosive with the ball.
The Bears have struggled on the ground, giving up 4.58 yards per carry while allowing the fourth most rush attempts per game. If Zeke misses this game, Pollard is a safe bet to produce in fantasy.
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