In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
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Top NFL DFS Running Back Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two running backs near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- D’Andre Swift
- Isiah Pacheco
We’ll discuss why these two are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other running backs.
Top Model NFL DFS Running Back Picks
D’Andre Swift ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel): Eagles (-7) at Washington Commanders (43.5 total)
D’Andre Swift‘s role is secure on one of the most potent offenses in the league. After eliminating Week 1, where he was barely used, he’s averaged 16.67 carries per game and 4.67 targets per game. Those numbers are a little bit inflated by a 28-carry performance and a 10-target performance, but it proves that he can flash a big upside in the usage department.
We can safely project him somewhere closer to 12-15 carries and three targets, which is still plenty of volume in this offense. Jalen Hurts’ goalline role has certainly hurt Swift, but he’s still been able to score well without reaching the end zone.
Once again, removing Week 1, Swift has averaged an impressive 15.65 DraftKings points per game without touchdowns. For what it’s worth, Christian McCaffrey has averaged 16.47 DraftKings points per game without touchdowns.
Swift’s role is clearly elite, and if he can run into some touchdown luck, he’s way underpriced. He’s the top back in Sean Koerner’s Pro Model and our Cash Game Model.
Isiah Pacheco ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-7) at Denver Broncos (47 total)
Isiah Pacheco‘s role in the last two weeks has been very promising, with 10 total targets and 29 carries. If he can stay in the five-target range as opposed to two to three, it would go a long way for his fantasy outlook.
Denver’s defense has turned it around somewhat, but they still got gashed on the ground by Green Bay last week. The Packers’ running backs combined for 179 total yards last week.
Pacheco is set up as a touchdown favorite against a poor defense and has rattled off double-digit DraftKings points in five straight contests. There isn’t too much to complicate here. He’s tied atop the position in Points/Salary and is second in Projected Plus/Minus.
Pacheco checks in as the top back in our Tournament Model and Chris Raybon’s Pro Model.
Other Notable NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Travis Etienne Jr. ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel): Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (41 total)
This matchup would appear daunting in years past, but the 2023 Pittsburgh Steelers are no one to shy away from. They’ve allowed the seventh-most yards per carry to opposing backs and just allowed 127 yards to the Rams’ backfield.
In comes Travis Etienne Jr., who leads the league in touches while seeing a bevy of use on the ground and through the air. He just delivered in a difficult matchup against New Orleans, parlaying 14 carries and three catches into 77 yards and two touchdowns. He’s found the end zone twice in three straight games. This trend is unlikely to continue, but he was due for some positive touchdown regression anyway.
Breece Hall ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel): New York Jets (-3) at New York Giants (36.5 total)
We’ve seen Breece Hall‘s workload consistently increasing, and now he gets a matchup against the paltry Giants off of a bye. Hall has handled over 70% of the backfield touches in back-to-back weeks, and now Dalvin Cook is looking to be traded. The Giants’ run defense has been shredded, allowing the third-most yards per carry to opposing backs on the year.
Hall is trending towards being the highest-owned running back on the slate, but for good reason. He’s a dynamic player at a cheap price, with minimal volume questions in a smash matchup. The only downside would be this overall game environment, with one of the lowest totals on the slate at 36.5. Regardless, Hall looks like a great play.
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My Favorite NFL DFS Runningback Leverage Pick(s)
Alvin Kamara ($7,300 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel): New Orleans Saints (-1) at Indianapolis Colts (43.5 total)
I touched on Christian McCaffrey and D’Andre Swift’s impressive pre-TD DraftKings scoring at 16.47 and 15.65 points per game. Well, insert a third running back who (albeit in a smaller sample size) has averaged 20.2 DraftKings points per game before touchdowns.
Well, ladies and gentlemen, that running back would be none other than Alvin Kamara. Kamara has seen incredible usage thus far, averaging 26 touches and 109.5 scrimmage yards in the four games since returning. This role is insane, and his price is too cheap.
Kamara is set to face off against Indianapolis, who has allowed the sixth-most DraftKings points per game to opposing backs. Both of these teams also play at a very fast pace, so we should see a lot of plays run, leading to more opportunities for Kamara to explode.
Ownership will follow, but I don’t really care. Alvin Kamara is in an absolute smash spot and is my favorite running back play of the weekend.
